34 research outputs found

    The use of scenarios and models to evaluate the future of nature values and ecosystem services in Mediterranean forests

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    Science and society are increasingly interested in predicting the effects of global change and socio-economic development on natural systems, to ensure maintenance of both ecosystems and human well-being. The Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services has identified the combination of ecological modelling and scenario forecasting as key to improving our understanding of those effects, by evaluating the relationships and feedbacks between direct and indirect drivers of change, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. Using as case study the forests of the Mediterranean basin (complex socio-ecological systems of high social and conservation value), we reviewed the literature to assess (1) what are the modelling approaches most commonly used to predict the condition and trends of biodiversity and ecosystem services under future scenarios of global change, (2) what are the drivers of change considered in future scenarios and at what scales, and (3) what are the nature and ecosystem service indicators most commonly evaluated. Our review shows that forecasting studies make relatively little use of modelling approaches accounting for actual ecological processes and feedbacks between different socio-ecological sectors; predictions are generally made on the basis of a single (mainly climate) or a few drivers of change. In general, there is a bias in the set of nature and ecosystem service indicators assessed. In particular, cultural services and human well-being are greatly underrepresented in the literature. We argue that these shortfalls hamper our capacity to make the best use of predictive tools to inform decision-making in the context of global change.This work was supported by the Spanish Government through the INMODES project (grant number CGL2017-89999-C2-2-R), the ERA-NET FORESTERRA project INFORMED (grant number 29183), and the project Boscos Sans per a una Societat Saludable funded by Obra Social la Caixa (https://obrasociallacaixa.org/). AMO and AA were supported by Spanish Government through the “Juan de la Cierva” fellowship program (IJCI-2016-30349 and IJCI-2016-30049, respectively). JVRD was supported by the Government of Asturias and the FP7-Marie Curie-COFUND program of the European Commission (Grant “Clarín” ACA17-02)

    A sensible climate solution for the boreal forest

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    Climate change could increase fire risk across most of the managed boreal forest. Decreasing this risk by increasing the proportion of broad-leaved tree species is an overlooked mitigation–adaption strategy with multiple benefits.A sensible climate solution for the boreal forestacceptedVersio

    Carbon stock as an indicator for the estimation of anthropic pressure on territorial components

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    Since the beginning of the industrial era, humans have been modifying the chemical composition and physical properties of the atmosphere, favoring an increase in the concentration of gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrogen oxide (N2O) well beyond the limits never previously exceeded [1]. If there is still uncertainty in the world and in some cases scepticism about the real extent of environmental or climate change, the increase in the concentration of these gases shows that humans are actually changing, heavily, the environment [2]. Growing disquiet of the scientific community about phenomena linked to climate modification and land use changes, to which they are often due or at least related, has led to the need to strengthen the levels of information and develop methodologies capable of constituting an adequate framework to support policies for territorial planning and land use transformation that can boast a holistic view of services and functions that are indispensable and/or desirable for human wellbeing. It is precisely in this context that this work is aimed at providing an estimate of the amount of carbon stored within the boundaries of the Basilicata region, no longer referring to it as an estimated quantity for its own sake, but as an assessment of a service provided by ecosystems for the regulation of the global climate that has gained increasing strength over the last 50 years [3]
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