Sampling Once…Using Data Multiple Times.

presentaciónMarine ecosystem variability shows large fluctuations on a wide variety of scales, from seconds to millennia and from local to global. This limits our ability to observe these systems and to develop good tools to predict how changes in the environment may affect their physical and biological properties. It also limits our ability to differentiate anthropogenic from natural processes. An example is how difficult it is to compare data collected in different sampling locations and at different times. Time series data help resolve both short- and longer-term scales of variability and provide context for traditional process-oriented studies. Time series projects focusing on biogeochemical and ecological observations have yielded important scientific results. They have helped to: (i) evaluate the statistical significance of the ranges of variability of many parameters and environmental variables and biological communities, and (ii) quantify and evaluate the dimension of the interactions between key physical/chemical oceanographic processes and biological rates in plankton communities. As a result, time series are helping estimate warming rates and trends as well as the effects of global change on biota. They have established reference baselines to evaluate the magnitude of environmental perturbations and estimate recovery times on biodiversity and productivity of specific trophic levels. In spite of their scientific value, marine time series are difficult to maintain over time because of costs and availability of trained personnel. Only a few survive beyond a decade. There is great potential in sharing and combining marine data sets from different time series programs from around the world. This allows for comparisons of changes occurring in distant locations, and helps detect changes that occur at broad scales, perhaps even global scales, and to distinguish them from local imbalances or fluctuation. Sharing data can have important economic and social benefits. For instance, efficient use of existing marine data represents a significant cost saving from the 2 billion Euro spent each year now in the EU collecting and accessing to marine data. From the social point of view, the demand from different stakeholders for answers to the challenges posed by changes in the marine environment is growing rapidly. Sharing and accessing time series data would reduce the uncertainties in the management of marine resources and ecosystem services. The UNESCO IOC advocates that: (i) an observation not made today is lost forever, (ii) existing observations are lost if not made accessible, (iii) the collective value of data sets is greater than its dispersed value, and (iv) open access to standardised time series data must be pursued as a common, coordinated international goal.IOC-UNESCO, IE

Predictability of Self-Organizing Systems

We study the predictability of large events in self-organizing systems. We focus on a set of models which have been studied as analogs of earthquake faults and fault systems, and apply methods based on techniques which are of current interest in seismology. In all cases we find detectable correlations between precursory smaller events and the large events we aim to forecast. We compare predictions based on different patterns of precursory events and find that for all of the models a new precursor based on the spatial distribution of activity outperforms more traditional measures based on temporal variations in the local activity.Comment: 15 pages, plain.tex with special macros included, 4 figure

Oxygen Abundances in Two Metal-Poor Subgiants from the Analysis of the 6300 A Forbidden O I Line

Recent LTE analyses (Israelian et al. 1998 and Bosegaard et al. 1999) of the OH bands in the optical-ultraviolet spectra of nearby metal-poor subdwarfs indicate that oxygen abundances are generally higher than those previously determined. The difference increases with decreasing metallicity and reaches delta([O/Fe]) ~ +0.6 dex as [Fe/H] approaches -3.0. Employing high resolution (R = 50000), high S/N (~ 250) echelle spectra of the two stars found by Israelian et al. (1998) to have the highest [O/Fe]-ratios, viz, BD +23 3130 and BD +37 1458, we conducted abundance analyses based on about 60 Fe I and 7-9 Fe II lines. We determined from Kurucz LTE models the values of the stellar parameters, as well as abundances of Na, Ni, and the traditional alpha-elements, independent of the calibration of color vs $T_{eff}$ scales. We determined oxygen abundances from spectral synthesis of the stronger line (6300 A) of the [O I] doublet. The syntheses of the [O I] line lead to smaller values of [O/Fe], consistent with those found earlier among halo field and globular cluster giants. We obtain [O/Fe] = +0.35 +/- 0.2 for BD +23 3130 and +0.50 +/- 0.2 for BD +37 1458. In the former, the [O I] line is very weak (~ 1 mA), so that the quoted [O/Fe] value may in reality be an upper limit. Therefore in these two stars a discrepancy exists between the [O/Fe]- ratios derived from [O I] and the OH feature, and the origin of this difference remains unclear. Until the matter is clarified, we suggest it is premature to conclude that the ab initio oxygen abundances of old, metal-poor stars need to be revised drastically upward.Comment: 38 pages, 5 tables, 14 figures To appear in July 1999 AJ Updated April 16, 1999. Fixed typo

Global survival trends for brain tumors, by histology: analysis of individual records for 556,237 adults diagnosed in 59 countries during 2000-2014 (CONCORD-3)

Background Survival is a key metric of the effectiveness of a health system in managing cancer. We set out to provide a comprehensive examination of worldwide variation and trends in survival from brain tumors in adults, by histology. Methods We analyzed individual data for adults (15-99 years) diagnosed with a brain tumor (ICD-O-3 topography code C71) during 2000-2014, regardless of tumor behavior. Data underwent a 3-phase quality control as part of CONCORD-3. We estimated net survival for 11 histology groups, using the unbiased nonparametric Pohar Perme estimator. Results The study included 556,237 adults. In 2010-2014, the global range in age-standardized 5-year net survival for the most common sub-types was broad: in the range 20%-38% for diffuse and anaplastic astrocytoma, from 4% to 17% for glioblastoma, and between 32% and 69% for oligodendroglioma. For patients with glioblastoma, the largest gains in survival occurred between 2000-2004 and 2005-2009. These improvements were more noticeable among adults diagnosed aged 40-70 years than among younger adults. Conclusions To the best of our knowledge, this study provides the largest account to date of global trends in population-based survival for brain tumors by histology in adults. We have highlighted remarkable gains in 5-year survival from glioblastoma since 2005, providing large-scale empirical evidence on the uptake of chemoradiation at population level. Worldwide, survival improvements have been extensive, but some countries still lag behind. Our findings may help clinicians involved in national and international tumor pathway boards to promote initiatives aimed at more extensive implementation of clinical guidelines

Lithium abundances of halo dwarfs based on excitation temperature. I. LTE

The discovery of the Spite plateau in the abundances of 7Li for metal-poor stars led to the determination of an observationally deduced primordial lithium abundance. However, after the success of the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) in determining the baryon density, OmegaBh^2, there was a discrepancy between observationally determined and theoretically determined abundances in the case of 7Li. One of the most important uncertain factors in the calculation of the stellar 7Li abundance is the effective temperature, Teff. We use sixteen metal-poor halo dwarfs to calculate new Teff values using the excitation energy method. With this temperature scale we then calculate new Li abundances for this group of stars in an attempt to resolve the 7Li discrepancy. Using high signal-to-noise (S/N ~ 100) spectra of 16 metal-poor halo dwarfs, obtained with the UCLES spectrograph on the AAT, measurements of equivalent widths from a set of unblended FeI lines are made. These equivalent widths are then used to calculate new Teff values with the use of the single line radiative transfer program WIDTH6, where we have constrained the gravity using either theoretical isochrones or the Hipparcos parallax, rather than the ionization balance. The lithium abundances of the stars are calculated with these temperatures. The physical parameters are derived for the 16 programme stars, and two standards. These include Teff, log g, [Fe/H], microturbulence and 7Li abundances. A comparison between the temperature scale of this work and those adopted by others has been undertaken. We find good consistency with the temperatures derived from the Halpha line by Asplund et al. (2006), but not with the hotter scale of Melendez & Ramirez (2004).Comment: 13 pages, 9 figure

Global survival trends for brain tumors, by histology: analysis of individual records for 556,237 adults diagnosed in 59 countries during 2000-2014 (CONCORD-3)

BACKGROUND Survival is a key metric of the effectiveness of a health system in managing cancer. We set out to provide a comprehensive examination of worldwide variation and trends in survival from brain tumors in adults, by histology. METHODS We analyzed individual data for adults (15-99 years) diagnosed with a brain tumor (ICD-O-3 topography code C71) during 2000-2014, regardless of tumor behavior. Data underwent a 3-phase quality control as part of CONCORD-3. We estimated net survival for 11 histology groups, using the unbiased nonparametric Pohar Perme estimator. RESULTS The study included 556,237 adults. In 2010-2014, the global range in age-standardized 5-year net survival for the most common sub-types was broad: in the range 20%-38% for diffuse and anaplastic astrocytoma, from 4% to 17% for glioblastoma, and between 32% and 69% for oligodendroglioma. For patients with glioblastoma, the largest gains in survival occurred between 2000-2004 and 2005-2009. These improvements were more noticeable among adults diagnosed aged 40-70 years than among younger adults. CONCLUSIONS To the best of our knowledge, this study provides the largest account to date of global trends in population-based survival for brain tumors by histology in adults. We have highlighted remarkable gains in 5-year survival from glioblastoma since 2005, providing large-scale empirical evidence on the uptake of chemoradiation at population level. Worldwide, survival improvements have been extensive, but some countries still lag behind. Our findings may help clinicians involved in national and international tumor pathway boards to promote initiatives aimed at more extensive implementation of clinical guidelines

General practitioners and tutors' experiences with peer group academic detailing: a qualitative study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Prescription Peer Academic Detailing (Rx-PAD) project is an educational intervention study aiming at improving GPs' competence in pharmacotherapy. GPs in CME peer groups were randomised to receive a tailored intervention, either to support a safer prescription practice for elderly patients or to improve prescribing of antibiotics to patients with respiratory tract infections. The project was based on the principles of peer group academic detailing, incorporating individual feedback on GPs' prescription patterns. We did a study to explore GPs and tutors' experiences with peer group academic detailing, and to explore GPs' reasons for deviating from recommended prescribing practice.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data was collected through nine focus group interviews with a total of 39 GPs and 20 tutors. Transcripts from the interviews were analyzed by two researchers according to a procedure for thematic content analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A shared understanding of the complex decision-making involved in prescribing in general practice was reported by both GPs and tutors as essential for an open discussion in the CME groups. Tutors experienced that CME groups differed regarding structure and atmosphere, and in some groups it was a challenge to run the scheme as planned. Individual feedback motivated GPs to reflect on and to improve their prescribing practice, though feedback reports could cause distress if the prescribing practice was unfavourable. Explanations for inappropriate prescriptions were lack of knowledge, factors associated with patients, the GP's background, the practice, and other health professionals or health care facilities.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>GPs and tutors experienced peer group academic detailing as a suitable method to discuss and learn more about pharmacotherapy. An important outcome for GPs was being more reflective about their prescriptions. Disclosure of inappropriate prescribing can cause distress in some doctors, and tutors must be prepared to recognise and manage such reactions.</p

Mapping Vesta: First Results from Dawn’s Survey Orbit

The geologic objectives of the Dawn Mission [1] are to derive Vesta’s shape, map the surface geology, understand the geological context and contribute to the determination of the asteroids’ origin and evolution.Geomorphology and distribution of surface features will provide evidence for impact cratering, tectonic activity, volcanism, and regolith processes. Spectral measurements of the surface will provide evidence of the compositional characteristics of geological units. Age information, as derived from crater sizefrequency distributions, provides the stratigraphic context for the structural and compositional mapping results, thus revealing the geologic history of Vesta. We present here the first results of the Dawn mission from data collected during the approach to Vesta, and its first discrete orbit phase – the Survey Orbit, which lasts 21 days after the spacecraft had established a circular polar orbit at a radius of ~3000 km with a beta angle of 10°-15°

Viral Endomyocardial Infection Is an Independent Predictor and Potentially Treatable Risk Factor for Graft Loss and Coronary Vasculopathy in Pediatric Cardiac Transplant Recipients

ObjectivesThis study sought to evaluate the outcome and prevalence of viral endomyocardial infection after cardiac transplantation.BackgroundViral myocardial infection causes heart failure, but its role after cardiac transplantation is unclear. We hypothesized that viral infection of the cardiac allograft reduces graft survival.MethodsBetween June 1999 and November 2004, 94 pediatric cardiac transplant patients were screened for the presence of viral genome in serial endomyocardial biopsies (EMBs) using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays. Graft loss, advanced transplant coronary artery disease (TCAD), and acute rejection (AR) were compared in the PCR-positive (n = 37) and PCR-negative (n = 57) groups, using time-dependent Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses. From November 2002 to November 2004, intravenous immunoglobulin therapy (IVIG) was administered to patients with PCR-positive EMBs. The outcomes of the IVIG-treated, PCR-positive patients (n = 20) were compared with IVIG-untreated, PCR-positive patients (n = 17).ResultsViral genomes were detected in EMBs from 37 (39%) patients; parvovirus B19, adenovirus, and Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) were the most common. The PCR-positive group (n = 37, 25% graft loss at 2.4 years) had decreased graft survival (p < 0.001) compared with the PCR-negative group (n = 57, 25% graft loss at 8.7 years) and developed advanced TCAD prematurely (p = 0.001). The number of AR episodes was similar in both groups. On multivariate analysis, presence of viral genome was an independent risk factor for graft loss (relative risk: 4.2, p = 0.015). The time to advanced TCAD after becoming PCR-positive was longer in the IVIG-treated patients (p = 0.03) with a trend toward improved graft survival (p = 0.06).ConclusionsViral endomyocardial infection is an independent predictor of graft loss in pediatric cardiac transplant recipients. This effect appears to be mediated through premature development of advanced TCAD. IVIG therapy in this subgroup may improve survival and merits further investigation

Abundances of Extremely Metal-Poor Star Candidates

We present chemical abundances for 110 stars identified in objective-prism surveys as candidates to be very metal-poor. The abundances are derived from high S/N, intermediate-resolution spectra obtained with the Keck Observatory Echelle Spectrometer and Imager. An additional 25 stars with well-determined abundances ranging from [Fe/H]$=-1.5$ and -3.2 were observed and the results used to help calibrate our analysis and determine the accuracy of our abundance determinations. Abundances for the program stars were measured for Fe, Mg, Ca, Ti, Cr and Ba with an accuracy of approximately 0.3 dex. 53 of the stars in our sample have [Fe/H]<= -2, 22 have [Fe/H]<= -2.5 and 13 stars have [Fe/H]<= -2.9. Surprisingly, approximately one third of the sample is relatively metal rich with [Fe/H]>-1.5. In addition to identifying a number of extremely metal-poor stars, this study also shows that moderate-resolution spectra obtained with the Keck Echelle Spectrometer and Imager yield relatively accurate abundances for stars as faint as V=14 in modest exposure time (~20 minutes). This capability will prove useful if the so-far elusive stars at [Fe/H]<-4 turn out to be mostly fainter than V=15.Comment: 60 pages, 10 figures, Accepted for publication in the A