Forecasting Design Day Demand Using Extremal Quantile Regression

Extreme events occur rarely, making them difficult to predict. Extreme cold events strain natural gas systems to their limits. Natural gas distribution companies need to be prepared to satisfy demand on any given day that is at or warmer than an extreme cold threshold. The hypothetical day with temperature at this threshold is called the Design Day. To guarantee Design Day demand is satisfied, distribution companies need to determine the demand that is unlikely to be exceeded on the Design Day. We approach determining this demand as an extremal quantile regression problem. We review current methods for extremal quantile regression. We implement a quantile forecast to estimate the demand that has a minimal chance of being exceeded on the design day. We show extremal quantile regression to be more reliable than direct quantile estimation. We discuss the difficult task of evaluating a probabilistic forecast on rare events. Probabilistic forecasting is a quickly growing research topic in the field of energy forecasting. Our paper contributes to this field in three ways. First, we forecast quantiles during extreme cold events where data is sparse. Second, we forecast extremely high quantiles that have a very low probability of being exceeded. Finally, we provide a real world scenario on which to apply these techniques

A new glance at the chemosphere of macroalgal–bacterial interactions: In situ profiling of metabolites in symbiosis by mass spectrometry

Symbiosis is a dominant form of life that has been observed numerous times in marine ecosystems. For example, macroalgae coexist with bacteria that produce factors that promote algal growth and morphogenesis. The green macroalga Ulva mutabilis (Chlorophyta) develops into a callus-like phenotype in the absence of its essential bacterial symbionts Roseovarius sp. MS2 and Maribacter sp. MS6. Spatially resolved studies are required to understand symbiont interactions at the microscale level. Therefore, we used mass spectrometry profiling and imaging techniques with high spatial resolution and sensitivity to gain a new perspective on the mutualistic interactions between bacteria and macroalgae. Using atmospheric pressure scanning microprobe matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionisation high-resolution mass spectrometry (AP-SMALDI-HRMS), low-molecular-weight polar compounds were identified by comparative metabolomics in the chemosphere of Ulva. Choline (2-hydroxy-N,N,N-trimethylethan-1-aminium) was only determined in the alga grown under axenic conditions, whereas ectoine (1,4,5,6-tetrahydro-2-methyl-4-pyrimidinecarboxylic acid) was found in bacterial presence. Ectoine was used as a metabolic marker for localisation studies of Roseovarius sp. within the tripartite community because it was produced exclusively by these bacteria. By combining confocal laser scanning microscopy (cLSM) and AP-SMALDI-HRMS, we proved that Roseovarius sp. MS2 settled mainly in the rhizoidal zone (holdfast) of U. mutabilis. Our findings provide the fundament to decipher bacterial symbioses with multicellular hosts in aquatic ecosystems in an ecologically relevant context. As a versatile tool for microbiome research, the combined AP-SMALDI and cLSM imaging analysis with a resolution to level of a single bacterial cell can be easily applied to other microbial consortia and their hosts. The novelty of this contribution is the use of an in situ setup designed to avoid all types of external contamination and interferences while resolving spatial distributions of metabolites and identifying specific symbiotic bacteria

Mate discrimination among subspecies through a conserved olfactory pathway.

Communication mechanisms underlying the sexual isolation of species are poorly understood. Using four subspecies of Drosophila mojavensis as a model, we identify two behaviorally active, male-specific pheromones. One functions as a conserved male antiaphrodisiac in all subspecies and acts via gustation. The second induces female receptivity via olfaction exclusively in the two subspecies that produce it. Genetic analysis of the cognate receptor for the olfactory pheromone indicates an important role for this sensory pathway in promoting sexual isolation of subspecies, in combination with auditory signals. Unexpectedly, the peripheral sensory pathway detecting this pheromone is conserved molecularly, physiologically, and anatomically across subspecies. These observations imply that subspecies-specific behaviors arise from differential interpretation of the same peripheral cue, reminiscent of sexually conserved detection but dimorphic interpretation of male pheromones in Drosophila melanogaster. Our results reveal that, during incipient speciation, pheromone production, detection, and interpretation do not necessarily evolve in a coordinated manner

Evaluation of heart rate variability in patients with coronary artery ectasia and coronary artery disease

Objective: The present study compared heart rate variability (HRV) parameters in patients with coronary artery ectasia (CAE) and coronary artery disease (CAD). Methods: The study population consisted of 60 consecutive patients with CAE (14 women; mean age 51.63±7.44 years), 60 consecutive patients with CA (15 women; mean age 53.67±9.31 years), and 59 healthy individuals (13 women; mean age 52.85±8.19 years). Electrocardiograms, 24-hour Holter analyses, and routine biochemical tests were performed, and clinical characteristics were evaluated. Coronary angiography images were analyzed. Time-domain HRV parameters, including the standard deviation (SD) of normal-to-normal intervals (SDNN) and the root mean square of difference in successive normal-tonormal intervals (RMSSD) were evaluated, as were frequencydomain HRV parameters including low-frequency (LF), very lowfrequency (VLF), high-frequency (HF), the proportion derived by dividing low- and high-frequency (LF/HF), and total power (TP). Results: SDNN was lower in both the CAE and CAD groups, compared to the healthy group (140.85±44.21, 96.51±31.28, and 181.05±48.67, respectively). A significant difference in RMSSD values among the groups was determined (p=0.004). Significantly decreased VLF and HF values were found in the CAE group, compared with the healthy group (VLF p<0.001; HF, p=0.007). TP, VLF, and HF values were significantly lower (p<0.001, p<0.001, and p<0.001, respectively), but LF and LF/ HF values were significantly higher (p<0.001 for both) in the CAD group than in the healthy group. TP values were significantly higher (p<0.001), and LF and LF/HF values were lower in the CAE group, compared with the CAD group (p<0.001 for both). Conclusion: A decrease in vagal modulation or an increase in sympathetic activity of cardiac function, assessed by HRV analysis, is worse in patients with CAD than in patients with CAE. © 2016 Turkish Society of Cardiology

Abnormal spatial diffusion of Ca2+ in F508del-CFTR airway epithelial cells

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In airway epithelial cells, calcium mobilization can be elicited by selective autocrine and/or paracrine activation of apical or basolateral membrane heterotrimeric G protein-coupled receptors linked to phospholipase C (PLC) stimulation, which generates inositol 1,4,5-trisphosphate (IP₃) and 1,2-diacylglycerol (DAG) and induces Ca²⁺release from endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stores.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In the present study, we monitored the cytosolic Ca²⁺transients using the UV light photolysis technique to uncage caged Ca²⁺or caged IP₃into the cytosol of loaded airway epithelial cells of cystic fibrosis (CF) and non-CF origin. We compared in these cells the types of Ca²⁺receptors present in the ER, and measured their Ca²⁺dependent activity before and after correction of F508del-CFTR abnormal trafficking either by low temperature or by the pharmacological corrector miglustat (N-butyldeoxynojirimycin).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We showed reduction of the inositol 1,4,5-trisphosphate receptors (IP₃R) dependent-Ca²⁺response following both correcting treatments compared to uncorrected cells in such a way that Ca²⁺responses (CF+treatment <it>vs </it>wild-type cells) were normalized. This normalization of the Ca²⁺rate does not affect the activity of Ca²⁺-dependent chloride channel in miglustat-treated CF cells. Using two inhibitors of IP₃R1, we observed a decrease of the implication of IP₃R1 in the Ca²⁺response in CF corrected cells. We observed a similar Ca²⁺mobilization between CF-KM4 cells and CFTR-cDNA transfected CF cells (CF-KM4-reverted). When we restored the F508del-CFTR trafficking in CFTR-reverted cells, the specific IP₃R activity was also reduced to a similar level as in non CF cells. At the structural level, the ER morphology of CF cells was highly condensed around the nucleus while in non CF cells or corrected CF cells the ER was extended at the totality of cell.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These results suggest reversal of the IP₃R dysfunction in F508del-CFTR epithelial cells by correction of the abnormal trafficking of F508del-CFTR in cystic fibrosis cells. Moreover, using CFTR cDNA-transfected CF cells, we demonstrated that abnormal increase of IP₃R Ca²⁺release in CF human epithelial cells could be the consequence of F508del-CFTR retention in ER compartment.</p