Evaluation of bottom-up and top-down strategies for aggregated forecasts: state space models and arima applications

Abstract. In this research, we consider monthly series from the M4 competition to study the relative performance of top-down and bottom-up strategies by means of implementing forecast automation of state space and ARIMA models. For the bottomup strategy, the forecast for each series is developed individually and then these are combined to produce a cumulative forecast of the aggregated series. For the top-down strategy, the series or components values are first combined and then a single forecast is determined for the aggregated series. Based on our implementation, state space models showed a higher forecast performance when a top-down strategy is applied. ARIMA models had a higher forecast performance for the bottom-up strategy. For state space models the top-down strategy reduced the overall error significantly. ARIMA models showed to be more accurate when forecasts are first determined individually. As part of the development we also proposed an approach to improve the forecasting procedure of aggregation strategies

Regulation of intracellular free arachidonic acid in Aplysia nervous system

We have studied the regulation of arachidonic acid (AA) uptake, metabolism, and release in Aplysia nervous system. Following uptake of [ 3 H]AA, the distribution of radioactivity in intracellular and extracellular lipid pools was measured as a function of time in the presence or absence of exogenous AA. The greatest amount of AA was esterified into phosphatidylinositol (relative to pool size). We found that the intracellular free AA pool underwent rapid turnover, and that radioactive free AA and eicosanoids were released at a rapid rate into the extracellular medium, both in the presence and absence of exogenous AA. Most of the released radioactivity originated from phosphatidylinositol.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/48020/1/232_2005_Article_BF01868464.pd

Prevalence, years lived with disability, and trends in anaemia burden by severity and cause, 1990-2021: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Anaemia is a major health problem worldwide. Global estimates of anaemia burden are crucial for developing appropriate interventions to meet current international targets for disease mitigation. We describe the prevalence, years lived with disability, and trends of anaemia and its underlying causes in 204 countries and territories. Methods We estimated population-level distributions of haemoglobin concentration by age and sex for each location from 1990 to 2021. We then calculated anaemia burden by severity and associated years lived with disability (YLDs). With data on prevalence of the causes of anaemia and associated cause-specific shifts in haemoglobin concentrations, we modelled the proportion of anaemia attributed to 37 underlying causes for all locations, years, and demographics in the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Findings In 2021, the global prevalence of anaemia across all ages was 24·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 23·9–24·7), corresponding to 1·92 billion (1·89–1·95) prevalent cases, compared with a prevalence of 28·2% (27·8–28·5) and 1·50 billion (1·48–1·52) prevalent cases in 1990. Large variations were observed in anaemia burden by age, sex, and geography, with children younger than 5 years, women, and countries in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia being particularly affected. Anaemia caused 52·0 million (35·1–75·1) YLDs in 2021, and the YLD rate due to anaemia declined with increasing Socio-demographic Index. The most common causes of anaemia YLDs in 2021 were dietary iron deficiency (cause-specific anaemia YLD rate per 100 000 population: 422·4 [95% UI 286·1–612·9]), haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias (89·0 [58·2–123·7]), and other neglected tropical diseases (36·3 [24·4–52·8]), collectively accounting for 84·7% (84·1–85·2) of anaemia YLDs. Interpretation Anaemia remains a substantial global health challenge, with persistent disparities according to age, sex, and geography. Estimates of cause-specific anaemia burden can be used to design locally relevant health interventions aimed at improving anaemia management and prevention. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Photochromic fibers and fabrics

Photochromic fibers and fabrics can change color in response to light radiation. They represent a smart textile having attracted much attention recently and showing potential applications in diverse areas. This review chapter gives an overview of the state-of-the-art techniques for the preparation of photochromic fibers and fabrics. The properties and applications of photochromic fabrics are also discussed

Sphingomyelin-derived lipids differentially regulate the extracellular signal-regulated kinase 2 (ERK-2) and c-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK) signal cascades in airway smooth muscle

In ASM cells platelet-derived growth factor stimulates rapid transient sphingosine phosphate formation, the activation of extracellular signal-regulated kinase 2 (ERK-2), the phosphorylation of p70(56K), and a ninefold increase in DNA synthesis. In contrast, this growth factor fails to activate c-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK). Based upon these findings, we have tested whether the sphingomyelin-derived sphingolipids play a role in growth factor signalling by assessing their effect on ERK-2, JNK, and p70(56K). We demonstrate that sphingosine phosphate induces the activation of ERK-2, is ineffective against JNK, and fails to induce the phosphorylation of p70(56K). The latter may explain why it is a poor mitogen when added directly to ASM cells. In contrast, sphingosine and cell-permeable ceramides elicit the prominent tyrosyl phosphorylation and activation of JNK, are poor stimulators of ERK-2, and do not induce the phosphorylation of p70(56K). Therefore, the specificity of signalling through either ERK-2 or JNK cascades may be determined by the rapid agonist-dependent interconversion of these sphingomyelin-derived lipids. This may also provide a dynamic mechanism that enables growth factors and cytokines to elicit pleiotropic cell responses, such as proliferation and cell survival. For instance, both ceramide and sphingosine will elicit growth arrest via activation of JNK, whereas sphingosine phosphate will potentiate growth-factor-stimulated DNA synthesis, a consequence of the activation of ERK-2, Furthermore, under certain conditions, sphingosine and ceramide stimulate cAMP formation, a negative modulator of cell growth, whereas sphingosine phosphate depresses cAMP, thereby enhancing its own growth-promoting properties. From these studies, it is evident that sphingosine phosphate displays a signalling profile that is consistent with it mediating part of the action of platelet-derived growth factor