Forecasting net energy consumption of South Africa using artificial neural network

Abstract: This work proposes the use of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) as a new approach to determine the future level of energy consumption in South Africa. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used in order to train Artificial Neural Networks. The population size, the percentage losses, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the percentage growth forecasts, the expected Final Consumption Expenditure of Households (FCEH) as well as the relevant manufacturing and mining indexes are the “drivers” values used for the forecasts. Three growth scenarios have been considered for the forecasting namely low, moderate and high (less energy intensive) scenarios. These inputs values for the period of 2014 to 2050, from the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), were used to test data and validate the use of this new approach for the prediction of electricity demand. An estimate of the annual electricity demand forecasts per scenario was calculated. Besides the speed of the computation, the proposed ANN approach provides a relatively good prediction of the energy demand within acceptable errors. ANN was found to be flexible enough, as a modelling tool, showing a high degree of accuracy for the prediction of electricity demand. It is expected that this study will contribute meaningfully to the development of highly applicable productive planning for energy policies

What "best practice" could be in Palliative Care: an analysis of statements on practice and ethics expressed by the main Health Organizations

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In palliative care it would be necessary to refer to a model. Nevertheless it seems that there are no official statements which state and describe that model. We carried out an analysis of the statements on practice and ethics of palliative care expressed by the main health organizations to show which dimensions of end-of-life care are taken into consideration.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The official documents by the most representative health organisations committed to the definition of policies and guidelines for palliative and end-of-life care had been considered. The documents were analysed through a framework of the components of end-of-life care derived from literature, which was composed of 4 main "areas" and of 12 "sub-areas".</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Overall, 34 organizations were identified, 7 international organisations, and 27 organisations operating on the national level in four different countries (Australia, Canada, UK and United States). Up to 56 documents were selected and analysed. Most of them (38) are position statements. Relevant quotations from the documents were presented by "areas" and "sub-areas". In general, the "sub-areas" of symptoms control as well as those referring to relational and social issues are more widely covered by the documents than the "sub-areas" related to "preparation" and to "existential condition". Indeed, the consistency of end-of-life choices with the patient's wishes, as well as completion and meaningfulness at the end of life is given only a minor relevance.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>An integrated model of the best palliative care practice is generally lacking in the documents. It might be argued that the lack of a fixed and coherent model is due to the relevance of unavoidable context issues in palliative care, such as specific cultural settings, patient-centred variables, and family specificity. The implication is that palliative care staff have continuously to adapt their model of caring to the specific needs and values of each patient, more than applying a fixed, although maybe comprehensive, care model.</p

Global Asthma Network survey suggests more national asthma strategies could reduce burden of asthma

Background Several countries or regions within countries have an effective national asthma strategy resulting in a reduction of the large burden of asthma to individuals and society. There has been no systematic appraisal of the extent of national asthma strategies in the world. Methods The Global Asthma Network (GAN) undertook an email survey of 276 Principal Investigators of GAN centres in 120 countries, in 2013–2014. One of the questions was: “Has a national asthma strategy been developed in your country for the next five years? For children? For adults?”. Results Investigators in 112 (93.3%) countries answered this question. Of these, 26 (23.2%) reported having a national asthma strategy for children and 24 (21.4%) for adults; 22 (19.6%) countries had a strategy for both children and adults; 28 (25%) had a strategy for at least one age group. In countries with a high prevalence of current wheeze, strategies were significantly more common than in low prevalence countries (11/13 (85%) and 7/31 (22.6%) respectively, p &lt; 0.001). Interpretation In 25% countries a national asthma strategy was reported. A large reduction in the global burden of asthma could be potentially achieved if more countries had an effective asthma strategy. © 2017 SEICA

Essential Medicines at the National Level: The Global Asthma Network's Essential Asthma Medicines Survey 2014

10.3390/ijerph16040605INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH16

Global Asthma Network survey suggests more national asthma strategies could reduce burden of asthma

Background Several countries or regions within countries have an effective national asthma strategy resulting in a reduction of the large burden of asthma to individuals and society. There has been no systematic appraisal of the extent of national asthma strategies in the world. Methods The Global Asthma Network (GAN) undertook an email survey of 276 Principal Investigators of GAN centres in 120 countries, in 2013–2014. One of the questions was: “Has a national asthma strategy been developed in your country for the next five years? For children? For adults?”. Results Investigators in 112 (93.3%) countries answered this question. Of these, 26 (23.2%) reported having a national asthma strategy for children and 24 (21.4%) for adults; 22 (19.6%) countries had a strategy for both children and adults; 28 (25%) had a strategy for at least one age group. In countries with a high prevalence of current wheeze, strategies were significantly more common than in low prevalence countries (11/13 (85%) and 7/31 (22.6%) respectively, p < 0.001). Interpretation In 25% countries a national asthma strategy was reported. A large reduction in the global burden of asthma could be potentially achieved if more countries had an effective asthma strategy. © 2017 SEICA