The future of food security, environments and livelihoods in Western Africa: Four socio-economic scenarios

This working paper examines the development of regional socioeconomic scenarios for West Africa’s development, agriculture, food security and climate impacts. We present four globally consistent regional scenarios framed and outlined by regional experts who crafted narratives and determined key drivers of change. Stakeholders identified the type of actors driving change and the timeline of strategic planning as the most uncertain and most relevant factors of change affecting food security, livelihoods and environments in the region. The scenarios were linked to the IPCC community’s global Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and quantified using two agricultural economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with drivers outlined by the SSPs and guided by semi-quantitative information from the stakeholders. The quantification of the scenarios has provided additional insights into the possible development of Western Africa in the context of a global economy as well as how the agricultural sector may be affected by climate change. The scenarios process highlights the need to combine socio-economic and climate scenarios, to base these scenarios in regional expertise, and ways to make scenarios useful for policy design. The objective of this working paper is to provide scenarios for future regional development for West Africa on the future of food security, environment, and rural livelihoods as well as offer details of the multi-stakeholder scenarios development process. Using both qualitative and quantitative scenarios we provide insights into the possible development of West Africa as well as a scalable framework for regional decision makers and the scientific community to use scenarios to build and test policies to make them more robust in the face of future uncertainty. In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. Increased crop and livestock productivity may lead to an expansion of agricultural areas within the region but productivity improvements may reduce the pressure on land elsewhere. In the context of a global economy, West Africa remains a large consumer and producer of a selection of commodities. However, the growth in population in combination with rising incomes may lead to increases in the region’s imports. For West Africa, climate change is likely to have negative effects on both crop yields and grassland productivity, and lack of investment in agriculture may exacerbate them. The aim of the regional scenarios is provide challenging contexts for policy makers to test and develop a range of national and regional policies. To date, the scenarios have been used in a number of policy design processes which include collaborations with ECOWAS priority setting, the National Plan for the Rural Sector for Burkina Faso (PNSR), and district and national level policy processes in Ghana

Potential of pigeon pea as a trap crop for control of fruit worm infestation and damage to okra

The potential of perimeter trap cropping, using short and extra-short duration pigeon pea (SD PP and ESD PP), sorghum and cotton, was evaluated in Niger as an agroecological alternative to pesticide application on okra for the management of the tomato fruit worm (TFW) Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner). In 2008, infestation by TFW and damage by fruit worms of unsprayed okra with SD PP borders was intermediate between cypermethrin-sprayed and unsprayed pure okra crops. In 2009, the cypermethrin-sprayed okra was significantly less damaged by fruit worms than in the unsprayed pure okra, as well as in the unsprayed okra crops with SD PP, sorghum and cotton borders. In 2010, the pure okra crop sprayed with cypermethrin was significantly less infested by TFW than the unsprayed pure okra crop and the unsprayed okra crop with SD PP borders. The unsprayed okra crop with ESD PP borders was intermediate between cypermethrin-sprayed and unsprayed pure okra crops. The slightly lower TFW infestation of the unsprayed okra crop with ESD PP borders was a result of increased top-down regulation by predator spiders, whose colonization was significantly higher on the unsprayed okra crop with ESD PP borders than on both (sprayed and unsprayed) pure okra crops. (Résumé d'auteur