Causality and the Interpretation of Epidemiologic Evidence

There is an ongoing debate regarding how and when an agent’s or determinant’s impact can be interpreted as causation with respect to some target disease. The so-called criteria of causation, originating from the seminal work of Sir Austin Bradford Hill and Mervyn Susser, are often schematically applied disregarding the fact that they were meant neither as criteria nor as a checklist for attributing to a hazard the potential of disease causation. Furthermore, there is a tendency to misinterpret the lack of evidence for causation as evidence for lack of a causal relation. There are no criteria in the strict sense for the assessment of evidence concerning an agent’s or determinant’s propensity to cause a disease, nor are there criteria to dismiss the notion of causation. Rather, there is a discursive process of conjecture and refutation. In this commentary, I propose a dialogue approach for the assessment of an agent or determinant. Starting from epidemiologic evidence, four issues need to be addressed: temporal relation, association, environmental equivalence, and population equivalence. If there are no valid counterarguments, a factor is attributed the potential of disease causation. More often than not, there will be insufficient evidence from epidemiologic studies. In these cases, other evidence can be used instead that increases or decreases confidence in a factor being causally related to a disease. Even though every verdict of causation is provisional, action must not be postponed until better evidence is available if our present knowledge appears to demand immediate measures for health protection

Non-equilibrium Dynamics of O(N) Nonlinear Sigma models: a Large-N approach

We study the time evolution of the mass gap of the O(N) non-linear sigma model in 2+1 dimensions due to a time-dependent coupling in the large-$N$ limit. Using the Schwinger-Keldysh approach, we derive a set of equations at large $N$ which determine the time dependent gap in terms of the coupling. These equations lead to a criterion for the breakdown of adiabaticity for slow variation of the coupling leading to a Kibble-Zurek scaling law. We describe a self-consistent numerical procedure to solve these large-$N$ equations and provide explicit numerical solutions for a coupling which starts deep in the gapped phase at early times and approaches the zero temperature equilibrium critical point $g_c$ in a linear fashion. We demonstrate that for such a protocol there is a value of the coupling $g= g_c^{\rm dyn}> g_c$ where the gap function vanishes, possibly indicating a dynamical instability. We study the dependence of $g_c^{\rm dyn}$ on both the rate of change of the coupling and the initial temperature. We also verify, by studying the evolution of the mass gap subsequent to a sudden change in $g$, that the model does not display thermalization within a finite time interval $t_0$ and discuss the implications of this observation for its conjectured gravitational dual as a higher spin theory in $AdS_4$.Comment: 22 pages, 9 figures. Typos corrected, references rearranged and added.v3 : sections rearranged, abstract modified, comment about Kibble-Zurek scaling correcte

Photometric Properties of the Near-contact Binary GW Geminorum

New multiband CCD photometry is presented for the eclipsing binary GW Gem; the $RI$ light curves are the first ever compiled. Four new minimum timings have been determined. Our analysis of eclipse timings observed during the past 79 years indicates a continuous period increase at a fractional rate of +(1.2$\pm$0.1)$\times10^{-10}$, in excellent agreement with the value $+1.1\times10^{-10}$ calculated from the Wilson-Devinney binary code. The new light curves display an inverse O'Connell effect increasing toward longer wavelengths. Hot and cool spot models are developed to describe these variations but we prefer a cool spot on the secondary star. Our light-curve synthesis reveals that GW Gem is in a semi-detached, but near-contact, configuration. It appears to consist of a near-main-sequence primary star with a spectral type of about A7 and an evolved early K-type secondary star that completely fills its inner Roche lobe. Mass transfer from the secondary to the primary component is responsible for the observed secular period change.Comment: 20 pages, including 5 figures and 6 tables, accepted for publication in PAS

From counting to construction of BPS states in N=4 SYM

We describe a universal element in the group algebra of symmetric groups, whose characters provides the counting of quarter and eighth BPS states at weak coupling in N=4 SYM, refined according to representations of the global symmetry group. A related projector acting on the Hilbert space of the free theory is used to construct the matrix of two-point functions of the states annihilated by the one-loop dilatation operator, at finite N or in the large N limit. The matrix is given simply in terms of Clebsch-Gordan coefficients of symmetric groups and dimensions of U(N) representations. It is expected, by non-renormalization theorems, to contain observables at strong coupling. Using the stringy exclusion principle, we interpret a class of its eigenvalues and eigenvectors in terms of giant gravitons. We also give a formula for the action of the one-loop dilatation operator on the orthogonal basis of the free theory, which is manifestly covariant under the global symmetry.Comment: 41 pages + Appendices, 4 figures; v2 - refs and acknowledgments adde

Essential role of beta-adrenergic receptor kinase 1 in cardiac development and function.

The beta-adrenergic receptor kinase 1 (beta ARK1) is a member of the G protein-coupled receptor kinase (GRK) family that mediates the agonist-dependent phosphorylation and desensitization of G protein-coupled receptors. We have cloned and disrupted the beta ARK1 gene in mice by homologous recombination. No homozygote beta ARK1-/- embryos survive beyond gestational day 15.5. Prior to gestational day 15.5, beta ARK1-/- embryos display pronounced hypoplasia of the ventricular myocardium essentially identical to the "thin myocardium syndrome" observed upon gene inactivation of several transcription factors (RXR alpha, N-myc, TEF-1, WT-1). Lethality in beta ARK1-/- embryos is likely due to heart failure as they exhibit a > 70% decrease in cardiac ejection fraction determined by direct in utero intravital microscopy. These results along with the virtual absence of endogenous GRK activity in beta ARK1-/- embryos demonstrate that beta ARK1 appears to be the predominant GRK in early embryogenesis and that it plays a fundamental role in cardiac development

Infrared behavior of interacting bosons at zero temperature

We review the infrared behavior of interacting bosons at zero temperature. After a brief discussion of the Bogoliubov approximation and the breakdown of perturbation theory due to infrared divergences, we present two approaches that are free of infrared divergences -- Popov's hydrodynamic theory and the non-perturbative renormalization group -- and allow us to obtain the exact infrared behavior of the correlation functions. We also point out the connection between the infrared behavior in the superfluid phase and the critical behavior at the superfluid--Mott-insulator transition in the Bose-Hubbard model.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures. Proceedings of the 19th International Laser Physics Workshop, LPHYS'10 (Foz do Iguacu, Brazil, July 5-9, 2010

Physical and mental health comorbidity is common in people with multiple sclerosis: nationally representative cross-sectional population database analysis

<b>Background</b> Comorbidity in Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is associated with worse health and higher mortality. This study aims to describe clinician recorded comorbidities in people with MS. <p></p> <b>Methods</b> 39 comorbidities in 3826 people with MS aged ≥25 years were compared against 1,268,859 controls. Results were analysed by age, gender, and socioeconomic status, with unadjusted and adjusted Odds Ratios (ORs) calculated using logistic regression. <p></p> <b>Results</b> People with MS were more likely to have one (OR 2.44; 95% CI 2.26-2.64), two (OR 1.49; 95% CI 1.38-1.62), three (OR 1.86; 95% CI 1.69-2.04), four or more (OR 1.61; 95% CI 1.47-1.77) non-MS chronic conditions than controls, and greater mental health comorbidity (OR 2.94; 95% CI 2.75-3.14), which increased as the number of physical comorbidities rose. Cardiovascular conditions, including atrial fibrillation (OR 0.49; 95% CI 0.36-0.67), chronic kidney disease (OR 0.51; 95% CI 0.40-0.65), heart failure (OR 0.62; 95% CI 0.45-0.85), coronary heart disease (OR 0.64; 95% CI 0.52-0.71), and hypertension (OR 0.65; 95% CI 0.59-0.72) were significantly less common in people with MS. <p></p> <b>Conclusion</b> People with MS have excess multiple chronic conditions, with associated increased mental health comorbidity. The low recorded cardiovascular comorbidity warrants further investigation

Two Earth-sized planets orbiting Kepler-20

Since the discovery of the first extrasolar giant planets around Sun-like stars, evolving observational capabilities have brought us closer to the detection of true Earth analogues. The size of an exoplanet can be determined when it periodically passes in front of (transits) its parent star, causing a decrease in starlight proportional to its radius. The smallest exoplanet hitherto discovered has a radius 1.42 times that of the Earth's radius (R Earth), and hence has 2.9 times its volume. Here we report the discovery of two planets, one Earth-sized (1.03R Earth) and the other smaller than the Earth (0.87R Earth), orbiting the star Kepler-20, which is already known to host three other, larger, transiting planets. The gravitational pull of the new planets on the parent star is too small to measure with current instrumentation. We apply a statistical method to show that the likelihood of the planetary interpretation of the transit signals is more than three orders of magnitude larger than that of the alternative hypothesis that the signals result from an eclipsing binary star. Theoretical considerations imply that these planets are rocky, with a composition of iron and silicate. The outer planet could have developed a thick water vapour atmosphere.Comment: Letter to Nature; Received 8 November; accepted 13 December 2011; Published online 20 December 201