Diagnostic accuracy of PAT-POPS and ManChEWS for admissions of children from the emergency department

Background The Pennine Acute Trust (PAT) Paediatric Observation Priority Score (PAT-POPS) is a specific emergency department (ED) physiological and observational aggregate scoring system, with scores of 0–18. A higher score indicates greater likelihood of admission. The Manchester Children’s Early Warning System (ManChEWS) assesses six physiological observations to create a trigger score, classified as Green, Amber or Red. Methods Prospectively collected data were used to calculate PAT-POPS and ManChEWS on 2068 patients aged under 16 years (mean 5.6 years, SD 4.6) presenting over 1 month to a UK District General Hospital Paediatric ED. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) comparison, using STATA V.13, was used to investigate the ability of ManChEWS and PAT-POPS to predict admission to hospital within 72 h of presentation to the ED. Results Comparison of the area under the ROC curve indicates that the ManChEWS ROC is 0.67 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.70) and the PAT-POPS ROC is 0.72 (95% CI 0.68 to 0.75). The difference is statistically significant. At a PAT-POPS cut-off of ≥2, 80% of patients had their admission risk correctly classified ( positive likelihood ratio 3.40, 95% CI 2.90 to 3.98) whereas for ManChEWS with a cut off of ≥Amber only 71% of patients were correctly classified ( positive likelihood ratio 2.18, 95% CI 1.94 to 2.45). Conclusions PAT-POPS is a more accurate predictor of admission risk than ManChEWS. Replacing ManChEWS with PAT-POPS would appear to be clinically appropriate in a paediatric ED. This needs validation in a multicentre study

Understanding the response of sorghum cultivars to nitrogen applications in the semi-arid Nigeria using the agricultural production systems simulator

The Agricultural Production Systems simulator (APSIM) model was calibrated and evaluated using two improved sorghum varieties conducted in an experiment designed in a randomized complete block, 2014–2016 at two research stations in Nigeria. The results show that the model replicated the observed yield accounting for yield differences and variations in phenological development between the two sorghum cultivars. For early-maturing cultivar (ICSV-400), the model indicated by low accuracy with root means square error (RMSE) for biomass and grain yields of 20.3% and 23.7%. Meanwhile, Improved-Deko (medium-maturing) cultivar shows the model was calibrated with low RMSE (11.1% for biomass and 13.9% for grain). Also, the model captured yield response to varying Nitrogen (N) fertilizer applications in the three agroecological zones simulated. The N-fertilizer increased simulated grain yield by 26–52% for ICSV-400 and 19–50% for Improved-Deko compared to unfertilized treatment in Sudano-Sahelian zone. The insignificant yield differences between N-fertilizer rates of 60 and 100 kgha−1 suggests 60 kgNha−1 as the optimal rate for Sudano-Sahelian zone. Similarly, grain yield increased by 23–57% for ICSV-400 and 19–59% for Improved Deko compared to unfertilized N-treatment while the optimal mean grain yield was simulated at 80 kgNha−1 in the Sudan savanna zone. In the northern Guinea savanna, mean simulated grain yield increased by 8–20% for ICSV-400 and 12–23% for Improved-Deko when N-fertilizer was applied compared to unfertilized treatment. Optimum grain yield was obtained at 40 kgha−1. Our study suggests a review of blanket recommended fertilizer rates across semi-arid environments for sorghum to maximize productivity and eliminate fertilizer losses, means of adaptation strategies to climate variability

Seed Needs Assessment in Northeastern Nigeria

Harnessing the genetic potential inherent in crops for higher yields requires the supporting role of all inputs (Manjunatha et al., 2015), of which, quality seed is the most important. In many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), a recurrent conflict has become a major factor distorting the availability of quality seeds and the seed system; this has since been the case in northeastern Nigeria. Farmers need quality seeds and planting materials of preferred crops to enable them resume agricultural activities after conflicts. Similarly, seed security is an important component of overall resilience in risk prone environments (FAO, 2016). This study was set-out to analyze existing seed systems in Borno, Adamawa and Yobe States of Northern Nigeria in order to identify practical ways of improving farmer’s access to quality seed

Elemental Composition Analysis of Soil Samples from Bayelsa State in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria

This study analysis the elemental composition and concentration of elements in the soils of the study area to ascertain degree of elemental enhancement in the soil resulting from anthropogenic activities with possible soil contamination, human health and environmental detriment. The study area was divided into eight grids and two soil samples per grid from over burden to a depth of 900mm was collected randomly in each grid. The samples were prepared using standard methods and analyzed with a linear accelerator. The number of detectable elements and their quantitative information was extracted from the elemental spectral signatures. . The result showed a high concentration value in some elements in the soil samples above values of elemental concentrations in soils from other reported studied region. In addition, Aluminium, Strontium, Barium, Gallium etc also showed an extremely high value in their concentration that exceeds the world wide mean range upper limit values in crustal soil study published. The study indicates some degree of potential contamination and therefore necessitate a regular periodic monitoring study to reduce potential health detriment to humans and the environment to as low as reasonably possible

Spatial Distribution of Radiometric and Dosimetric Parameters in Soil Samples from Selected Areas in Bayelsa State, Nigeria

Radiation from radioactive materials/radionuclides in the environment enhanced by anthropogenic activities is presently of a great concern globally. The objective of this study is to determine the radiometric and dosimetric parameters from soil samples collected randomly from the study area of Bayelsa State, Nigeria. The samples were prepared using standard methods and analyzed with a high resolution Hyperpure Germanium Detector configuration (HPGe). The results showed the clay samples to have higher activity concentration to the sands samples with activity concentration of clay samples ranging between 68.99±9.05 –189, 42±21.11Bq/kg and the sand samples with activity concentration range of 17.95±5.87 – 38.59±7.43Bq/kg. The activity concentration spatial distribution map in clay lithologies showed 2 peak values trending north-west, while the sand lithology showed a single peak central distribution. The result also showed the values of the absorbed doses with the 8 clay samples values ranging between 59.09 - 155.25nGy/h and sand samples values between 17.90 – 33.92nGy/h. The spatial distribution of the dose showed 2 peak central distribution in clay samples and north-east trending distribution of high peak values for samples with sand lithologies.  In addition, the results showed an effective absorbed dose of range of 0.235-0.0616mSv/y for samples with clay lithology and 0.0071-0.0135mSv/y for samples with sand lithology The activity concentration of all the samples studied are below the 1000Bq/kg international reference limit  for Radium 226, Thorium 232, uranium 238 and 10,000Bq/kg for potassium 40. The absorbed dose rate and annual effective absorbed dose are also below the international reference limits published by ICRP, 2007 and UNSCEAR, 2000 publications. Also, effective activity maximum limit of 370Bq/kg for input raw materials for public building is not exceeded

Productivity, Water- and Nitrogen-Use Efficiency, and Profitability of Pearl Millet (Pennisetum glaucum) under Different Nitrogen Applications in Semiarid Region of Nigeria

An experiment was conducted to examine the performance of pearl millet under different nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates in two locations in the semiarid zone of Nigeria. *e objective was to evaluate the effects of different N rates on pearl millet yields, water and nitrogen-use efficiency, and profitability. Grain yield increased by 23, 26, 32, 32, and 27% and by 38, 41, 54, 58, and 56% compared to unfertilized plots when applying 20, 40, 60, 80, and 100 kg Nha−1 in Minjibir and Gambawa, respectively. Similarly, stalk yield increased by 4, 3, 9, 9, and 9% and by 16, 24, 36, 40, and 37% compared to unfertilized plot when applying 20, 40, 60, 80, and 100 kg Nha−1 in Minjibir and Gambawa, respectively. *e variations in GY that could be explained by TWU and NUE were 28% and 26% in Minjibir and 46% and 41%, respectively, in Gambawa. *ere was a strong and positive correlation (R = 0.81 and R = 0.95) between WUE and GY across N-fertilizer rates and pearl millet varieties in both locations. An increase in N-fertilizer levels increased WUE, confirming the optimal application of 60 kg Nha−1 in Minjibir and of 80 kg Nha−1 in Gambawa. Similarly, the highest net economic return (NER) of US$610 ha−1 was obtained at 60 kg Nha−1 in Minjibir and the highest NER of US$223 ha−1 was obtained at an application rate of 80 kg Nha−1 in Gambawa. Break-even yield was above 1000 kg ha−1, signifying that average farmer with a mean yield of less than 1000 kg ha−1 produces millet at a loss

Response of pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum L.) to plant population in the semi-arid environments of Nigeria

Low planting densities and use of unimproved varieties contribute to the low yields of pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum L.) in Nigeria. Field experiments were conducted during the 2013 and 2014 growing seasons, to evaluate the response of pearl millet varieties to varying plant hill population in semi-arid environments of Nigeria. Year, variety and plant hill population had significant (p ≤ 0.05) effect on days to 50% flowering, grain and stalk yields. With exception of Sosat-C88 at 8,889 hills ha-1, the grain and stalk yields of pearl millet varieties were found to be significantly higher at higher hill populations than lower hill populations in both locations. Plant chlorophyll content (SPAD) at 21 DAS (days after sowing) was higher and significantly correlated with grain yields in Minjibir than value at 42 DAS. Similarly, leaf area index (LAI) at 42 DAS was significantly correlated with grains than at 63 DAS. Increasing hill population to 13,333, 26,667 and 53,333 hills ha-1 increased grain yield by 5.8, 5.3 and 4.5% in Minjibir and by 14.3, 18.7 and 10.1% in Gambawa respectively compared to 8,889 hills ha-1. Similarly, stalk yields increased with increased plant hill population, which ranged from 6 to 23% at Minjibir and 11 to 15% at Gambawa over 8,889 hills ha- 1. Sosat-C88 was found to produce higher yield across the different hills population than the other varieties tested with mean yield gained by 17% in Minjibir and 19.3% in Gambawa over local variety. Results suggest no blanket recommendation for the hill population across the varieties; GB8765 attained an optimal yield at a population of 13,333 hills ha-1 in both locations beyond which grain yield decline. Sosat-C88 produced an optimum yield at lower population of 8,889 hills ha-1 at Minjibir and higher population of 26,667 hills ha-1 at Gambawa while local variety an optimal yield was stable at 26,667 hills ha-1 in both locations

Establishing Optimal Planting Windows for Contrasting Sorghum Cultivars across Diverse Agro-Ecologies of North-Eastern Nigeria: A Modelling Approach

In the context of climate change, the sowing date and cultivar choice can influence the productivity of sorghum, especially where production is constrained by low soil fertility and early terminal drought across the challenging agro-ecologies of north-eastern Nigeria. Planting within an optimal sowing window to fit the cultivar’s maturity length is critical for maximizing/increasing the crop yield following the appropriate climate-smart management practices. In this study, the APSIM crop model was calibrated and validated to simulate the growth and yield of sorghum cultivars with differing maturing periods sown within varying planting time windows under improved agricultural practices. The model was run to simulate long-term crop performance from 1985 to 2010 to determine the optimal planting windows (PWs) and most suitable cultivars across different agro-ecological zones (AEZs). The performance of the model, validated with the observed farm-level grain yield, was satisfactory across all planting dates and cropping systems. The model predicted a lower mean bias error (MBE), either positive or negative, under the sole cropping system in the July sowing month compared to in the June and August sowing months. The seasonal climate simulations across sites and AEZs suggested increased yields when using adapted sorghum cultivars based on the average grain yield threshold of >1500 kgha-1 against the national average of 1160 kgha-1. In the Sudan Savanna (SS), the predicted optimum PWs ranged from 25 May to 30 June for CSR01 and Samsorg-44, while the PWs could be extended to 10 July for ICSV400 and Improved Deko. In the Northern Guinea Savanna (NGS) and Southern Guinea Savanna (SGS), the optimal PWs ranged from 25 May to 10 July for all cultivars except for SK5912, for which predicted optimal PWs ranged from 25 May to 30 June. In the NGS zone, all cultivars were found to be suitable for cultivation with exception of SK5912. Meanwhile, in the SGS zone, the simulated yield below the threshold (1500 kgha-1) could be explained by the sandy soil and the very low soil fertility observed there. It was concluded that farm decisions to plant within the predicted optimal PWs alongside the use of adapted sorghum cultivars would serve as key adaptation strategies for increasing the sorghum productivity in the three AEZs

Efficiency of molecular markers to select for Striga gesnerioides resistance in cowpca [Vigna unguiculata (L.)Walp]

Striga gesnerioides (Willd) Vatke is a major biological constraint to cowpea productivity in the dl) savannas of sub-Saharan Africa. Over the last two decades, the use of molecular markers in crop improvemem has gained prominence owing to its ability to sh0l1en the breeding cycle. The available molecular markel techniques are being improved upon and continuously tested for higher preci sion, shOl1er duration of application and better cost effectiveness. [n the present study, a total of four molecular markers developed for selecting Slriga resistant cowpea were used to genotype F2 population derived from a cross between Borno Brown and [T97K-499-35 to identify markers more close ly linked to S. gesnerioides resistance. SSRI and 2 were found 10 be tight ly linked to Striga gesnerioides with a genetic distance of 1 and 2cM.The selection efficiency of SS~I and SSR-2 were 99 and 98 % and was better than that of C42-B 85.5%