The impact of avian influenza on small and medium scale poultry producers in South East Asia (preliminary findings).

Preliminary findings of the economic impact of avian influenza on poultry farmers in South East Asia is reported. Total economic losses in Indonesia are estimated at more than US$387 million; in Vietnam direct economic losses are estimated at more than US$200 million. Probit and economic surplus results are pending.Livestock Production/Industries,

The Costs, Benefits and Human Behaviours for Antimicrobial Use in Small Commercial Broiler Chicken Systems in Indonesia

There are growing concerns over the threat to human health from the unregulated use of antimicrobials in livestock. Broiler production is of great economic and social importance in Indonesia. This study used a structured questionnaire approach to explore the human behaviours and economic drivers associated with antimicrobial use in small commercial broiler systems in Indonesia (n = 509). The study showed that antimicrobial use was high with farmers easily able to access antimicrobials through local animal medicine, however, it was difficult for farmers to access veterinary advice on responsible antimicrobial use. The most significant finding was that the relative cost of antimicrobials was low, and farmers observed improvements in productivity rates from routine antimicrobial administration. However, farmers seldom kept detailed records on farm productivity or economic costs; this is a hurdle to undertaking a more detailed economic analysis of antimicrobial use. There is a need for further research on the cost-effectiveness of alternative methods of preventing disease and ensuring that feasible alternatives are easily available. Farm-level economics and securing the food supply chain need to be central to any future policy interventions to reduce antimicrobial use in broiler systems in Indonesia and this observation is relevant at a regional and global level.</jats:p

Social network analysis for the assessment of pig, cattle and buffalo movement in Xayabouli, Lao PDR

The aim of this study is to understand the role that the movement patterns of pigs, cattle and buffalo play in the spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). A cross-sectional survey consisting of a questionnaire was used in a hotspot area for FMD: Xayabouli Province, Lao People’s Democratic Republic. A total of 189 respondents were interviewed. We found that the key players in this network were people who were involved with more than one species of animal or occupation (multipurpose occupational node), which represents the highest number of activities of animals moved off the holding (shown with the highest out-degree centrality) and a high likelihood of being an intermediary between others (shown with the highest betweenness centrality). Moreover, the results show that the animals moved to and away from each node had few connections. Some nodes (such as traders) always received animals from the same group of cattle owners at different times. The subgroup connection within this network has many weak components, which means a connection in this network shows that some people can be reached by others, but most people were not. In this way, the number of connections present in the network was low when we defined the proportion of observed connections with all possible connections (density). These findings indicate that the network might not be busy; only one type of node is dominant which enables increased control of disease spread. We recommend that the relevant authorities implement control measures regarding the key players, which is the best way to effectively control the spread of infectious diseases

Modelling H5N1 in Bangladesh across spatial scales : model complexity and zoonotic transmission risk

Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 remains a persistent public health threat, capable of causing infection in humans with a high mortality rate while simultaneously negatively impacting the livestock industry. A central question is to determine regions that are likely sources of newly emerging influenza strains with pandemic causing potential. A suitable candidate is Bangladesh, being one of the most densely populated countries in the world and having an intensifying farming system. It is therefore vital to establish the key factors, specific to Bangladesh, that enable both continued transmission within poultry and spillover across the human–animal interface. We apply a modelling framework to H5N1 epidemics in the Dhaka region of Bangladesh, occurring from 2007 onwards, that resulted in large outbreaks in the poultry sector and a limited number of confirmed human cases. This model consisted of separate poultry transmission and zoonotic transmission components. Utilising poultry farm spatial and population information a set of competing nested models of varying complexity were fitted to the observed case data, with parameter inference carried out using Bayesian methodology and goodness-of-fit verified by stochastic simulations. For the poultry transmission component, successfully identifying a model of minimal complexity, which enabled the accurate prediction of the size and spatial distribution of cases in H5N1 outbreaks, was found to be dependent on the administration level being analysed. A consistent outcome of non-optimal reporting of infected premises materialised in each poultry epidemic of interest, though across the outbreaks analysed there were substantial differences in the estimated transmission parameters. The zoonotic transmission component found the main contributor to spillover transmission of H5N1 in Bangladesh was found to differ from one poultry epidemic to another. We conclude by discussing possible explanations for these discrepancies in transmission behaviour between epidemics, such as changes in surveillance sensitivity and biosecurity practices

Intense circulation of A/H5N1 and other avian influenza viruses in Cambodian live-bird markets with serological evidence of sub-clinical human infections

Surveillance for avian influenza viruses (AIVs) in poultry and environmental samples was conducted in four live-bird markets in Cambodia from January through November 2013. Through real-time RT-PCR testing, AIVs were detected in 45% of 1048 samples collected throughout the year. Detection rates ranged from 32% and 18% in duck and chicken swabs, respectively, to 75% in carcass wash water samples. Influenza A/H5N1 virus was detected in 79% of samples positive for influenza A virus and 35% of all samples collected. Sequence analysis of full-length haemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) genes from A/H5N1 viruses, and full-genome analysis of six representative isolates, revealed that the clade 1.1.2 reassortant virus associated with Cambodian human cases during 2013 was the only A/H5N1 virus detected during the year. However, multiplex reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) analysis of HA and NA genes revealed co-circulation of at least nine low pathogenic AIVs from HA1, HA2, HA3, HA4, HA6, HA7, HA9, HA10 and HA11 subtypes. Four repeated serological surveys were conducted throughout the year in a cohort of 125 poultry workers. Serological testing found an overall prevalence of 4.5% and 1.8% for antibodies to A/H5N1 and A/H9N2, respectively. Seroconversion rates of 3.7 and 0.9 cases per 1000 person-months participation were detected for A/H5N1 and A/H9N2, respectively. Peak AIV circulation was associated with the Lunar New Year festival. Knowledge of periods of increased circulation of avian influenza in markets should inform intervention measures such as market cleaning and closures to reduce risk of human infections and emergence of novel AIVs

Free-grazing Ducks and Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, Thailand

Free-grazing ducks in rice paddies are a critical factor in the spread and persistence of avian influenza

The impact of surveillance and control on highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in poultry in Dhaka division, Bangladesh

In Bangladesh, the poultry industry is an economically and socially important sector, but it is persistently threatened by the effects of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza. Thus, identifying the optimal control policy in response to an emerging disease outbreak is a key challenge for policy-makers. To inform this aim, a common approach is to carry out simulation studies comparing plausible strategies, while accounting for known capacity restrictions. In this study we perform simulations of a previously developed H5N1 influenza transmission model framework, fitted to two separate historical outbreaks, to assess specific control objectives related to the burden or duration of H5N1 outbreaks among poultry farms in the Dhaka division of Bangladesh. In particular, we explore the optimal implementation of ring culling, ring vaccination and active surveillance measures when presuming disease transmission predominately occurs from premises-to-premises, versus a setting requiring the inclusion of external factors. Additionally, we determine the sensitivity of the management actions under consideration to differing levels of capacity constraints and outbreaks with disparate transmission dynamics. While we find that reactive culling and vaccination policies should pay close attention to these factors to ensure intervention targeting is optimised, across multiple settings the top performing control action amongst those under consideration were targeted proactive surveillance schemes. Our findings may advise the type of control measure, plus its intensity, that could potentially be applied in the event of a developing outbreak of H5N1 amongst originally H5N1 virus-free commercially-reared poultry in the Dhaka division of Bangladesh

Characterizing Antimicrobial Use in the Livestock Sector in Three South East Asian Countries (Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam)

A framework was developed to characterize the antimicrobial use/antimicrobial resistance complex in livestock systems in Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand. Farm profitability, disease prevention, and mortality rate reduction were identified as drivers toward antimicrobial use in livestock systems. It revealed that antimicrobial use was high in all sectors studied, and that routine preventative use was of particular importance to broiler production systems. Misleading feed labeling was identified as a hurdle to the collection of accurate antimicrobial use data, with farmers being unaware of the antimicrobials contained in some commercial feed. Economic analysis found that the cost of antimicrobials was low relative to other farm inputs, and that farm profitability was precariously balanced. High disease and poor prices were identified as potential drivers toward economic loss. The research indicates that antimicrobial use in small-scale poultry production systems improves feed conversion ratios and overall productivity. However, data were limited to quantify adequately these potential gains and their impacts on the food supply. During the study, all countries embraced and implemented policies on better management of antimicrobial use in livestock and surveillance of antimicrobial resistance. Future policies need to consider farm-level economics and livestock food supply issues when developing further antimicrobial use interventions in the region