Assessing the recovery of an Antarctic predator from historical exploitation

The recovery of whale populations from centuries of exploitation will have important management and ecological implications due to greater exposure to anthropogenic activities and increasing prey consumption. Here, a Bayesian population model integrates catch data, estimates of abundance, and information on genetics and biology to assess the recovery of western South Atlantic (WSA) humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae). Modelling scenarios evaluated the sensitivity of model outputs resulting from the use of different data, different model assumptions and uncertainty in catch allocation and in accounting for whales killed but not landed. A long period of exploitation drove WSA humpback whales to the brink of extinction. They declined from nearly 27 000 (95% PI = 22 800–33 000) individuals in 1830 to only 450 (95% PI = 200–1400) whales in the mid-1950s. Protection led to a strong recovery and the current population is estimated to be at 93% (95% PI = 73–100%) of its pre-exploitation size. The recovery of WSA humpback whales may result in large removals of their primary prey, the Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba), and has the potential to modify the community structure in their feeding grounds. Continued monitoring is needed to understand how these whales will respond to modern threats and to climate-driven changes to their habitats

Occupancy dynamics of South American Sea-Lions in Brazilian Haul-outs

Along the Brazilian coast only two haul-outs of South American sea lions (Otaria flavescens) are known: Ilha dos Lobos and Molhe Leste, both located in the southernmost state of Brazil, Rio Grande do Sul. Most sea lions observed in these haul-outs are adult and sub-adult males. It is supposed that the species' presence in these areas is due to food supply and absence of parental assistance by males. This study analysed the use of these haul-outs by O. flavescens between 1993 and 2002 based on counting data of observed individuals. Bayesian generalised linear mixed models were used to evaluate differences in abundance between areas, long term trends and seasonal patterns. Results showed that for O. flavescens abundance had a long term trend of increased average occupancy over the study period, with seasonal variation reaching the highest within-year value in August (Ilha dos Lobos) and October (Molhe Leste). The novel application of this powerful statistical modelling approach resulted in a useful tool to quantify occupancy dynamic

Occupancy dynamics of South American Sea-Lions in Brazilian Haul-outs

Along the Brazilian coast only two haul-outs of South American sea lions (Otaria flavescens) are known: Ilha dos Lobos and Molhe Leste, both located in the southernmost state of Brazil, Rio Grande do Sul. Most sea lions observed in these haul-outs are adult and sub-adult males. It is supposed that the species' presence in these areas is due to food supply and absence of parental assistance by males. This study analysed the use of these haul-outs by O. flavescens between 1993 and 2002 based on counting data of observed individuals. Bayesian generalised linear mixed models were used to evaluate differences in abundance between areas, long term trends and seasonal patterns. Results showed that for O. flavescens abundance had a long term trend of increased average occupancy over the study period, with seasonal variation reaching the highest within-year value in August (Ilha dos Lobos) and October (Molhe Leste). The novel application of this powerful statistical modelling approach resulted in a useful tool to quantify occupancy dynamic

Medium- and long-term temporal trends in the fish assemblage inhabiting a surf zone, analyzed by Bayesian generalized additive models

The present study characterizes the fish assemblage in the surf zone of Cassino Beach, Rio Grande, Brazil, and analyzes temporal fluctuations in richness and abundance of these species in medium (months) and long terms (years), associating them also with abiotic covariates. Data were collected monthly between 1996 and 2012 at two locations. Bayesian generalized additive models (GAMs) were used as statistical tool, placing this study among few that have used Bayesian GAMs in Ecology. Our results show a decrease in both species richness and abundance of the most representative species, over the last 16 years, but no significant distinction between locations. Water temperature and salinity along with seasonality were the statistically most influential explanatory covariates to describe fluctuations in richness and abundance. Higher discharge rates of the three main rivers that flow into Patos Lagoon (Jacuı´, Taquari, Camaqua˜) were associated with increased richness and abundance of some species in the assemblage. Hence, our findings show that medium- and long-term fluctuations in richness and species abundance are controlled by abiotic factors related to seasonal cycles (temperature) and productivity of the ecosystem. Long-term changes seem to be also related to man-induced factors and climate change; but further research is needed

Long-Term Seasonal and Interannual Patterns of Marine Mammal Strandings in Subtropical Western South Atlantic

Understanding temporal patterns of marine mammal occurrence is useful for establishing conservation strategies. We used a 38 yr-long dataset spanning 1976 to 2013 to describe temporal patterns and trends in marine mammal strandings along a subtropical stretch of the east coast of South America. This region is influenced by a transitional zone between tropical and temperate waters and is considered an important fishing ground off Brazil. Generalized Additive Models were used to evaluate the temporal stranding patterns of the most frequently stranded species. Forty species were documented in 12,540 stranding events. Franciscana (n = 4,574), South American fur seal, (n = 3,419), South American sea lion (n = 2,049), bottlenose dolphins (n = 293) and subantarctic fur seal (n = 219) were the most frequently stranded marine mammals. The seasonality of strandings of franciscana and bottlenose dolphin coincided with periods of higher fishing effort and strandings of South American and subantarctic fur seals with post-reproductive dispersal. For South American sea lion the seasonality of strandings is associated with both fishing effort and post-reproductive dispersal. Some clear seasonal patterns were associated with occurrence of cold- (e.g. subantarctic fur seal) and warm-water (e.g. rough-toothed dolphin) species in winter and summer, respectively. Inter-annual increases in stranding rate were observed for franciscana and South American fur seal and these are likely related to increased fishing effort and population growth, respectively. For subantarctic fur seal the stranding rate showed a slight decline while for bottlenose dolphin it remained steady. No significant year to year variation in stranding rate was observed for South American sea lion. The slight decrease in frequency of temperate/polar marine mammals and the increased occurrence of subtropical/tropical species since the late 1990s might be associated with environmental changes linked to climate change. This long-term study indicates that temporal stranding patterns of marine mammals might be explained by either fishing-related or environmental factors