The livestock-climate-poverty nexus: A discussion paper on ILRI research in relation to climate change

Climate change will have severe impacts in many parts of the tropics and subtropics. Despite the importance of livestock to poor people and the magnitude of the changes that are likely to befall livestock systems, the intersection of climate change and livestock is a relatively neglected research area. Little is known about the interactions of climate and increasing climate variability with other drivers of change in livestock systems and in broader development trends. Evidence is being assembled that the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of household responses may be very large. While opportunities may exist for some households to take advantage of more conducive rangeland and cropping conditions, for example, the changes projected will pose very serious problems for many other households. Furthermore, ruminant livestock themselves have important impacts on climate, through the emission of methane and through the land-use change that may be brought about by livestock keepers. Given that climate change is now being seen as a key development challenge, and that a very large global community is already working on climate-change-related issues, the CGIAR in general, and ILRI in particular, need to consider carefully how the research agenda might be adjusted to respond. While the global environmental change community is very large, ILRI as a small institute can still contribute effectively to the climate change / development debate by focusing on a few key niches, through alliances with carefully chosen collaborators. This discussion paper is an attempt to assemble and summarise relevant information concerning climate change, livestock and development, and to identify what these key niches might be. The report briefly summarises what is known about climate change and its effects on agroecosystems, and summarises the current limits to prediction. It reviews the literature on climate change impacts on livestock and livestock impacts on climate, and thus sets out to answer the question, what do we know? Knowledge and data gaps are then identified, and a synthesis presented in relation to our clients and stakeholders and to alternative providers of knowledge and information. The paper ends by looking at the questions, what do we not know, and what should we do about it, with a discussion of recommendations for ILRI activities in the area, and the strategic alliances needed, some of which already exist

Climate change: do we know how it will affect smallholder livestock farmers?

What is known about the likely impacts of climate change on resource-poor livestock keepers in the developing world? Relatively little, and the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) are working to improve this knowledge. This Brief outlines how a group of scientists at ILRI reviewed some elements of the complex relationship between livestock and climate change in developing countries with a forward-looking approach. The objective was to help set research priorities: to inform the debate as to what research for development organizations such as ILRI could and should be doing in the area of climate change work that could add value to the large amounts of work already being carried out by the Global Change community on cropping systems and natural resources management. Originally designed to guide ILRI’s research on climate change, this work has had a broader impact by informing the investment strategies of several other research-for-development organizations, including donors

The influence of current and future climate-induced risk on the agricultural sector in East and Central Africa: Sensitizing the ASARECA strategic plan to climate change

Rainfed agriculture is and will remain the dominant source of staple food production for the majority of the rural poor in Eastern and Central Africa (ECA). It is clear that larger investments in agriculture by a broad range of stakeholders will be required if this sector is to meet the food security requirements of tomorrow’s Africa. Many factors contribute to the current low levels of investment, but production uncertainty associated with between- and within-season rainfall variability remains a fundamental constraint to many investors who often overestimate the impact of climate induced uncertainty. The climate of Africa is warmer than it was 100 years ago. Model-based predictions of future greenhouse gas-induced climate change for the continent clearly suggest that this warming will continue and, in most scenarios, accelerate. The projections for rainfall are less uniform; large regional differences exist in rainfall variability. However, there is likely to be an increase in annual mean precipitation in East Africa

Climate variability and climate change and their impacts on Kenya’s agricultural sector

Report of the project “Adaptation of Smallholder Agriculture to Climate Change in Kenya”

Farming and the geography of nutrient production for human use: a transdisciplinary analysis

Background: Information about the global structure of agriculture and nutrient production and its diversity is essential to improve present understanding of national food production patterns, agricultural livelihoods, and food chains, and their linkages to land use and their associated ecosystems services. Here we provide a plausible breakdown of global agricultural and nutrient production by farm size, and also study the associations between farm size, agricultural diversity, and nutrient production. This analysis is crucial to design interventions that might be appropriately targeted to promote healthy diets and ecosystems in the face of population growth, urbanisation, and climate change. Methods: We used existing spatially-explicit global datasets to estimate the production levels of 41 major crops, seven livestock, and 14 aquaculture and fish products. From overall production estimates, we estimated the production of vitamin A, vitamin B₁₂, folate, iron, zinc, calcium, calories, and protein. We also estimated the relative contribution of farms of different sizes to the production of different agricultural commodities and associated nutrients, as well as how the diversity of food production based on the number of different products grown per geographic pixel and distribution of products within this pixel (Shannon diversity index [H]) changes with different farm sizes. Findings: Globally, small and medium farms (≤50 ha) produce 51–77% of nearly all commodities and nutrients examined here. However, important regional differences exist. Large farms (>50 ha) dominate production in North America, South America, and Australia and New Zealand. In these regions, large farms contribute between 75% and 100% of all cereal, livestock, and fruit production, and the pattern is similar for other commodity groups. By contrast, small farms (≤20 ha) produce more than 75% of most food commodities in sub-Saharan Africa, southeast Asia, south Asia, and China. In Europe, west Asia and north Africa, and central America, medium-size farms (20–50 ha) also contribute substantially to the production of most food commodities. Very small farms (≤2 ha) are important and have local significance in sub-Saharan Africa, southeast Asia, and south Asia, where they contribute to about 30% of most food commodities. The majority of vegetables (81%), roots and tubers (72%), pulses (67%), fruits (66%), fish and livestock products (60%), and cereals (56%) are produced in diverse landscapes (H>1·5). Similarly, the majority of global micronutrients (53–81%) and protein (57%) are also produced in more diverse agricultural landscapes (H>1·5). By contrast, the majority of sugar (73%) and oil crops (57%) are produced in less diverse ones (H≤1·5), which also account for the majority of global calorie production (56%). The diversity of agricultural and nutrient production diminishes as farm size increases. However, areas of the world with higher agricultural diversity produce more nutrients, irrespective of farm size. Interpretation: Our results show that farm size and diversity of agricultural production vary substantially across regions and are key structural determinants of food and nutrient production that need to be considered in plans to meet social, economic, and environmental targets. At the global level, both small and large farms have key roles in food and nutrition security. Efforts to maintain production diversity as farm sizes increase seem to be necessary to maintain the production of diverse nutrients and viable, multifunctional, sustainable landscapes. Funding: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, CGIAR Research Programs on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security and on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health funded by the CGIAR Fund Council, Daniel and Nina Carasso Foundation, European Union, International Fund for Agricultural Development, Australian Research Council, National Science Foundation, Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, and Joint Programming Initiative on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change—Belmont Forum

Drivers of change in crop–livestock systems and their potential impacts on agro-ecosystems services and human wellbeing to 2030: A study commissioned by the CGIAR Systemwide Livestock Programme

A Study commissioned by the CGIAR Systemwide Livestock Programm