Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

Perceived realism moderates the relation between sexualized media consumption and permissive sexual attitudes in Dutch adolescents

This study examined whether the development of sexualized media consumption and permissive sexual attitudes would be more strongly interrelated when adolescents perceived sexualized media images as highly realistic. We used data from a three-wave longitudinal sample of 444 Dutch adolescents aged 13-16 years at baseline. Results from parallel process latent growth modeling multigroup analyses showed that higher initial levels of sexualized media consumption were associated with higher initial level of permissive sexual attitudes. Moreover, increases of sexualized media consumption over time were associated with increases of permissive sexual attitudes over time. Considering the moderation by perceived realism, we found these effects only for those who perceived sexualized media as more realistic. Findings for male and female adolescents were similar except for the relations between initial levels and subsequent development. Among male adolescents who perceived sexualized media images to be realistic, higher initial levels of permissive sexual attitudes were related to subsequent less rapid development of sexualized media consumption. For male adolescents who perceived sexualized media to be less realistic, higher initial levels of sexualized media consumption were related to a subsequent less rapid development of permissive sexual attitudes. These relations were not found for female adolescents. Overall, our results suggest that, in male and female adolescents, those with a high level of perceived realism showed a correlated development of sexualized media consumption and permissive sexual attitudes. These findings point to a need for extended information on how to guide adolescents in interpreting and handling sexualized media in everyday life