55 research outputs found

    Oil Spill Risk Analysis For The NEOM Shoreline

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    A risk analysis is conducted considering several release sources located around the NEOM shoreline. The sources are selected close to the coast and in neighboring regions of high marine traffic. The evolution of oil spills released by these sources is simulated using the MOHID model, driven by validated, high-resolution met-ocean fields of the Red Sea. For each source, simulations are conducted over a 4-week period, starting from first, tenth and twentieth days of each month, covering five consecutive years. A total of 48 simulations are thus conducted for each source location, adequately reflecting the variability of met-ocean conditions in the region. The risk associated with each source is described in terms of amount of oil beached, and by the elapsed time required for the spilled oil to reach the NEOM coast, extending from the Gulf of Aqaba in the North to Duba in the South. A finer analysis is performed by segmenting the NEOM shoreline, based on important coastal development and installation sites. For each subregion, source and release event considered, a histogram of the amount of volume beached is generated, also classifying individual events in terms of the corresponding arrival times. In addition, for each subregion considered, an inverse analysis is conducted to identify regions of dependence of the cumulative risk, estimated using the collection of all sources and events considered. The transport of oil around the NEOM shorelines is promoted by chaotic circulations and northwest winds in summer, and a dominant cyclonic eddy in winter. Hence, spills originating from release sources located close to the NEOM shorelines are characterized by large monthly variations in arrival times, ranging from less than a week to more than two weeks. Large variations in the volume fraction of beached oil, ranging from less then 50\% to more than 80% are reported.Comment: 15 pages, 8 figure

    Multilocus Microsatellite Typing (MLMT) of Strains from Turkey and Cyprus Reveals a Novel Monophyletic L. donovani Sensu Lato Group

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    In eastern Mediterranean, leishmaniasis represents a major public health problem with considerable impact on morbidity and potential to spread. Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) caused by L. major or L. tropica accounts for most cases in this region although visceral leishmaniasis (VL) caused by L. infantum is also common. New foci of human CL caused by L. donovani complex strains were recently described in Cyprus and Turkey. Herein we analyzed Turkish strains from human CL foci in Çukurova region (north of Cyprus) and a human VL case in KuƟadasi. These were compared to Cypriot strains that were previously typed by Multilocus Enzyme Electrophoresis (MLEE) as L. donovani MON-37. Nevertheless, they were found genetically distinct from MON-37 strains of other regions and therefore their origin remained enigmatic. A population study was performed by Multilocus Microsatellite Typing (MLMT) and the profile of the Turkish strains was compared to previously analyzed L. donovani complex strains. Our results revealed close genetic relationship between Turkish and Cypriot strains, which form a genetically distinct L. infantum monophyletic group, suggesting that Cypriot strains may originate from Turkey. Our analysis indicates that the epidemiology of leishmaniasis in this region is more complicated than originally thought

    Towards an end-to-end analysis and prediction system for weather, climate, and Marine applications in the Red Sea

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    AbstractThe Red Sea, home to the second-longest coral reef system in the world, is a vital resource for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The Red Sea provides 90% of the Kingdom’s potable water by desalinization, supporting tourism, shipping, aquaculture, and fishing industries, which together contribute about 10%–20% of the country’s GDP. All these activities, and those elsewhere in the Red Sea region, critically depend on oceanic and atmospheric conditions. At a time of mega-development projects along the Red Sea coast, and global warming, authorities are working on optimizing the harnessing of environmental resources, including renewable energy and rainwater harvesting. All these require high-resolution weather and climate information. Toward this end, we have undertaken a multipronged research and development activity in which we are developing an integrated data-driven regional coupled modeling system. The telescopically nested components include 5-km- to 600-m-resolution atmospheric models to address weather and climate challenges, 4-km- to 50-m-resolution ocean models with regional and coastal configurations to simulate and predict the general and mesoscale circulation, 4-km- to 100-m-resolution ecosystem models to simulate the biogeochemistry, and 1-km- to 50-m-resolution wave models. In addition, a complementary probabilistic transport modeling system predicts dispersion of contaminant plumes, oil spill, and marine ecosystem connectivity. Advanced ensemble data assimilation capabilities have also been implemented for accurate forecasting. Resulting achievements include significant advancement in our understanding of the regional circulation and its connection to the global climate, development, and validation of long-term Red Sea regional atmospheric–oceanic–wave reanalyses and forecasting capacities. These products are being extensively used by academia, government, and industry in various weather and marine studies and operations, environmental policies, renewable energy applications, impact assessment, flood forecasting, and more.</jats:p

    The EU’s Competitiveness Fetish: Industrial Renaissance Through Internal Devaluation, Really?

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    Crises have been studied in many disciplines and from diverse perspectives for at least 150 years. Yet recent decades have seen a marked increase in the crisis literature, reflecting growing awareness of crisis phenomena from the 1970s onwards. Responding to this mainstream literature, this edited collection makes six key innovations. First, it distinguishes between crises as event and crises as process, as well as crises as accidental events or as the result of system-generated processes. Second, it distinguishes crises that can be managed through established crisis-management routines from crises of crisis-management. Third, it focuses on the symptomatology of crisis, i.e., the challenge of moving crisis symptoms to understanding underlying causes as a basis for decisive action. Fourth, it goes beyond the cliché that crises are threat and opportunity by distinguishing valid accounts of the origins and present nature of a crisis, from more speculative accounts of what potentially exists. Fifth, it explores how crises can disorient conventional wisdom, thus provoking efforts to interpret and learn about crises and draw lessons after a crisis has ended. Finally, the sixth element is the move away from the conventional focus on executive authorities and disaster management agencies, instead turning attention towards how other social forces construe crises and attempt to learn from them. Offering important insights into the pedagogy of crisis throughout, this collection will offer excellent reading to both researchers and postgraduate students

    Crisis, Common Sense and the Limits to Learning in EU External Governance

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