A Transition to Which Bioeconomy? An Exploration of Diverging Techno-Political Choices

To date the concept of the bioeconomy - an economy based primarily on biogenic instead of fossil resources - has largely been associated with visions of "green growth" and the advancement of biotechnology and has been framed from within an industrial perspective. However, there is no consensus as to what a bioeconomy should effectively look like, and what type of society it would sustain. In this paper, we identify different types of narratives constructed around this concept and carve out the techno-political implications they convey. We map these narratives on a two-dimensional option space, which allows for a rough classification of narratives and their related imaginaries into four paradigmatic quadrants. We draw the narratives from three different sources: (i) policy documents of national and supra-national authorities; (ii) stakeholder interviews; and (iii) scenarios built in a biophysical modelling exercise. Our analysis shows that there is a considerable gap between official policy papers and visions supported by stakeholders. At least in the case of Austria there is also a gap between the official strategies and the option space identified through biophysical modelling. These gaps testify to the highly political nature of the concept of the bioeconomy and the diverging visions of society arising from it

Agroecological practices in combination with healthy diets can help meet EU food system policy targets

Agroecology has been proposed as a strategy to improve food system sustainability, but has also been criticised for using land inefficiently. We compared five explorative storylines, developed in a stakeholder process, for future food systems in the EU to 2050. We modelled a range of biophysical (e.g., land use and food production), environmental (e.g., greenhouse gas emissions) and social indicators, and potential for regional food self-sufficiency, and investigated the economic policy needed to reach these futures by 2050. Two contrasting storylines for upscaling agroecological practices emerged. In one, agroecology was implemented to produce high-value products serving high-income consumers through trade but, despite 40 of agricultural area being under organic management, only two out of eight EU environmental policy targets were met. As diets followed current trends in this storyline, there were few improvements in environmental indicators compared with the current situation, despite large-scale implementation of agroecological farming practices. This suggests that large-scale implementation of agroecological practices without concurrent changes on the demand side could aggravate existing environmental pressures. However, our second agroecological storyline showed that if large-scale diffusion of agroecological farming practices were implemented alongside drastic dietary change and waste reductions, major improvements on environmental indicators could be achieved and all relevant EU policy targets met. An alternative storyline comprising sustainable intensification in combination with dietary change and waste reductions was efficient in meeting targets related to climate, biodiversity, ammonia emissions, and use of antibiotics, but did not meet targets for reductions in pesticide and fertiliser use. These results confirm the importance of dietary change for food system climate change mitigation. Economic modelling showed a need for drastic changes in consumer preferences towards more plant-based, agroecological and local foods, and for improvements in technology, for these storylines to be realised, as very high taxes and tariffs would otherwise be needed

Impacts of Scaling up Agroecology on the Sustainability of European Agriculture in 2050

The European Commission recently embraced the concept of agroecology as a pathway to reduce negative impacts from agri-food systems on the environment. So far, it remains unclear whether agroecology can deliver on these high hopes if implemented on a large scale. We here assess socio-economic and environmental implications of multiple agroecological futures in the European Union in 2050, based on a novel diagnostic scenario approach, i.e. the biomass balancing model BioBaM-GHG 2.0. We find that agroecological measures from the plot to the food systems level can indeed reduce environmental pressures while maintaining domestic food availability within the EU. Such measures are, for example, more hedgerows on croplands or reduced biomass harvest on high natural value – HNV grasslands. However, a key prerequisite is an overall reduction of the food system's size (based on the reduction of animal production, food wastes, and export production) and an optimised crop-livestock integration. Only then does the transformation towards an agroecological agri-food system in the EU not risk overstretching domestic land availability or produce insufficient agricultural commodities. Mitigating the accompanied trade-off of reduced farm income is a central mandate for policy development aimed at re-designing agriculture in Europe to align with the Green Deal goals

Impacts of Scaling up Agroecology on the Sustainability of European Agriculture in 2050

The European Commission recently embraced the concept of agroecology as a pathway to reduce negative impacts from agri-food systems on the environment. So far, it remains unclear whether agroecology can deliver on these high hopes if implemented on a large scale. We here assess socio-economic and environmental implications of multiple agroecological futures in the European Union in 2050, based on a novel diagnostic scenario approach, i.e. the biomass balancing model BioBaM-GHG 2.0. We find that agroecological measures from the plot to the food systems level can indeed reduce environmental pressures while maintaining domestic food availability within the EU. Such measures are, for example, more hedgerows on croplands or reduced biomass harvest on high natural value – HNV grasslands. However, a key prerequisite is an overall reduction of the food system's size (based on the reduction of animal production, food wastes, and export production) and an optimised crop-livestock integration. Only then does the transformation towards an agroecological agri-food system in the EU not risk overstretching domestic land availability or produce insufficient agricultural commodities. Mitigating the accompanied trade-off of reduced farm income is a central mandate for policy development aimed at re-designing agriculture in Europe to align with the Green Deal goals

Cost-resource curves of biomass potentials in Austria and other central European countries

Zsfassung in dt. Sprache12

Carbon dynamics and GHG implications of increasing wood construction: long-term scenarios for residential buildings in Austria

Wooden construction elements often exhibit lower life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than conventional counterparts (‘material substitution effect’). Moreover, the building stock represents a carbon (C) sink if timber inflows (construction) surpass outflows (demolition) (‘C-stock effect’). A dynamic stock model incorporating these effects is applied to quantify potential climate benefits of wood construction in Austria's residential building sector. If present trends are maintained, culminating in a wood construction share (WCS) of 50% during 2050-2100, building shells could contain three times as much C in 2100 as today. Annual timber demand for residential construction could double, but would remain well below Austria's current net exports. Compared to a baseline scenario with constant WCS (22%), cumulated GHG savings from material substitution until 2050 are estimated 2 to 4.2 Tg CO2-equivalent – clearly less than savings from C-stock expansion (9.2 Tg). Savings from both effects would double in a highly ambitious scenario (WCS=80% during 2050-2100). The applied ’Stock Change Approach’ is consistent with IPCC Guidelines, but the above-mentioned savings from C-stock changes would not materialize under the current default GHG inventory accounting approach. Moreover, savings from C-stock effects must eventually be weighed against forest C-stock changes, as growing domestic demand might stimulate wood harvesting

An assessment of the implications, costs and benefits of bioenergy use based on techno-economic approaches

In Österreich und anderen mitteleuropäischen Ländern ist es in den letzten Jahren zu einer starken Ausweitung der energetischen Biomassenutzung gekommen. In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden die Kosten und Nutzen, sowie die Perspektiven und Implikationen der Energieerzeugung aus Biomasse mithilfe techno-ökonomischer Ansätze analysiert.Im ersten Teil der Arbeit werden die Kosten der Treibhausgaseinsparung und Substitution fossiler Energieträger ermittelt, die mit dem Einsatz verschiedener Bioenergie-Technologien verbunden sind. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Biomasse-Heizsysteme und -Heizwerke häufig die kosteneffizienteste Option darstellen, unter günstigen Rahmenbedingungen jedoch mit Biomasse-Kraft-Wärme-Kopplung höhere spezifische Einsparungen (bezogen auf den Primärenergieeinsatz) erzielbar sind. Im Gegensatz dazu ist die Nutzung synthetischer biogener Kraftstoffe mit verhältnismäßig geringen Einsparungen verbunden; dies stellt einen wesentlichen Nachteil dieser Nutzungspfade dar, selbst wenn die Produktionskosten durch technologischen Fortschritt längerfristig erheblich sinken sollten.Im zweiten Teil werden statistische Daten zur derzeitigen Biomassenutzung, internationalem Biomassehandel und Abschätzungen von primärenergetischen Potenzialen in Mitteleuropa einer kritischen Prüfung unterzogen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen sowohl hinsichtlich der Struktur der Biomassenutzung, als auch hinsichtlich der ungenutzten Potenziale in den einzelnen Ländern ein sehr heterogenes Bild. Verschiedene methodische Ansätze zur Analyse von Handelsströmen ergeben, dass internationaler Biomassehandel sukzessive an Bedeutung gewinnt; insbesondere im Bereich der biogenen Kraftstoffe, wo Österreich und Mitteleuropa zunehmend auf Importe angewiesen sind. Neben den in Energiestatistiken erfassten direkten Handelsströmen spielen indirekter Biomassehandel und Importe von Rohstoffen zur Erzeugung biogener Kraftstoffe eine wesentliche Rolle. Im Fall von Österreich liegen diese in Summe in der gleichen Größenordnung wie direkte Handelsströme.Teil 3 befasst sich mit der Modellierung des Bioenergie-Sektors auf Basis eines techno-ökonomischen Ansatzes, der im Simulationsmodell SimBioSys implementiert wurde. Mit dem Modell erstellte längerfristige Szenarien des österreichischen Bioenergie-Sektors zeigen, welche Rolle Biomasse in einem zukünftigen Energiesystem zukommen kann, und unterstreichen die Bedeutung zielorientierter, auf die effizientesten Nutzungspfade fokussierter Förderstrategien.Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase the share of renewable energy have led to notable progress in bioenergy use in Austria and other Central European countries in recent years. Within this thesis, crucial aspects regarding the implications and prospects of bioenergy are assessed based on techno-economic approaches. In the first part of this work, the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation and fossil fuel replacement of bioenergy technologies are assessed for the specific situation in Austria. The results indicate that biomass heating systems and heating plants are often the most cost-efficient option. Under favourable conditions, the use of combined heat and power plants allows for higher quantities of greenhouse gas mitigation and fossil fuel replacement per unit of biomass consumed. A relatively poor performance with regard to this criterion is the main drawback of advanced biofuels, albeit that technological progress may result in substantial reductions in production costs.In the second part, statistical data on the current biomass use and international biomass trade, as well as literature data on biomass potentials in Central Europe are reviewed critically. With regard to the structure of bioenergy use and unused biomass potentials, the situations in the considered countries prove to be very inhomogeneous. Different methodologies applied for assessing cross-border trade related to bioenergy indicate that the most significant streams in the Central European region are imports of wood fuels to Italy, Denmark and Austria.The recent growth in the consumption of biofuels for transport is resulting in rapidly increasing trade volumes and a growing dependence on biofuel imports. For the case of Austria it is shown that with feedstock for biofuel production and indirect trade streams taken into account, cross-border trade of biomass is about twice as high as energy statistics suggest.Part III is dedicated to the question of how future developments of the bioenergy sector can be modelled based on techno-economic approaches, in order to derive well-founded medium to long-term scenarios. The modelling approach applied in the simulation tool SimBioSys, its fundamental principles and exemplary simulation results for the Austrian bioenergy sector are presented. The simulation results emphasize that bioenergy has a crucial role to play in enhancing energy security, reducing GHG emission and substituting fossil fuels in Austria.Furthermore, they indicate that due to the numerous options of bioenergy use, a strategic and targeted promotion of the most efficient applications is of crucial importance for the economic and environmental efficiency of the bioenergy sector.19

Exploring the option space for land system futures at regional to global scales: The diagnostic agro-food, land use and greenhouse gas emission model BioBaM-GHG 2.0

Close to 40% of Earth's land area is used for agriculture to provide humankind with plant- and animal-based food, fibers or bioenergy. Future trends in agricultural land use, livestock husbandry and associated environmental pressures are determined by developments in the food sector, agricultural productivity, technology, and many other influencing factors. Scenario analysis helps to understand their complex interaction and obtain quantitative insight. We here present an in-depth description of the agricultural land use model BioBaM-GHG 2.0 (“BioBaM”), designed for evaluating large numbers of agricultural and livestock production scenarios assembled on the basis of exogenous assumptions on food systems, crop yields and other factors. BioBaM determines the feasibility of specific parameter combinations and the corresponding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural activities, livestock husbandry, land-use change and other activities. We provide a description of the software environment, the model's data structures, input and output variables and model algorithms. To illustrate the model's capabilities and the scope of model applications, we describe two exemplary studies performed with BioBaM: We assess implications of agro-ecological innovations and the feasibility of their widespread application in order to illustrate their implications in terms of agricultural self-sufficiency and GHG emissions. This first case study aligns a small number of individual scenarios with qualitative storylines. We also showcase a ”biophysical option space approach”, which represents a comprehensive sensitivity analysis regarding the multidimensional uncertainties inherent to main influencing parameters, i.e. projections for diets and yields; assumptions on cropland use for bioenergy, and regarding grassland intensification. The global potential of forest regeneration for climate change mitigation serves as an example for this second approach. The option space comprises 90 scenarios and encompasses the full range of literature estimates on GHG mitigation from afforestation in 2050 (0.5 – 7 Gt CO2/yr). It further shows that the potential is zero under certain diet-yield-combinations. Assuming zero energy crop cultivation and global convergence to a healthy reference diet, the sequestration potential of afforestation rises to 10 Gt CO2/yr in 2050. These exemplary applications illustrate how option spaces developed with BioBaM can complement scenario-based assessments that usually focus on small numbers of individual scenarios: Option spaces shift attention to a wider scope of conceivable futures and thus support a comprehensive view on systemic relations and dependencies, whereas analyses with few scenarios allow apprehension of much more detailed scenario narratives and qualifications

Lernpsychologie

Die Anwendung lernpsychologischer Erkenntnisse und Grundlagen in der Personalentwicklung, wie sie im Institut für Angewandte Psychologie (IAP) in Zürich praktiziert wird, wird beschrieben. Zunächst wird aufgezeigt, dass Lernen als Prozess der Persönlichkeitsentwicklung verstanden werden kann, der im betrieblichen Umfeld in der Lern-, Führungs- und Unternehmenskultur eingebettet ist und unter den Kriterien arbeitsplatzbezogener Anforderungsprofile organisiert werden muss. Dann wird folgenden Fragen nachgegangen: Was wird unter "Lernen" verstanden? Wie lernen Erwachsene? Was braucht ein erwachsenengerechter Unterricht? Was macht guten Unterricht aus? Welche Kriterien für nachhaltiges Erwachsenenlernen gibt es? Was zeichnet gute Ausbilderinnen bzw. Ausbilder aus? Die Voraussetzungen für gelingende Lernprozesse werden aus neurobiologischer Sicht erörtert. Ausserdem werden, basierend auf einem konstruktivistischen Lernverständnis, Gestaltungsmöglichkeiten für den eigenen Lernprozess besprochen. Dabei wird die Bedeutung einer Lerntypenkategorisierung im Kontext einer ganzheitlichen, individuellen Förderung von Selbstlernkompetenz, Metakognition und der Beeinflussung der Lernumgebung fokussiert. Anschliessend werden die Unterschiedlichkeiten im Lernen in Bezug auf Geschlecht und kulturelle Herkunft betrachtet