Believing in Others

Suppose some person 'A' sets out to accomplish a difficult, long-term goal such as writing a passable Ph.D. thesis. What should you believe about whether A will succeed? The default answer is that you should believe whatever the total accessible evidence concerning A's abilities, circumstances, capacity for self-discipline, and so forth supports. But could it be that what you should believe depends in part on the relationship you have with A? We argue that it does, in the case where A is yourself. The capacity for "grit" involves a kind of epistemic resilience in the face of evidence suggesting that one might fail, and this makes it rational to respond to the relevant evidence differently when you are the agent in question. We then explore whether similar arguments extend to the case of "believing in" our significant others -- our friends, lovers, family members, colleagues, patients, and students

The Homflypt skein module of a connected sum of 3-manifolds

If M is an oriented 3-manifold, let S(M) denote the Homflypt skein module of M. We show that S(M_1 connect sum M_2) is isomorphic to S(M_1) tensor S(M_2) modulo torsion. In fact, we show that S(M_1 connect sum M_2) is isomorphic to S(M_1) tensot S(M_2) if we are working over a certain localized ring. We show the similar result holds for relative skein modules. If M contains a separating 2-sphere, we give conditions under which certain relative skein modules of M vanish over specified localized rings.Comment: Published by Algebraic and Geometric Topology at http://www.maths.warwick.ac.uk/agt/AGTVol1/agt-1-31.abs.htm

Thin-film flow in helically wound rectangular channels with small torsion

Laminar gravity-driven thin-film flow down a helically-wound channel of rectangular cross-section with small torsion in which the fluid depth is small is considered. Neglecting the entrance and exit regions we obtain the steady-state solution that is independent of position along the axis of the channel, so that the flow, which comprises a primary flow in the direction of the axis of the channel and a secondary flow in the cross-sectional plane, depends only on position in the two-dimensional cross-section of the channel. A thin-film approximation yields explicit expressions for the fluid velocity and pressure in terms of the free-surface shape, the latter satisfying a non-linear ordinary differential equation that has a simple exact solution in the special case of a channel of rectangular cross-section. The predictions of the thin-film model are shown to be in good agreement with much more computationally intensive solutions of the small-helix-torsion Navier–Stokes equations. The present work has particular relevance to spiral particle separators used in the mineral-processing industry. The validity of an assumption commonly used in modelling flow in spiral separators, namely that the flow in the outer region of the separator cross-section is described by a free vortex, is shown to depend on the problem parameters

Choosing the lesser of two evils, the better of two goods: Specifying the roles of ventromedial prefrontal cortex and dorsal anterior cingulate in object choice

The ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) and dorsal anterior cingulate cortices (ACd) are considered important for reward-based decision making. However, work distinguishing their individual functional contributions has only begun. One aspect of decision making that has received little attention is that making the right choice often translates to making the better choice. Thus, response choice often occurs in situations where both options are desirable (e.g., choosing between mousse au chocolat or crème caramel cheesecake from a menu) or, alternatively, in situations where both options are undesirable. Moreover, response choice is easier when the reinforcements associated with the objects are far apart, rather than close together, in value. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging to delineate the functional roles of the vmPFC and ACd by investigating these two aspects of decision making: (1) decision form (i.e., choosing between two objects to gain the greater reward or the lesser punishment), and (2) between-object reinforcement distance (i.e., the difference in reinforcements associated with the two objects). Blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) responses within the ACd and vmPFC were both related to decision form but differentially. Whereas ACd showed greater responses when deciding between objects to gain the lesser punishment, vmPFC showed greater responses when deciding between objects to gain the greater reward. Moreover, vmPFC was sensitive to reinforcement expectations associated with both the chosen and the forgone choice. In contrast, BOLD responses within ACd, but not vmPFC, related to between-object reinforcement distance, increasing as the distance between the reinforcements of the two objects decreased. These data are interpreted with reference to models of ACd and vmPFC functioning

Probing anharmonic properties of nuclear surface vibration by heavy-ion fusion reactions

Describing fusion reactions between ^{16}O and ^{154}Dy and, between ^{16}O and ^{144}Sm by the $sd-$ and $sdf-$ interacting boson model, we show that heavy-ion fusion reactions are strongly affected by anharmonic properties of nuclear surface vibrations and nuclear shape, and thus provide a powerful method to study details of nuclear structure and dynamics.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, To be published in the Proceedings of the FUSION 97 Conference, South Durras, Australia, March 1997 (J. Phys. G

A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Utility-Based Quality of Life in Chronic Kidney Disease Treatments

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a common and costly condition to treat. Economic evaluations of health care often incorporate patient preferences for health outcomes using utilities. The objective of this study was to determine pooled utility-based quality of life (the numerical value attached to the strength of an individual's preference for a specific health outcome) by CKD treatment modality. Methods and Findings: We conducted a systematic review, meta-analysis, and meta-regression of peer-reviewed published articles and of PhD dissertations published through 1 December 2010 that reported utility-based quality of life (utility) for adults with late-stage CKD. Studies reporting utilities by proxy (e.g., reported by a patient's doctor or family member) were excluded. In total, 190 studies reporting 326 utilities from over 56,000 patients were analysed. There were 25 utilities from pre-treatment CKD patients, 226 from dialysis patients (haemodialysis, n = 163; peritoneal dialysis, n = 44), 66 from kidney transplant patients, and three from patients treated with non-dialytic conservative care. Using time tradeoff as a referent instrument, kidney transplant recipients had a mean utility of 0.82 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.90). The mean utility was comparable in pre-treatment CKD patients (difference = -0.02; 95% CI: -0.09, 0.04), 0.11 lower in dialysis patients (95% CI: -0.15, -0.08), and 0.2 lower in conservative care patients (95% CI: -0.38, -0.01). Patients treated with automated peritoneal dialysis had a significantly higher mean utility (0.80) than those on continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (0.72; p = 0.02). The mean utility of transplant patients increased over time, from 0.66 in the 1980s to 0.85 in the 2000s, an increase of 0.19 (95% CI: 0.11, 0.26). Utility varied by elicitation instrument, with standard gamble producing the highest estimates, and the SF-6D by Brazier et al., University of Sheffield, producing the lowest estimates. The main limitations of this study were that treatment assignments were not random, that only transplant had longitudinal data available, and that we calculated EuroQol Group EQ-5D scores from SF-36 and SF-12 health survey data, and therefore the algorithms may not reflect EQ-5D scores measured directly. Conclusions: For patients with late-stage CKD, treatment with dialysis is associated with a significant decrement in quality of life compared to treatment with kidney transplantation. These findings provide evidence-based utility estimates to inform economic evaluations of kidney therapies, useful for policy makers and in individual treatment discussions with CKD patients. © 2012 Wyld et al

Bound states of edge dislocations: The quantum dipole problem in two dimensions

We investigate bound state solutions of the 2D Schr\"odinger equation with a dipole potential originating from the elastic effects of a single edge dislocation. The knowledge of these states could be useful for understanding a wide variety of physical systems, including superfluid behavior along dislocations in solid $^4$He. We present a review of the results obtained by previous workers together with an improved variational estimate of the ground state energy. We then numerically solve the eigenvalue problem and calculate the energy spectrum. In our dimensionless units, we find a ground state energy of -0.139, which is lower than any previous estimate. We also make successful contact with the behavior of the energy spectrum as derived from semiclassical considerations.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, submitted to PR

Effect of oil palm sustainability certification on deforestation and fire in Indonesia.

Many major corporations and countries have made commitments to purchase or produce only "sustainable" palm oil, a commodity responsible for substantial tropical forest loss. Sustainability certification is the tool most used to fulfill these procurement policies, and around 20% of global palm oil production was certified by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) in 2017. However, the effect of certification on deforestation in oil palm plantations remains unclear. Here, we use a comprehensive dataset of RSPO-certified and noncertified oil palm plantations (∼188,000 km2) in Indonesia, the leading producer of palm oil, as well as annual remotely sensed metrics of tree cover loss and fire occurrence, to evaluate the impact of certification on deforestation and fire from 2001 to 2015. While forest loss and fire continued after RSPO certification, certified palm oil was associated with reduced deforestation. Certification lowered deforestation by 33% from a counterfactual of 9.8 to 6.6% y-1 Nevertheless, most plantations contained little residual forest when they received certification. As a result, by 2015, certified areas held less than 1% of forests remaining within Indonesian oil palm plantations. Moreover, certification had no causal impact on forest loss in peatlands or active fire detection rates. Broader adoption of certification in forested regions, strict requirements to avoid all peat, and routine monitoring of clearly defined forest cover loss in certified and RSPO member-held plantations appear necessary if the RSPO is to yield conservation and climate benefits from reductions in tropical deforestation

Evidence of Double Phonon Excitations in ^{16}O + ^{208}Pb Reaction

The fusion cross-sections for ^{16}O + ^{208}Pb, measured to high precision, enable the extraction of the distribution of fusion barriers. This shows a structure markedly different from the single-barrier which might be expected for fusion of two doubly-closed shell nuclei. The results of exact coupled channel calculations performed to understand the observations are presented. These calculations indicate that coupling to a double octupole phonon excited state in ^{208}Pb is necessary to explain the experimental barrier distributions.Comment: 6 pages, 2 figures, To be published in the Proceedings of the FUSION 97 Conference, South Durras, Australia, March 1997 (J. Phys. G