Systemic Risk and the Ripple Effect in the Supply Chain

Supply chains are highly complex systems, and disruptions may ripple through these systems in unexpected ways, but they may also start in unexpected ways. We investigate the causes of ripple effect through the lens of systemic risk. We derive supply chain systemic risk from the finance discipline where sources of risk are found in systemic risk-taking, contagion, and amplification mechanisms. In a supply chain context, we identify three dimensions that influence systemic risk, the nature of a disruption, the structure, and dependency of the supply chain, and the decision-making. Within these three dimensions, there are several factors including correlation of risk, compounding effects, cyclical linkages, counterparty risk, herding behavior, and misaligned incentives. These factors are often invisible to decision makers, and they may operate in tandem to exacerbate ripple effect. We highlight these systemic risks, and we encourage further research to understand their nature and to mitigate their effect

HIV Risk and Associations of HIV Infection among men who have sex with men in Peri-Urban Cape Town, South Africa

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The HIV epidemic in Sub Saharan Africa has been traditionally assumed to be driven by high risk heterosexual and vertical transmission. However, there is an increasing body of data highlighting the disproportionate burden of HIV infection among MSM in the generalized HIV epidemics across of Southern Africa. In South Africa specifically, there has been an increase in attention focused on the risk status and preventive needs of MSM both in urban centers and peri-urban townships. The study presented here represents the first evaluation of HIV prevalence and associations of HIV infection among MSM in the peri-urban townships of Cape Town.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study consisted of an anonymous probe of 200 men, reporting ever having had sex with another man, recruited through venue-base sampling from January to February, 2009.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Overall, HIV prevalence was 25.5% (n = 51/200). Of these prevalent HIV infections, only 6% of HIV-1 infected MSM were aware of their HIV status (3/50). 0% of men reported always having safe sex as defined by always wearing condoms during sex and using water-based lubricants. Independent associations with HIV infection included inconsistent condom use with male partners (aOR 2.3, 95% CI 1.0-5.4), having been blackmailed (aOR 4.4, 95% CI 1.6-20.2), age over 26 years (aOR 4.2, 95% CI 1.6-10.6), being unemployed (aOR 3.7, 95% CI 1.5-9.3), and rural origin (aOR 6.0, 95% CI 2.2-16.7). Bisexual activity was reported by 17.1% (34/199), and a total of 8% (16/200) reported having a regular female partner. Human rights violations were common with 10.5% (n = 21/200) reporting having been blackmailed and 21.0% (n = 42/200) reporting being afraid to seek health care.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The conclusions from this study include that a there is a high risk and underserved population of MSM in the townships surrounding Cape Town. The high HIV prevalence and high risk sexual practices suggest that prevalence will continue to increase among these men in the context of an otherwise slowing epidemic. These data further highlight the need to better characterize risk factors for HIV prevention and appropriate targeted combination packages of HIV interventions including biomedical, behavioural, and structural approaches to mitigate HIV risk among these men.</p

The Edinburgh Social Cognition Test (ESCoT):Examining the effects of age on a new measure of theory of mind and social norm understanding

<div><p>Current measures of social cognition have shown inconsistent findings regarding the effects of healthy aging. Moreover, no tests are currently available that allow clinicians and researchers to examine cognitive and affective theory of mind (ToM) and understanding of social norms within the same test. To address these limitations, we present the Edinburgh Social Cognition Test (ESCoT) which assesses cognitive and affective ToM and inter- and intrapersonal understanding of social norms. We examined the effects of age, measures of intelligence and the Broader Autism Phenotype (BAP) on the ESCoT and established tests of social cognition. Additionally, we investigated the convergent validity of the ESCoT based on traditional social cognition measures. The ESCoT was administered alongside Reading the Mind in Films (RMF), Reading the Mind in Eyes (RME), Judgement of Preference and Social Norm Questionnaire to 91 participants (30 aged 18–35 years, 30 aged 45–60 years and 31 aged 65–85 years). Poorer performance on the cognitive and affective ToM ESCoT subtests were predicted by increasing age. The affective ToM ESCoT subtest and RMF were predicted by gender, where being female predicted better performance. Unlike the ESCoT, better performance on the RMF was predicted by higher verbal comprehension and perceptual reasoning abilities, while better performance on the RME was predicted by higher verbal comprehension scores. Lower scores on inter-and intrapersonal understanding of social norms were both predicted by the presence of more autism-like traits while poorer interpersonal understanding of social norms performance was predicted by increasing age. These findings show that the ESCoT is a useful measure of social cognition and, unlike established tests of social cognition, performance is not predicted by measures of verbal comprehension and perceptual reasoning. This is particularly valuable to obtain an accurate assessment of the influence of age on our social cognitive abilities.</p></div

In Situ to in Silico and Back: Elucidating the Physiology and Ecology of Geobacter spp. Using Genome-Scale Modelling

There is a wide diversity of unexplored metabolism encoded in the genomes of microorganisms that have an important environmental role. Genome-scale metabolic modelling enables the individual reactions that are encoded in annotated genomes to be organized into a coherent whole, which can then be used to predict metabolic fluxes that will optimize cell function under a range of conditions. In this Review, we summarize a series of studies in which genome-scale metabolic modelling of Geobacter spp. has resulted in an in-depth understanding of their central metabolism and ecology. A similar iterative modelling and experimental approach could accelerate elucidation of the physiology and ecology of other microorganisms inhabiting a diversity of environments, and could guide optimization of the practical applications of these species