Extreme events and predictability of catastrophic failure in composite materials and in the Earth

Despite all attempts to isolate and predict extreme earthquakes, these nearly always occur without obvious warning in real time: fully deterministic earthquake prediction is very much a ‘black swan’. On the other hand engineering-scale samples of rocks and other composite materials often show clear precursors to dynamic failure under controlled conditions in the laboratory, and successful evacuations have occurred before several volcanic eruptions. This may be because extreme earthquakes are not statistically special, being an emergent property of the process of dynamic rupture. Nevertheless, probabilistic forecasting of event rate above a given size, based on the tendency of earthquakes to cluster in space and time, can have significant skill compared to say random failure, even in real-time mode. We address several questions in this debate, using examples from the Earth (earthquakes, volcanoes) and the laboratory, including the following. How can we identify ‘characteristic’ events, i.e. beyond the power law, in model selection (do dragon-kings exist)? How do we discriminate quantitatively between stationary and non-stationary hazard models (is a dragon likely to come soon)? Does the system size (the size of the dragon’s domain) matter? Are there localising signals of imminent catastrophic failure we may not be able to access (is the dragon effectively invisible on approach)? We focus on the effect of sampling effects and statistical uncertainty in the identification of extreme events and their predictability, and highlight the strong influence of scaling in space and time as an outstanding issue to be addressed by quantitative studies, experimentation and models

History of clinical transplantation

How transplantation came to be a clinical discipline can be pieced together by perusing two volumes of reminiscences collected by Paul I. Terasaki in 1991-1992 from many of the persons who were directly involved. One volume was devoted to the discovery of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), with particular reference to the human leukocyte antigens (HLAs) that are widely used today for tissue matching.1 The other focused on milestones in the development of clinical transplantation.2 All the contributions described in both volumes can be traced back in one way or other to the demonstration in the mid-1940s by Peter Brian Medawar that the rejection of allografts is an immunological phenomenon.3,4 © 2008 Springer New York

Associations between prenatal exposure to phthalates and timing of menarche and growth and adiposity into Adulthood: A Twenty-Years Birth Cohort Study

Phthalates are ubiquitous environmental chemicals with endocrine disrupting properties and potentially obesogenic effects. We hypothesised that antenatal phthalate exposure may influence growth and adiposity patterns in girls through childhood into adolescence. Among 1342 Raine Study singleton females, 462 had maternal serum and at least one outcome available up to 20 years of age. Individuals’ maternal serum collected at 18 and 34 weeks gestation was pooled and analyzed for concentrations of 32 metabolites of 15 phthalate diesters. Cox regression and linear models were used to determine associations between maternal phthalate levels and age at menarche, change in height and weight z-scores between birth and two years, height from birth to 20 years, BMI from two to 20 years, deviation from mid-parental height at age 20 and DEXA scan measures at age 20. Weak negative associations were detected with some phthalate metabolites and change in height and weight z-score during infancy. Weak positive associations between some of the high molecular weight phthalate metabolites and height z-score were detected during childhood. While still within the normal range, age at menarche was slightly delayed in girls with higher prenatal exposure to the higher molecular weight phthalate metabolites. We derived some associations between prenatal phthalate exposure with early growth patterns and age at menarche

A magnetically diluted CMN thermometer

A powdered Ce0.03La0.97 magnesium nitrate thermometer has been developed to facilitate specific heat measurements in liquid 3He. Comparison with a platinum NMR thermometer suggests that the magnetic temperature T* is related to the absolute temperature T by T = T* + Δ, where Δ = - 0.16 ± 0.01 mK.Un thermomètre à poudre de CMN dilué (Ce0,03La0,97) et un thermomètre à poudre de platine destinés à mesurer la chaleur spécifique de l'hélium-3 superfluide ont été réalisés. Leur comparaison suggère que la température magnétique T* du CMN dilué est reliée à la température absolue T par la relation T = T* + Δ où Δ = - 0,16 ± 0,01 mK

Armut, Krankheit und Arzneimittel: Eine unheilige Allianz? Entwicklungspolitik, Gesundheitspolitik und die Rolle der Pharmazeutika in der Dritten Welt

Bibliothek Weltwirtschaft Kiel A 167662 / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekSIGLEDEGerman