A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of “Test” versus “Treat” Patients Hospitalized with Suspected Influenza in Hong Kong

BACKGROUND: Seasonal and 2009 H1N1 influenza viruses may cause severe diseases and result in excess hospitalization and mortality in the older and younger adults, respectively. Early antiviral treatment may improve clinical outcomes. We examined potential outcomes and costs of test-guided versus empirical treatment in patients hospitalized for suspected influenza in Hong Kong. METHODS: We designed a decision tree to simulate potential outcomes of four management strategies in adults hospitalized for severe respiratory infection suspected of influenza: "immunofluorescence-assay" (IFA) or "polymerase-chain-reaction" (PCR)-guided oseltamivir treatment, "empirical treatment plus PCR" and "empirical treatment alone". Model inputs were derived from literature. The average prevalence (11%) of influenza in 2010-2011 (58% being 2009 H1N1) among cases of respiratory infections was used in the base-case analysis. Primary outcome simulated was cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) expected (ICER) from the Hong Kong healthcare providers' perspective. RESULTS: In base-case analysis, "empirical treatment alone" was shown to be the most cost-effective strategy and dominated the other three options. Sensitivity analyses showed that "PCR-guided treatment" would dominate "empirical treatment alone" when the daily cost of oseltamivir exceeded USD18, or when influenza prevalence was <2.5% and the predominant circulating viruses were not 2009 H1N1. Using USD50,000 as the threshold of willingness-to-pay, "empirical treatment alone" and "PCR-guided treatment" were cost-effective 97% and 3% of time, respectively, in 10,000 Monte-Carlo simulations. CONCLUSIONS: During influenza epidemics, empirical antiviral treatment appears to be a cost-effective strategy in managing patients hospitalized with severe respiratory infection suspected of influenza, from the perspective of healthcare providers in Hong Kong

Outcomes from pandemic influenza A H1N1 infection in recipients of solid-organ transplants: a multicentre cohort study

Background There are few data on the epidemiology and outcomes of influenza infection in recipients of solid-organ transplants. We aimed to establish the outcomes of pandemic influenza A H1N1 and factors leading to severe disease in a cohort of patients who had received transplants. Methods We did a multicentre cohort study of adults and children who had received organ transplants with microbiological confirmation of influenza A infection from April to December, 2009. Centres were identified through the American Society of Transplantation Influenza Collaborative Study Group. Demographics, clinical presentation, treatment, and outcomes were assessed. Severity of disease was measured by admission to hospital and intensive care units (ICUs). The data were analysed with descriptive statistics. Proportions were compared by use of chi(2) tests. We used univariate analysis to identify factors leading to pneumonia, admission to hospital, and admission to an ICU. Multivariate analysis was done by use of a stepwise logistic regression model. We analysed deaths with Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Findings We assessed 237 cases of medically attended influenza A H1N1 reported from 26 transplant centres during the study period. Transplant types included kidney, liver, heart, lung, and others. Both adults (154 patients; median age 47 years) and children (83; 9 years) were assessed. Median time from transplant was 3-6 years. 167 (71%) of 237 patients were admitted to hospital. Data on complications were available for 230 patients; 73 (32%) had pneumonia, 37 (16%) were admitted to ICUs, and ten (4%) died. Antiviral treatment was used in 223 (94%) patients (primarily oseltamivir monotherapy). Seven (8%) patients given antiviral drugs within 48 h of symptom onset were admitted to an ICU compared with 28 (22.4%) given antivirals later (p=0.007). Children who received transplants were less likely to present with pneumonia than adults, but rates of admission to hospital and ICU were similar. Interpretation Influenza A H1N1 caused substantial morbidity in recipients of solid-organ transplants during the 2009-10 pandemic. Starting antiviral therapy early is associated with clinical benefit as measured by need for ICU admission and mechanical ventilation.Molecular basis of virus replication, viral pathogenesis and antiviral strategie