Changes in disease characteristics and response rates among patients in the United Kingdom starting anti-tumour necrosis factor therapy for rheumatoid arthritis between 2001 and 2008

Objectives. Anti-TNF therapy has significantly improved outcomes for patients with severe RA. In the UK, changing financial restrictions and increasing experience with their use may have resulted in changes to the way physicians use anti-TNF therapies. The aim of this analysis was to examine changes in disease characteristics and response rates among patients starting anti-TNF therapy for RA over an 8-year period

Effects of switching between anti-TNF therapies on HAQ response in patients who do not respond to their first anti-TNF drug

Objectives. Small studies have shown an improvement in disease activity in patients with RA who have switched between anti-TNF therapies for reasons of inefficacy. However, it is not clear whether switching improves longer term outcomes, such as disability. This analysis compares changes in HAQ scores 1 yr following lack of response to a first anti-TNF based on subsequent treatment during that year

How to develop, externally validate, and update multinomial prediction models

Multinomial prediction models (MPMs) have a range of potential applications across healthcare where the primary outcome of interest has multiple nominal or ordinal categories. However, the application of MPMs is scarce, which may be due to the added methodological complexities that they bring. This article provides a guide of how to develop, externally validate, and update MPMs. Using a previously developed and validated MPM for treatment outcomes in rheumatoid arthritis as an example, we outline guidance and recommendations for producing a clinical prediction model using multinomial logistic regression. This article is intended to supplement existing general guidance on prediction model research. This guide is split into three parts: 1) Outcome definition and variable selection, 2) Model development, and 3) Model evaluation (including performance assessment, internal and external validation, and model recalibration). We outline how to evaluate and interpret the predictive performance of MPMs. R code is provided. We recommend the application of MPMs in clinical settings where the prediction of a nominal polytomous outcome is of interest. Future methodological research could focus on MPM-specific considerations for variable selection and sample size criteria for external validation

Predictors of response to anti-TNF therapy in ankylosing spondylitis: results from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register

Objective. Few data exist on the use of anti-TNF drugs for AS during routine clinical use in the UK. This report describes an improvement in Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI) and Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index (BASFI) after 6 months of therapy in 261 patients enrolled in a national prospective observational register