Geodemographics profiling of influenza A and B virus infections in community neighborhoods in Japan

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The spread of influenza viruses in a community are influenced by several factors, but no reports have focused on the relationship between the incidence of influenza and characteristics of small neighborhoods in a community. We aimed to clarify the relationship between the incidence of influenza and neighborhood characteristics using GIS and identified the type of small areas where influenza occurs frequently or infrequently.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Of the 19,077 registered influenza cases, we analyzed 11,437 influenza A and 5,193 influenza B cases that were diagnosed by the rapid antigen test in 66-86 medical facilities in Isahaya City, Japan, from 2004 to 2008. We used the commercial geodemographics dataset, Mosaic Japan to categorize and classify each neighborhood. Furthermore, we calculated the index value of influenza in crude and age adjusted rates to evaluate the incidence of influenza by Mosaic segmentation. Additional age structure analysis was performed to geodemographics segmentation to explore the relationship between influenza and family structure.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The observed number of influenza A and B patients in the neighborhoods where young couples with small children lived was approximately 10-40% higher than the expected number (p < 0.01) during all seasons. On the contrary, the number of patients in the neighborhoods of the aging society in a rural area was 20-50% lower than the expected number (p < 0.01) during all seasons. This tendency was consistent after age adjustment except in the case of influenza B, which lost significance in higher incidence areas, but the overall results indicated high transmission of influenza in areas where young families with children lived.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our analysis indicated that the incidence of influenza A and B in neighborhood groups is related to the family structure, especially the presence of children in households. Simple statistical analysis of geodemographics data is an effective method to understand the differences in the incidence of influenza among neighborhood groups, and it provides a valuable basis for community strategies to control influenza.</p

The Influence of Meteorology on the Spread of Influenza: Survival Analysis of an Equine Influenza (A/H3N8) Outbreak

The influences of relative humidity and ambient temperature on the transmission of influenza A viruses have recently been established under controlled laboratory conditions. The interplay of meteorological factors during an actual influenza epidemic is less clear, and research into the contribution of wind to epidemic spread is scarce. By applying geostatistics and survival analysis to data from a large outbreak of equine influenza (A/H3N8), we quantified the association between hazard of infection and air temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and wind velocity, whilst controlling for premises-level covariates. The pattern of disease spread in space and time was described using extraction mapping and instantaneous hazard curves. Meteorological conditions at each premises location were estimated by kriging daily meteorological data and analysed as time-lagged time-varying predictors using generalised Cox regression. Meteorological covariates time-lagged by three days were strongly associated with hazard of influenza infection, corresponding closely with the incubation period of equine influenza. Hazard of equine influenza infection was higher when relative humidity was <60% and lowest on days when daily maximum air temperature was 20–25°C. Wind speeds >30 km hour−1 from the direction of nearby infected premises were associated with increased hazard of infection. Through combining detailed influenza outbreak and meteorological data, we provide empirical evidence for the underlying environmental mechanisms that influenced the local spread of an outbreak of influenza A. Our analysis supports, and extends, the findings of studies into influenza A transmission conducted under laboratory conditions. The relationships described are of direct importance for managing disease risk during influenza outbreaks in horses, and more generally, advance our understanding of the transmission of influenza A viruses under field conditions