Climate change impacts on water for irrigated horticulture in the Vale of Evesham. Final Report

This project has undertaken a scoping review and assessment of the impacts of climate change on irrigated horticulture in the Vale of Evesham, an area of intense irrigated production located within the Environment Agency’s Warwickshire Avon CAMS Catchment. The research was based on a combination of methodologies including desk-based review of published and grey literature, computer agroclimatic and water balance modelling, GIS mapping, meetings with key informants and a stakeholder workshop. Future climate datasets were derived from the latest UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKICIP02) climatology, using selected emission scenarios for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. These scenarios were then used to model and map the future agroclimatic conditions under which agriculture might operate and the consequent impacts on irrigation need (depths of water applied) and volumetric demand. This was complimented by a postal survey to abstractors and a stakeholder workshop, to identify, review and assess farmer adaptation options and responses. The key findings arising from the research, implications for water resource management and recommendations for further work are summarised below. Using a geographical information system (GIS), a series of agroclimate maps have been produced, for the baseline and selected UKCIP02 scenario. The maps show major changes in agroclimate within the catchment over the next 50 years. The driest agroclimate zones are currently located around Worcester, Evesham, Tewkesbury and Gloucester, corresponding to areas where horticultural production and irrigation demand are most concentrated. By the 2020s, all agroclimate zones are predicted to increase in aridity. By the 2050s the entire catchment is predicted to have a drier agroclimate than is currently experienced anywhere in the driest parts of the catchment. This will have major impacts on the pattern of land use and irrigation water demand. Cont/d

Porous squeeze-film flow

The squeeze-film flow of a thin layer of Newtonian fluid filling the gap between a flat impermeable surface moving under a prescribed constant load and a flat thin porous bed coating a stationary flat impermeable surface is considered. Unlike in the classical case of an impermeable bed, in which an infinite time is required for the two surfaces to touch, for a porous bed contact occurs in a finite contact time. Using a lubrication approximation an implicit expression for the fluid layer thickness and an explicit expression for the contact time are obtained and analysed. In addition, the fluid particle paths are calculated, and the penetration depths of fluid particles into the porous bed are determined. In particular, the behaviour in the asymptotic limit of small permeability, in which the contact time is large but finite, is investigated. Finally, the results are interpreted in the context of lubrication in the human knee joint, and some conclusions are drawn about the contact time of the cartilage-coated femoral condyles and tibial plateau and the penetration of nutrients into the cartilage

Squeeze-Film Flow in the Presence of a Thin Porous Bed, with Application to the Human Knee Joint

Motivated by the desire for a better understanding of the lubrication of the human knee joint, the squeeze-film flow of a thin layer of Newtonian fluid (representing the synovial fluid) filling the gap between a flat impermeable surface (representing the femoral condyles) and a flat thin porous bed (representing the articular cartilage) coating a stationary flat impermeable surface (representing the tibial plateau) is considered. As the impermeable surface approaches the porous bed under a prescribed constant load all of the fluid is squeezed out of the gap in a finite contact time. In the context of the knee, the size of this contact time suggests that when a person stands still for a short period of time their knees may be fluid lubricated, but that when they stand still for a longer period of time contact between the cartilage-coated surfaces may occur. The fluid particle paths are calculated, and the penetration depths of fluid particles into the porous bed are determined. In the context of the knee, these penetration depths provide a measure of how far into the cartilage nutrients are carried by the synovial fluid, and suggest that when a person stands still nutrients initially in the fluid layer penetrate only a relatively small distance into the cartilage. However, the model also suggests that the cumulative effect of repeated loading and unloading of the knees during physical activity such as walking or running may be sufficient to carry nutrients deep into the cartilage

Power Spectrum Estimators For Large CMB Datasets

Forthcoming high-resolution observations of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) radiation will generate datasets many orders of magnitude larger than have been obtained to date. The size and complexity of such datasets presents a very serious challenge to analysing them with existing or anticipated computers. Here we present an investigation of the currently favored algorithm for obtaining the power spectrum from a sky-temperature map --- the quadratic estimator. We show that, whilst improving on direct evaluation of the likelihood function, current implementations still inherently scale as the equivalent of the cube of the number of pixels or worse, and demonstrate the critical importance of choosing the right implementation for a particular dataset.Comment: 8 pages LATEX, no figures, corrected misaligned columns in table

A re-analysis of the three-year WMAP temperature power spectrum and likelihood

We analyze the three-year WMAP temperature anisotropy data seeking to confirm the power spectrum and likelihoods published by the WMAP team. We apply five independent implementations of four algorithms to the power spectrum estimation and two implementations to the parameter estimation. Our single most important result is that we broadly confirm the WMAP power spectrum and analysis. Still, we do find two small but potentially important discrepancies: On large angular scales there is a small power excess in the WMAP spectrum (5-10% at l<~30) primarily due to likelihood approximation issues between 13 <= l <~30. On small angular scales there is a systematic difference between the V- and W-band spectra (few percent at l>~300). Recently, the latter discrepancy was explained by Huffenberger et al. (2006) in terms of over-subtraction of unresolved point sources. As far as the low-l bias is concerned, most parameters are affected by a few tenths of a sigma. The most important effect is seen in n_s. For the combination of WMAP, Acbar and BOOMERanG, the significance of n_s =/ 1 drops from ~2.7 sigma to ~2.3 sigma when correcting for this bias. We propose a few simple improvements to the low-l WMAP likelihood code, and introduce two important extensions to the Gibbs sampling method that allows for proper sampling of the low signal-to-noise regime. Finally, we make the products from the Gibbs sampling analysis publically available, thereby providing a fast and simple route to the exact likelihood without the need of expensive matrix inversions.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ. Numerical results unchanged, but interpretation sharpened: Likelihood approximation issues at l=13-30 far more important than potential foreground issues at l <= 12. Gibbs products (spectrum and sky samples, and "easy-to-use" likelihood module) available from http://www.astro.uio.no/~hke/ under "Research

Interplay of the exciton and electron-hole plasma recombination on the photoluminescence dynamics in bulk GaAs

We present a systematic study of the exciton/electron-hole plasma photoluminescence dynamics in bulk GaAs for various lattice temperatures and excitation densities. The competition between the exciton and electron-hole pair recombination dominates the onset of the luminescence. We show that the metal-to-insulator transition, induced by temperature and/or excitation density, can be directly monitored by the carrier dynamics and the time-resolved spectral characteristics of the light emission. The dependence on carrier density of the photoluminescence rise time is strongly modified around a lattice temperature of 49 K, corresponding to the exciton binding energy (4.2 meV). In a similar way, the rise-time dependence on lattice temperature undergoes a relatively abrupt change at an excitation density of 120-180x10^15 cm^-3, which is about five times greater than the calculated Mott density in GaAs taking into account many body corrections.Comment: 15 pages, 7 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev.

Phonon Coherence and New Set of Sidebands in Phonon-Assisted Photoluminescence

We investigate excitonic polaron states comprising a local exciton and phonons in the longitudinal optical (LO) mode by solving the Schr\"{o}dinger equation. We derive an exact expression for the ground state (GS), which includes multi-phonon components with coefficients satisfying the Huang-Rhys factors. The recombination of GS and excited polaron states gives one set of sidebands in photoluminescence (PL): the multi-phonon components in the GS produce the Stokes lines and the zero-phonon components in the excited states produce the anti-Stokes lines. By introducing the mixing of the LO mode and environal phonon modes, the exciton will also couple with the latter, and the resultant polaron states result in another set of phonon sidebands. This set has a zero-phonon line higher and wider than that of the first set due to the tremendous number of the environal modes. The energy spacing between the zero-phonon lines of the first and second sets is proved to be the binding energy of the GS state. The common exciton origin of these two sets can be further verified by a characteristic Fano lineshape induced by the coherence in the mixing of the LO and the environal modes.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures 1 figure (fig. 1) replaced 1 figure (fig. 2) remove