Religion and the Evolution of Democracy: A Revised Selectorate Model for the Arab Spring

2011 was a seminal year in the history of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Popularly referred to as the Arab Spring, the region has experienced a wave of revolutions and instability. It can be classified in three broad categories within 2011: Uprisings that have resulted in the overthrow of standing regimes, uprisings that have failed to overthrow standing regimes, and states that have not experienced popular revolts. In the first category Libya, Egypt, Yemen, and Tunisia have all experienced uprisings resulting in the respective departure of Muamar Gaddafi, Hosni Mubarak, Ali Abdullah Saleh, and Zine Al Abidine Ben Ali. In contrast Syria and Bahrain have experienced uprisings that have not resulted into the toppling of their regimes thus far. Finally, countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iran have experienced none of the instability observed in 2011 within the same time period. In tracking the evolution of selectorates, I identified the rise of actors within the newly developing coalitions whose Islamist preferences are unaccounted for in the standard Selectorate Model. As later explained in detail, Selectorate Theory is driven by the public-private goods argument. The theory states that a leader’s political survival is based on the mix of private payoffs he can provide to his selectorate and public goods provided to the general population. The once secular despots are either gone or are on the way out as evident by the removal of Hosni Mubarak, Zine Abidine Ben-Ali, Saddam Hussein, Muamar Gaddafi, Ali Abdullah Saleh, and the currently embattled Bashar Al- Assad. They are being replaced or have already been removed by governments that are led by Islamic Parties. Therefore, newly elected or appointed leaders must take into account the role of religion in their calculus for political survival in a way that they did not before. This begs the question: what about the regimes in my case studies that have not been toppled such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Bahrain? Although these are highly autocratic governments, the leaders of such governments have a legitimacy that is derived from implicit approval of their Islamist allies. This strengthens the argument that religion must be accounted for beyond the standard Selectorate Model rationale for political survival in MENA. In such context I provide a revised Selectorate Model explanation that accounts for the role of religion. I conclude that the standard Selectorate Theory is insufficient for MENA because it is does not account for the role of religion. By testing the coalitional distribution and evolution of selectorates, I developed a revised Selectorate Model that includes the role of religion along with the standard private payoffs – public goods argument. The role of religion is expressed by the presence of religious stakeholders in the agent based model such as clerics, shura councils or Islamic parties present in all selectorates in MENA. I tracked the selectorates through a series of predictions made throughout the course of 2011 using the Senturion agent based model. It serves as a powerful alternative to standard historical analysis and wisdom. I provide an explanation of why certain regimes fell while others remained relatively stable and why some governments experiencing similar instability remain using agent based modeling (ABM) in application to Selectorate Theory

Effects of Gravitational Microlensing on P-Cygni Profiles of Type Ia Supernovae

A brief description of the deformed spectra of microlensed SNe Ia is presented. We show that microlensing amplification can have significant effects on line profiles. The resonance-scattering code SYNOW is used to compute the intensity profile in the rest frame of the supernova. The observed (microlensed) spectral lines are predicted assuming a simple stellar-size deflector, and are compared to unlensed cases to show the effects microlensing by solar-size deflectors can have on spectral lines. We limit our work to spherically symmetric deflectors.Comment: 18 pages, 9 figures, references added, submitted to Ap

Time-Integrated Neutrino Source Searches with 10 Years of IceCube Data.

This Letter presents the results from pointlike neutrino source searches using ten years of IceCube data collected between April 6, 2008 and July 10, 2018. We evaluate the significance of an astrophysical signal from a pointlike source looking for an excess of clustered neutrino events with energies typically above ∼1  TeV among the background of atmospheric muons and neutrinos. We perform a full-sky scan, a search within a selected source catalog, a catalog population study, and three stacked Galactic catalog searches. The most significant point in the northern hemisphere from scanning the sky is coincident with the Seyfert II galaxy NGC 1068, which was included in the source catalog search. The excess at the coordinates of NGC 1068 is inconsistent with background expectations at the level of 2.9σ after accounting for statistical trials from the entire catalog. The combination of this result along with excesses observed at the coordinates of three other sources, including TXS 0506+056, suggests that, collectively, correlations with sources in the northern catalog are inconsistent with background at 3.3σ significance. The southern catalog is consistent with background. These results, all based on searches for a cumulative neutrino signal integrated over the 10 years of available data, motivate further study of these and similar sources, including time-dependent analyses, multimessenger correlations, and the possibility of stronger evidence with coming upgrades to the detector

A Search for MeV to TeV Neutrinos from Fast Radio Bursts with IceCube

We present two searches for IceCube neutrino events coincident with 28 fast radio bursts (FRBs) and 1 repeating FRB. The first improves on a previous IceCube analysis - searching for spatial and temporal correlation of events with FRBs at energies greater than roughly 50 GeV - by increasing the effective area by an order of magnitude. The second is a search for temporal correlation of MeV neutrino events with FRBs. No significant correlation is found in either search; therefore, we set upper limits on the time-integrated neutrino flux emitted by FRBs for a range of emission timescales less than one day. These are the first limits on FRB neutrino emission at the MeV scale, and the limits set at higher energies are an order-of-magnitude improvement over those set by any neutrino telescope

Efficient propagation of systematic uncertainties from calibration to analysis with the SnowStorm method in IceCube

Efficient treatment of systematic uncertainties that depend on a large number of nuisance parameters is a persistent difficulty in particle physics and astrophysics experiments. Where low-level effects are not amenable to simple parameterization or re-weighting, analyses often rely on discrete simulation sets to quantify the effects of nuisance parameters on key analysis observables. Such methods may become computationally untenable for analyses requiring high statistics Monte Carlo with a large number of nuisance degrees of freedom, especially in cases where these degrees of freedom parameterize the shape of a continuous distribution. In this paper we present a method for treating systematic uncertainties in a computationally efficient and comprehensive manner using a single simulation set with multiple and continuously varied nuisance parameters. This method is demonstrated for the case of the depth-dependent effective dust distribution within the IceCube Neutrino Telescope

Combined sensitivity to the neutrino mass ordering with JUNO, the IceCube Upgrade, and PINGU

The ordering of the neutrino mass eigenstates is one of the fundamental open questions in neutrino physics. While current-generation neutrino oscillation experiments are able to produce moderate indications on this ordering, upcoming experiments of the next generation aim to provide conclusive evidence. In this paper we study the combined performance of the two future multi-purpose neutrino oscillation experiments JUNO and the IceCube Upgrade, which employ two very distinct and complementary routes toward the neutrino mass ordering. The approach pursued by the 20 kt medium-baseline reactor neutrino experiment JUNO consists of a careful investigation of the energy spectrum of oscillated νe produced by ten nuclear reactor cores. The IceCube Upgrade, on the other hand, which consists of seven additional densely instrumented strings deployed in the center of IceCube DeepCore, will observe large numbers of atmospheric neutrinos that have undergone oscillations affected by Earth matter. In a joint fit with both approaches, tension occurs between their preferred mass-squared differences Δm312=m32-m12 within the wrong mass ordering. In the case of JUNO and the IceCube Upgrade, this allows to exclude the wrong ordering at >5σ on a timescale of 3-7 years - even under circumstances that are unfavorable to the experiments' individual sensitivities. For PINGU, a 26-string detector array designed as a potential low-energy extension to IceCube, the inverted ordering could be excluded within 1.5 years (3 years for the normal ordering) in a joint analysis

Search for sources of astrophysical neutrinos using seven years of icecube cascade events

Low-background searches for astrophysical neutrino sources anywhere in the sky can be performed using cascade events induced by neutrinos of all flavors interacting in IceCube with energies as low as ∼1 TeV. Previously we showed that, even with just two years of data, the resulting sensitivity to sources in the southern sky is competitive with IceCube and ANTARES analyses using muon tracks induced by charge current muon neutrino interactions - especially if the neutrino emission follows a soft energy spectrum or originates from an extended angular region. Here, we extend that work by adding five more years of data, significantly improving the cascade angular resolution, and including tests for point-like or diffuse Galactic emission to which this data set is particularly well suited. For many of the signal candidates considered, this analysis is the most sensitive of any experiment to date. No significant clustering was observed, and thus many of the resulting constraints are the most stringent to date. In this paper we will describe the improvements introduced in this analysis and discuss our results in the context of other recent work in neutrino astronomy

Design and performance of the first IceAct demonstrator at the South Pole

In this paper we describe the first results of IceAct, a compact imaging air-Cherenkov telescope operating in coincidence with the IceCube Neutrino Observatory (IceCube) at the geographic South Pole. An array of IceAct telescopes (referred to as the IceAct project) is under consideration as part of the IceCube-Gen2 extension to IceCube. Surface detectors in general will be a powerful tool in IceCube-Gen2 for distinguishing astrophysical neutrinos from the dominant backgrounds of cosmic-ray induced atmospheric muons and neutrinos: the IceTop array is already in place as part of IceCube, but has a high energy threshold. Although the duty cycle will be lower for the IceAct telescopes than the present IceTop tanks, the IceAct telescopes may prove to be more effective at lowering the detection threshold for air showers. Additionally, small imaging air-Cherenkov telescopes in combination with IceTop, the deep IceCube detector or other future detector systems might improve measurements of the composition of the cosmic ray energy spectrum. In this paper we present measurements of a first 7-pixel imaging air Cherenkov telescope demonstrator, proving the capability of this technology to measure air showers at the South Pole in coincidence with IceTop and the deep IceCube detector

Velocity independent constraints on spin-dependent DM-nucleon interactions from IceCube and PICO

[EN] Adopting the Standard Halo Model (SHM) of an isotropic Maxwellian velocity distribution for dark matter (DM) particles in the Galaxy, the most stringent current constraints on their spin-dependent scattering cross-section with nucleons come from the IceCube neutrino observatory and the PICO-60 C3F8 superheated bubble chamber experiments. The former is sensitive to high energy neutrinos from the self-annihilation of DM particles captured in the Sun, while the latter looks for nuclear recoil events from DM scattering off nucleons. Although slower DM particles are more likely to be captured by the Sun, the faster ones are more likely to be detected by PICO. Recent N-body simulations suggest significant deviations from the SHM for the smooth halo component of the DM, while observations hint at a dominant fraction of the local DM being in substructures. We use the method of Ferrer et al. (JCAP 1509: 052, 2015) to exploit the complementarity between the two approaches and derive conservative constraints on DM-nucleon scattering. Our results constrain sigma SD less than or similar to 3x10-39cm2 (6x10-38cm2) at greater than or similar to 90% C.L. for a DM particle of mass 1 TeV annihilating into tau+tau- (bb) with a local density of rho DM=0.3GeV/cm3. The constraints scale inversely with rho DM and are independent of the DM velocity distribution.Aartsen, MG.; Ackermann, M.; Adams, J.; Aguilar, JA.; Ahlers, M.; Ahrens, M.; Alispach, C.... (2020). Velocity independent constraints on spin-dependent DM-nucleon interactions from IceCube and PICO. The European Physical Journal C. 80(9):1-8. https://doi.org/10.1140/epjc/s10052-020-8069-5S18809F. Ferrer, A. Ibarra, S. Wild, JCAP 1509(09), 052 (2015). arXiv:1506.03386 [hep-ph]S. van den Bergh, Publ. Astron. Soc. Pac. 111, 657 (1999). arXiv:astro-ph/9904251G. Bertone, D. Hooper, J. Silk, Phys. Rept. 405, 279 (2005). arXiv:hep-ph/0404175A.K. Drukier, K. Freese, D.N. Spergel, Phys. Rev. D 33, 3495 (1986)M. Kuhlen, N. Weiner, J. Diemand, P. Madau, B. Moore, D. Potter, J. Stadel, M. Zemp, JCAP 1002, 030 (2010). arXiv:0912.2358 [astro-ph.GA]M. Lisanti, L.E. Strigari, J.G. Wacker, R.H. Wechsler, Phys. Rev. D 83, 023519 (2011). arXiv:1010.4300 [astro-ph.CO]Y.Y. Mao, L.E. Strigari, R.H. Wechsler, H.Y. Wu, O. Hahn, Astrophys. J. 764, 35 (2013). arXiv:1210.2721 [astro-ph.CO]L. Necib, M. Lisanti, V. Belokurov, arXiv:1807.02519 [astro-ph.GA]N.W. Evans, C.A.J. O’Hare, C. McCabe, Phys. Rev. D 99(2), 023012 (2019). arXiv:1810.11468 [astro-ph.GA]M.G. Aartsen et al. [IceCube Collaboration], Eur. Phys. J. C 77, no. 3, 146 (2017) arXiv:1612.05949 [astro-ph.HE]C. Amole et al., [PICO Collaboration]. Phys. Rev. Lett. 118(25), 251301 (2017). arXiv:1702.07666 [astro-ph.CO]M.T. Frandsen, F. Kahlhoefer, C. McCabe, S. Sarkar, K. Schmidt-Hoberg, JCAP 1201, 024 (2012). arXiv:1111.0292 [hep-ph]K. Choi, C. Rott, Y. Itow, JCAP 1405, 049 (2014). arXiv:1312.0273 [astro-ph.HE]A. Achterberg et al., [IceCube Collaboration]. Astropart. Phys. 26, 155 (2006). arXiv:astro-ph/0604450R. Abbasi et al. [IceCube Collaboration], Nucl. Instrum. Meth. A 601, 294 (2009) arXiv:0810.4930 [physics.ins-det]M.G. Aartsen et al. [IceCube Collaboration], JINST 12, no. 03, P03012 (2017) arXiv:1612.05093 [astro-ph.IM]R. Abbasi et al., [IceCube Collaboration]. Astropart. Phys. 35, 615 (2012). arXiv:1109.6096 [astro-ph.IM]G.J. Feldman, R.D. Cousins, Phys. Rev. D 57, 3873 (1998). https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevD.57.3873. arXiv:physics/9711021 [physics.data-an]M. Tanabashi et al. [Particle Data Group], Phys. Rev. D 98, no. 3, 030001 (2018)C. Amole et al. [PICO Collaboration], arXiv:1905.12522 [physics.ins-det]C. Amole et al. [PICO Collaboration], Phys. Rev. D 93, no. 5, 052014 (2016) arXiv:1510.07754 [hep-ex]E. Tollerud et al. [ERFA] Computational Science and Discovery, no 8, 1 (2015) https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1021149J.N. Bahcall, R.K. Ulrich, Rev. Mod. Phys. 60, 297 (1988)T. Mumford et al. [SunPy Community] Computational Science and Discovery, no 8, 1 (2015) arXiv:1505.02563 [astro-ph]V. Gluscevic, M.I. Gresham, S.D. McDermott, A.H.G. Peter, K.M. Zurek, JCAP 1512(12), 057 (2015). arXiv:1506.04454 [hep-ph]A.L. Fitzpatrick, W. Haxton, E. Katz, N. Lubbers, Y. Xu, ‘, JCAP 1302, 004 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1088/1475-7516/2013/02/004. arXiv:1203.3542 [hep-ph]A. Ibarra, A. Rappelt, JCAP 1708(08), 039 (2017). arXiv:1703.09168 [hep-ph

Neutrinos below 100 TeV from the southern sky employing refined veto techniques to IceCube data

Many Galactic sources of gamma rays, such as supernova remnants, are expected to produce neutrinos with a typical energy cutoff well below 100 TeV. For the IceCube Neutrino Observatory located at the South Pole, the southern sky, containing the inner part of the Galactic plane and the Galactic Center, is a particularly challenging region at these energies, because of the large background of atmospheric muons. In this paper, we present recent advancements in data selection strategies for track-like muon neutrino events with energies below 100 TeV from the southern sky. The strategies utilize the outer detector regions as veto and features of the signal pattern to reduce the background of atmospheric muons to a level which, for the first time, allows IceCube searching for point-like sources of neutrinos in the southern sky at energies between 100 GeV and several TeV in the muon neutrino charged current channel. No significant clustering of neutrinos above background expectation was observed in four years of data recorded with the completed IceCube detector. Upper limits on the neutrino flux for a number of spectral hypotheses are reported for a list of astrophysical objects in the southern hemisphere