Non-stationary covariance function modelling in 2D least-squares collocation

Standard least-squares collocation (LSC) assumes 2D stationarity and 3D isotropy, and relies on a covariance function to account for spatial dependence in the ob-served data. However, the assumption that the spatial dependence is constant through-out the region of interest may sometimes be violated. Assuming a stationary covariance structure can result in over-smoothing of, e.g., the gravity field in mountains and under-smoothing in great plains. We introduce the kernel convolution method from spatial statistics for non-stationary covariance structures, and demonstrate its advantage fordealing with non-stationarity in geodetic data. We then compared stationary and non-stationary covariance functions in 2D LSC to the empirical example of gravity anomaly interpolation near the Darling Fault, Western Australia, where the field is anisotropic and non-stationary. The results with non-stationary covariance functions are better than standard LSC in terms of formal errors and cross-validation against data not used in the interpolation, demonstrating that the use of non-stationary covariance functions can improve upon standard (stationary) LSC

Ex Ante Impact Assessment of Policies Affecting Land Use, Part A: Analytical Framework

Contemporary policy making calls for scientific support to anticipate the possible consequences of optional policy decisions on sustainable development. This paper presents an analytical framework for ex ante assessment of economic, social, and environmental impacts of policy driven land use changes that can be used as an aid to policy making. The tasks were to (1) link policy scenarios with land use change simulations, (2) link land use change simulations with environmental, social, and economic impacts through indicators, and (3) valuate the impacts in the context of sustainable development. The outcome was a basis for dialogue at the science-policy interface in the process of developing new policies on the European level that impact on land and land use. The analytical approach provides a logical thread for ex ante impact assessment within the context of sustainable development, land use multifunctionality, and land use change and it provides a thorough discussion of achievements and open challenges related to the framework. It concludes with considerations on the potential for using evidence based ex ante assessments in the process of policy development. The paper is complemented by a B-paper providing exemplary results from two applications of the framework: a financial reform scenario of the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union, and a bioenergy policy scenario for the case of Poland (Helming et al. 2011)

High-resolution regional gravity field recovery from Poisson wavelets using heterogeneous observational techniques

2016-2017 > Academic research: refereed > Publication in refereed journal201804_a bcmaVersion of RecordPublishe

Error sources and data limitations for the prediction ofsurface gravity: a case study using benchmarks

Gravity-based heights require gravity values at levelled benchmarks (BMs), whichsometimes have to be predicted from surrounding observations. We use EGM2008 andthe Australian National Gravity Database (ANGD) as examples of model and terrestrialobserved data respectively to predict gravity at Australian national levelling network(ANLN) BMs. The aim is to quantify errors that may propagate into the predicted BMgravity values and then into gravimetric height corrections (HCs). Our results indicatethat an approximate ±1 arc-minute horizontal position error of the BMs causesmaximum errors in EGM2008 BM gravity of ~ 22 mGal (~55 mm in the HC at ~2200 melevation) and ~18 mGal for ANGD BM gravity because the values are not computed atthe true location of the BM. We use RTM (residual terrain modelling) techniques toshow that ~50% of EGM2008 BM gravity error in a moderately mountainous regioncan be accounted for by signal omission. Non-representative sampling of ANGDgravity in this region may cause errors of up to 50 mGals (~120 mm for the Helmertorthometric correction at ~2200 m elevation). For modelled gravity at BMs to beviable, levelling networks need horizontal BM positions accurate to a few metres, whileRTM techniques can be used to reduce signal omission error. Unrepresentative gravitysampling in mountains can be remedied by denser and more representative re-surveys,and/or gravity can be forward modelled into regions of sparser gravity

Frequent CXCR4 tropism of HIV-1 subtype A and CRF02_AG during late-stage disease - indication of an evolving epidemic in West Africa

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>HIV-1 is one of the fastest evolving pathogens, and is distinguished by geographic and genetic variants that have been classified into different subtypes and circulating recombinant forms (CRFs). Early in infection the primary coreceptor is CCR5, but during disease course CXCR4-using HIV-1 populations may emerge. This has been correlated with accelerated disease progression in HIV-1 subtype B. Basic knowledge of HIV-1 coreceptor tropism is important due to the recent introduction of coreceptor antagonists in antiretroviral therapy, and subtype-specific differences regarding how frequently HIV-1 CXCR4-using populations appear in late-stage disease need to be further investigated. To study how frequently CXCR4-using populations appear in late-stage disease among HIV-1 subtype A and CRF02_AG, we evaluated the accuracy of a recombinant virus phenotypic assay for these subtypes, and used it to determine the HIV-1 coreceptor tropism of plasma samples collected during late-stage disease in Guinea-Bissau. We also performed a genotypic analysis and investigated subtype-specific differences in the appearance of CXCR4 tropism late in disease.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We found that the recombinant virus phenotypic assay accurately predicted HIV-1 coreceptor tropism of subtype A and CRF02_AG. Over the study period (1997-2007), we found an increasing and generally high frequency of CXCR4 tropism (86%) in CRF02_AG. By sequence analysis of the V3 region of our samples we developed a novel genotypic rule for predicting CXCR4 tropism in CRF02_AG, based on the combined criteria of the total number of charged amino acids and net charge. This rule had higher sensitivity than previously described genotypic rules and may be useful for development of future genotypic tools for this CRF. Finally, we conducted a literature analysis, combining data of 498 individuals in late-stage disease, and found high amounts of CXCR4 tropism for all major HIV-1 subtypes (60-77%), except for subtype C (15%).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The increase in CXCR4 tropism over time suggests an evolving epidemic of CRF02_AG. The results of the literature analysis demonstrate the need for further studies investigating subtype-specific emergence for CXCR4-tropism; this may be particularly important due to the introduction of CCR5-antagonists in HIV treatment regimens.</p