A decision support model simulating the vitamin supply over the year on a farm

The aim of this new project is to develop a prototype of a decision support model simulating the feed and vitamin supply during a year to different groups of animals (calves, heifers, dry cows, cows in early and late lactation) on a farm self-sufficient with feed. The model takes into account that the content of vitamin depends on choice of crops, utilization method, cutting date, conservation method and duration of storage together with traditional optimizing the feed-ing scheme

Self-sufficiency with vitamins and minerals on organic dairy farms

Self-sufficiency of nutrients is a central element in the organic farming principles. In a project involving five private organic dairy farms, we aimed to achieve self-sufficiency in vitamins and minerals at farm level. All the herds are fed 100% organically grown feed, but so far supplements of minerals and vitamins based on inorganic and synthetic products are imported to all farms. The same level and type of supplement was used for the cows all year round, even though all cows were on grass for at least 150 days during the summer period. The average daily intake from the supplement for a lactating cow was 751 mg E vitamin, 111 mg Cu, and 558 mg Zn. The content of vitamin and minerals in the home-grown feeds was modelled taking into account the effect of choice of crops; conservation method; season, plant development and climate conditions at harvest; quality of the silage production, and duration of storage. The modelled contents of vitamins in the main ingredients in the feed ration were verified by measuring the actual vitamin content in the silage at harvest as well as losses during storage. As an example, at one of the farms, where the feed intake was based on 85% grass clover crops during the summer but only 68% during the winter, the home-grown feed could supply the cows with enough vitamin E according to the requirement (800 mg/day) during the summer feeding but not during the winter period. The Cu requirement (10 mg/kg DM) could not be met from home-grown feed during any season. However, supplements of vitamins and minerals secure that requirement was met. The final outcome of the project will result in strategies for achieving self-sufficiency in vitamins and minerals at individual farms through optimization of the choice of forage crops and management of feed production

Solving Dynamic Discrete Choice Models Using Smoothing and Sieve Methods

We propose to combine smoothing, simulations and sieve approximations to solve for either the integrated or expected value function in a general class of dynamic discrete choice (DDC) models. We use importance sampling to approximate the Bellman operators defining the two functions. The random Bellman operators, and therefore also the corresponding solutions, are generally non-smooth which is undesirable. To circumvent this issue, we introduce a smoothed version of the random Bellman operator and solve for the corresponding smoothed value function using sieve methods. We show that one can avoid using sieves by generalizing and adapting the `self-approximating' method of Rust (1997) to our setting. We provide an asymptotic theory for the approximate solutions and show that they converge with root-N-rate, where $N$ is number of Monte Carlo draws, towards Gaussian processes. We examine their performance in practice through a set of numerical experiments and find that both methods perform well with the sieve method being particularly attractive in terms of computational speed and accuracy

A re-examination of the BEST Trial using composite outcomes, including emergency department visits

Objectives: The influence of choice of endpoint on trial size, duration, and interpretation of results was examined in patients with heart failure who were enrolled in BEST (Beta-blocker Evaluation of Survival Trial). Background: The choice of endpoints in heart failure trials has evolved over the past 3 decades. Methods: In the BEST trial, we used Cox regression analysis to examine the effect of bucindolol on the current standard composite of cardiovascular death or heart failure hospitalization (CVD/HFH) compared with the original primary mortality endpoint and the expanded composite that included emergency department (ED) visits. We also undertook an analysis of recurrent events primarily using the Lin, Wei, Ying, and Yang model. Results: Overall, 448 (33%) patients on placebo and 411 (30%) patients on bucindolol died (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.90; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.78 to 1.02; p = 0.11). A total of 730 (54%) patients experienced CVD/HFH on placebo and 624 (46%) on bucindolol (HR: 0.80; 95% CI: 0.72 to 0.89; p < 0.001). Adding ED visits increased these numbers to 768 (57%) and 668 (49%), respectively (HR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.73 to 0.90; p < 0.001). A total of 568 (42%) patients on placebo experienced HFH compared with 476 (35%) patients on bucindolol (HR: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.69 to 0.89; p < 0.001), with a total of 1,333 and 1,124 admissions, respectively. With the same statistical assumptions, using the composite endpoint instead of all-cause mortality would have reduced the trial size by 40% and follow-up duration by 69%. The rate ratio for recurrent events (CVD/HFH) was 0.83 (95% CI: 0.73 to 0.94; p = 0.003). Conclusions: Choice of endpoint has major implications for trial size and duration, as well as interpretation of results. The value of broader composite endpoints and inclusion of recurrent events needs further investigation. (Beta Blocker Evaluation in Survival Trial [BEST]; NCT00000560

Cows fed vitamin-rich feed produce vitamin-rich milk

On five organic dairy farms there was a positive effect of a high vitamin content in the home-grown roughage on the vitamin content of the milk produced. Vitamins and minerals are of crucial importance for the health and performance of the animals, and they also affect the nutritional value of the products. The highest concentrations of pro-vitamin A (in the form of beta-carotene) and vitamin E (alfa-tocopherol) are found in grass, legumes and other green plants, while seeds and whole-crop silage only contain small amounts of vitamins. While the requirements for for fat-soluble vitamins of grazing cattle are normally met via their intake from pasture, the supply of fat-soluble vitamins may decrease to very low amounts when conserved herbage is used instead of pasture. The DARCOF III project EcoVit involved five private organic dairy farms. On these farms the two most important types of roughage were monitored from harvest in 2007 and until the roughage was fed to cattle. Seven times during this period (every six weeks) a sample was collected from each of the two types of roughage and from the milk tank, and analysed for the concentrations of pro-vitamin A (in the form of beta-carotene) and vitamin E (alfa-tocopherol). At the same time the feed intake per cow per day was registered at herd level, including the supplement from a vitamin mixture, if any. This registration enabled cow total daily intake of vitamins from feed and supplements to be calculated. The two most important types of roughage in which the vitamin content was analysed constituted 90-100% of the roughage fed to cattle. For the remaining part of the roughage and the concentrated feed, table values were used for the vitamin content. The vitamin content in the vitamin mixture was assumed to be the guaranteed amount. We found a positive effect of a high vitamin content in the home-grown roughage, and thus ration, on the vitamin content in the produced milk. This article focuses on the vitamin E supply from roughage and its concentration in milk on two of the case study farm – the farms with respectively the highest and the lowest concentration of vitamin E in roughage and milk

Impact of the sea surface temperature forcing on hindcasts of Madden-Julian Oscillation events using the ECMWF model

This paper explores the sensitivity of hindcasts of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) to the use of different sea surface temperture (SST) products as lower boundary conditions in the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric model. Three sets of monthly hindcast experiments are conducted, starting from initial conditions from the ERA interim reanalysis. First, as a reference, the atmosphere is forced by the SST used to produce ERA interim. In the second and third experiments, the SST is switched to the OSTIA (Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea-Ice Analysis) and the AVHRR-only (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) reanalyses, respectively. Tests on the temporal resolution of the SST show that monthly fields are not optimal, while weekly and daily resolutions provide similar MJO scores. When using either OSTIA or AVHRR, the propagation of the MJO is degraded and the resulting scores are lower than in the reference experiment. Further experiments show that this loss of skill cannot be attributed to either the difference in mean state or temporal variability between the SST products. Additional diagnostics show that the phase relationship between either OSTIA or AVHRR SST and the MJO convection is distorted with respect to satellite observations and the ERA interim reanalysis. This distortion is expected to impact the MJO hindcasts, leading to a relative loss of forecast skill. A realistic representation of ocean–atmosphere interactions is thus needed for MJO hindcasts, but not all SST products – though accurate for other purposes – fulfill this requirement

Utilizing a New Graphical Elicitation Technique to Collect Emotional Narratives Describing Disease Trajectories

Elicitation techniques in connection with semi-structured interviews are scantily used, but reported to be beneficial to research. We developed and tested a new visual technique to be utilized in the latter part of semi-structured interviews. It has proved to be feasible and beneficial to use, and it could possibly be used by others. This way of extending the interviews generates more data in a visual form, as well as in a verbal form, by supporting the participants in remembering nearly forgotten parts of their experiences and in expressing emotions associated with those significant experiences. As a contribution to qualitative research, our study showed that the visual data, created by the participants, also contributed to getting the elaborated narratives