Disease surveillance using a hidden Markov model

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Routine surveillance of disease notification data can enable the early detection of localised disease outbreaks. Although hidden Markov models (HMMs) have been recognised as an appropriate method to model disease surveillance data, they have been rarely applied in public health practice. We aimed to develop and evaluate a simple flexible HMM for disease surveillance which is suitable for use with sparse small area count data and requires little baseline data.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A Bayesian HMM was designed to monitor routinely collected notifiable disease data that are aggregated by residential postcode. Semi-synthetic data were used to evaluate the algorithm and compare outbreak detection performance with the established Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) algorithms and a negative binomial cusum.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Algorithm performance varied according to the desired false alarm rate for surveillance. At false alarm rates around 0.05, the cusum-based algorithms provided the best overall outbreak detection performance, having similar sensitivity to the HMMs and a shorter average time to detection. At false alarm rates around 0.01, the HMM algorithms provided the best overall outbreak detection performance, having higher sensitivity than the cusum-based Methods and a generally shorter time to detection for larger outbreaks. Overall, the 14-day HMM had a significantly greater area under the receiver operator characteristic curve than the EARS C3 and 7-day negative binomial cusum algorithms.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our findings suggest that the HMM provides an effective method for the surveillance of sparse small area notifiable disease data at low false alarm rates. Further investigations are required to evaluation algorithm performance across other diseases and surveillance contexts.</p

Cell Wall Antibiotics Provoke Accumulation of Anchored mCherry in the Cross Wall of Staphylococcus aureus

A fluorescence microscopy method to directly follow the localization of defined proteins in Staphylococcus was hampered by the unstable fluorescence of fluorescent proteins. Here, we constructed plasmid (pCX) encoded red fluorescence (RF) mCherry (mCh) hybrids, namely mCh-cyto (no signal peptide and no sorting sequence), mCh-sec (with signal peptide), and mCh-cw (with signal peptide and cell wall sorting sequence). The S. aureus clones targeted mCh-fusion proteins into the cytosol, the supernatant and the cell envelope respectively; in all cases mCherry exhibited bright fluorescence. In staphylococci two types of signal peptides (SP) can be distinguished: the +YSIRK motif SPlip and the −YSIRK motif SPsasF. mCh-hybrids supplied with the +YSIRK motif SPlip were always expressed higher than those with −YSIRK motif SPsasF. To study the location of the anchoring process and also the influence of SP type, mCh-cw was supplied on the one hand with +YSIRK motif (mCh-cw1) and the other hand with -YSIRK motif (mCh-cw2). MCh-cw1 preferentially localized at the cross wall, while mCh-cw2 preferentially localized at the peripheral wall. Interestingly, when treated with sub-lethal concentrations of penicillin or moenomycin, both mCh-cw1 and mCh-cw2 were concentrated at the cross wall. The shift from the peripheral wall to the cross wall required Sortase A (SrtA), as in the srtA mutant this effect was blunted. The effect is most likely due to antibiotic mediated increase of free anchoring sites (Lipid II) at the cross wall, the substrate of SrtA, leading to a preferential incorporation of anchored proteins at the cross wall

Role of lipid apheresis in changing times

During the last decades, LDL-apheresis was established as an extracorporeal treatment option for patients with severe heterozygous or homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) that is resistant to conventional treatment strategies such as diet, drugs, and changes in lifestyle. Nearly half a century ago, the first LDL-apheresis treatment was performed by plasma exchange in a child with homozygous FH

Genomic Analysis Reveals a Potential Role for Cell Cycle Perturbation in HCV-Mediated Apoptosis of Cultured Hepatocytes

The mechanisms of liver injury associated with chronic HCV infection, as well as the individual roles of both viral and host factors, are not clearly defined. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that direct cytopathic effects, in addition to immune-mediated processes, play an important role in liver injury. Gene expression profiling during multiple time-points of acute HCV infection of cultured Huh-7.5 cells was performed to gain insight into the cellular mechanism of HCV-associated cytopathic effect. Maximal induction of cell-death–related genes and appearance of activated caspase-3 in HCV-infected cells coincided with peak viral replication, suggesting a link between viral load and apoptosis. Gene ontology analysis revealed that many of the cell-death genes function to induce apoptosis in response to cell cycle arrest. Labeling of dividing cells in culture followed by flow cytometry also demonstrated the presence of significantly fewer cells in S-phase in HCV-infected relative to mock cultures, suggesting HCV infection is associated with delayed cell cycle progression. Regulation of numerous genes involved in anti-oxidative stress response and TGF-β1 signaling suggest these as possible causes of delayed cell cycle progression. Significantly, a subset of cell-death genes regulated during in vitro HCV infection was similarly regulated specifically in liver tissue from a cohort of HCV-infected liver transplant patients with rapidly progressive fibrosis. Collectively, these data suggest that HCV mediates direct cytopathic effects through deregulation of the cell cycle and that this process may contribute to liver disease progression. This in vitro system could be utilized to further define the cellular mechanism of this perturbation

Activation of an NLRP3 Inflammasome Restricts Mycobacterium kansasii Infection

Mycobacterium kansasii has emerged as an important nontuberculous mycobacterium pathogen, whose incidence and prevalence have been increasing in the last decade. M. kansasii can cause pulmonary tuberculosis clinically and radiographically indistinguishable from that caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. Unlike the widely-studied M. tuberculosis, little is known about the innate immune response against M. kansasii infection. Although inflammasome activation plays an important role in host defense against bacterial infection, its role against atypical mycobacteria remains poorly understood. In this report, the role of inflammasome activity in THP-1 macrophages against M. kansasii infection was studied. Results indicated that viable, but not heat-killed, M. kansasii induced caspase-1-dependent IL-1β secretion in macrophages. The underlying mechanism was found to be through activation of an inflammasome containing the NLR (Nod-like receptor) family member NLRP3 and the adaptor protein ASC (apoptosis-associated speck-like protein containing a CARD). Further, potassium efflux, lysosomal acidification, ROS production and cathepsin B release played a role in M. kansasii-induced inflammasome activation. Finally, the secreted IL-1β derived from caspase-1 activation was shown to restrict intracellular M. kansasii. These findings demonstrate a biological role for the NLRP3 inflammasome in host defense against M. kansasii

Pre-Clinical Evaluation of a Novel Nanoemulsion-Based Hepatitis B Mucosal Vaccine

Hepatitis B virus infection remains an important global health concern despite the availability of safe and effective prophylactic vaccines. Limitations to these vaccines include requirement for refrigeration and three immunizations thereby restricting use in the developing world. A new nasal hepatitis B vaccine composed of recombinant hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) in a novel nanoemulsion (NE) adjuvant (HBsAg-NE) could be effective with fewer administrations.Physical characterization indicated that HBsAg-NE consists of uniform lipid droplets (349+/-17 nm) associated with HBsAg through electrostatic and hydrophobic interactions. Immunogenicity of HBsAg-NE vaccine was evaluated in mice, rats and guinea pigs. Animals immunized intranasally developed robust and sustained systemic IgG, mucosal IgA and strong antigen-specific cellular immune responses. Serum IgG reached > or = 10(6) titers and was comparable to intramuscular vaccination with alum-adjuvanted vaccine (HBsAg-Alu). Normalization showed that HBsAg-NE vaccination correlates with a protective immunity equivalent or greater than 1000 IU/ml. Th1 polarized immune response was indicated by IFN-gamma and TNF-alpha cytokine production and elevated levels of IgG(2) subclass of HBsAg-specific antibodies. The vaccine retains full immunogenicity for a year at 4 degrees C, 6 months at 25 degrees C and 6 weeks at 40 degrees C. Comprehensive pre-clinical toxicology evaluation demonstrated that HBsAg-NE vaccine is safe and well tolerated in multiple animal models.Our results suggest that needle-free nasal immunization with HBsAg-NE could be a safe and effective hepatitis B vaccine, or provide an alternative booster administration for the parenteral hepatitis B vaccines. This vaccine induces a Th1 associated cellular immunity and also may provide therapeutic benefit to patients with chronic hepatitis B infection who lack cellular immune responses to adequately control viral replication. Long-term stability of this vaccine formulation at elevated temperatures suggests a direct advantage in the field, since potential excursions from cold chain maintenance could be tolerated without a loss in therapeutic efficacy

Analysis of the human monocyte-derived macrophage transcriptome and response to lipopolysaccharide provides new insights into genetic aetiology of inflammatory bowel disease

The FANTOM5 consortium utilised cap analysis of gene expression (CAGE) to provide an unprecedented insight into transcriptional regulation in human cells and tissues. In the current study, we have used CAGE-based transcriptional profiling on an extended dense time course of the response of human monocyte-derived macrophages grown in macrophage colony-stimulating factor (CSF1) to bacterial lipopolysaccharide (LPS). We propose that this system provides a model for the differentiation and adaptation of monocytes entering the intestinal lamina propria. The response to LPS is shown to be a cascade of successive waves of transient gene expression extending over at least 48 hours, with hundreds of positive and negative regulatory loops. Promoter analysis using motif activity response analysis (MARA) identified some of the transcription factors likely to be responsible for the temporal profile of transcriptional activation. Each LPS-inducible locus was associated with multiple inducible enhancers, and in each case, transient eRNA transcription at multiple sites detected by CAGE preceded the appearance of promoter-associated transcripts. LPS-inducible long non-coding RNAs were commonly associated with clusters of inducible enhancers. We used these data to re-examine the hundreds of loci associated with susceptibility to inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in genome-wide association studies. Loci associated with IBD were strongly and specifically (relative to rheumatoid arthritis and unrelated traits) enriched for promoters that were regulated in monocyte differentiation or activation. Amongst previously-identified IBD susceptibility loci, the vast majority contained at least one promoter that was regulated in CSF1-dependent monocyte-macrophage transitions and/or in response to LPS. On this basis, we concluded that IBD loci are strongly-enriched for monocyte-specific genes, and identified at least 134 additional candidate genes associated with IBD susceptibility from reanalysis of published GWA studies. We propose that dysregulation of monocyte adaptation to the environment of the gastrointestinal mucosa is the key process leading to inflammatory bowel disease