Supply Control or Social Control? Coca, Eradication and Development in the Andes

For over two decades the US has funded repressive forced coca eradication in Peru, Colombia and Bolivia to reduce the illegal cocaine trade. These policies have never met their stated goals and have generated violence and poverty. In 2006 Bolivia definitively broke with the US anti-narcotics model, replacing the militarized eradication of coca crops with a community-based coca control strategy. The program substantially reduced the coca crop while providing subsistence and citizenship for farmers and respecting human rights. This article outlines the elements of the Bolivian initiative that ensure its functioning and considers to what extent they can be translated to other contexts. More broadly this paper draws attention to the fundamental inability of supply side control initiatives to slow the illegal drug trade, which is driven by continuing demand and exorbitant profits

Land use regression modelling of community noise in São Paulo, Brazil

Noise pollution has negative health consequences, which becomes increasingly relevant with rapid urbanization. In low- and middle-income countries research on health effects of noise is hampered by scarce exposure data and noise maps. In this study, we developed land use regression (LUR) models to assess spatial variability of community noise in the Western Region of Sao Paulo, Brazil.We measured outdoor noise levels continuously at 42 homes once or twice during one week in the summer and the winter season. These measurements were integrated with various geographic information system variables to develop LUR models for predicting average A-weighted (dB(A)) day-evening-night equivalent sound levels (Lden) and night sound levels (Lnight). A supervised mixed linear regression analysis was conducted to test potential noise predictors for various buffer sizes and distances between home and noise source.Noise exposure levels in the study area were high with a site average Lden of 69.3 dB(A) ranging from 60.3 to 82.3 dB(A), and a site average Lnight of 59.9 dB(A) ranging from 50.7 to 76.6 dB(A). LUR models had a good fit with a R(2) of 0.56 for Lden and 0.63 for Lnight in a leave-one-site-out cross validation. Main predictors of noise were the inverse distance to medium roads, count of educational facilities within a 400 m buffer, mean Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) within a 100 m buffer, residential areas within a 50 m (Lden) or 25 m (Lnight) buffer and slum areas within a 400 m buffer. Our study suggests that LUR modelling with geographic predictor data is a promising and efficient approach for noise exposure assessment in low- and middle-income countries, where noise maps are not available

Forecasting the Early Impact of COVID-19 on Physician Supply in EU Countries

Background Many countries faced health workforce challenges even before the pandemic, such as impending retirements, negative population growth, or sub-optimal allocation of resources across health sectors. Current quantitative models are often of limited use, either because they require extensive individual-level data to be properly calibrated, or (in the absence of such data) because they are too simplistic to capture important demographic changes or disruptive epidemiological shocks such as the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Method We propose a population-dynamic and stock-flow-consistent approach to physician supply forecasting that is complex enough to account for dynamically changing behaviour, while requiring only publicly available time-series data for full calibration. We demonstrate the utility of this model by applying it to 21 European countries to forecast the supply of generalist and specialist physicians to 2040, and the impact of increased health care utilisation due to Covid on this supply. Results Compared with the workforce needed to maintain physician density at 2019 levels, we find that in many countries there is indeed a significant trend towards decreasing generalist density at the expense of increasing specialist density. The trends for specialists are exacerbated by expectations of negative population growth in many Southern and Eastern European countries. Compared to the expected demographic changes in the population and the health workforce, we expect a limited impact of Covid on these trends, even under conservative modelling assumptions. Finally, we generalise the approach to a multiprofessional, multi-regional and multi-sectoral model for Austria, where we find an additional suboptimal distribution in the supply of contracted versus non-contracted (private) physicians. Conclusion It is therefore vital to develop tools for decision-makers to influence the allocation and supply of doctors across specialties and sectors to address these imbalances

Land use regression modelling of NO2 in São Paulo, Brazil

BACKGROUND: Air pollution is a major global public health problem. The situation is most severe in low- and middle-income countries, where pollution control measures and monitoring systems are largely lacking. Data to quantify the exposure to air pollution in low-income settings are scarce. METHODS: In this study, land use regression models (LUR) were developed to predict the outdoor nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentration in the study area of the Western Region Birth Cohort in Sao Paulo. NO2 measurements were performed for one week in winter and summer at eighty locations. Additionally, weekly measurements at one regional background location were performed over a full one-year period to create an annual prediction. RESULTS: Three LUR models were developed (annual, summer, winter) by using a supervised stepwise linear regression method. The winter, summer and annual models explained 52 %, 75 % and 66 % of the variance (R(2)) respectively. Cross-holdout validation tests suggest robust models. NO2 levels ranged from 43.2 mug/m(3) to 93.4 mug/m(3) in the winter and between 28.1 mug/m(3) and 72.8 mug/m(3) in summer. Based on our annual prediction, about 67 % of the population living in the study area is exposed to NO2 values over the WHO suggested annual guideline of 40 mug/m(3) annual average. CONCLUSION: In this study we were able to develop robust models to predict NO2 residential exposure. We could show that average measures, and therefore the predictions of NO2, in such a complex urban area are substantially high and that a major variability within the area and especially within the season is present. These findings also suggest that in general a high proportion of the population is exposed to high NO2 levels

Similar NF-κB Gene Signatures in TNF-α Treated Human Endothelial Cells and Breast Tumor Biopsies

BACKGROUND: Endothelial dysfunction has been implicated in the pathogenesis of diverse pathologies ranging from vascular and immune diseases to cancer. TNF-α is one of the mediators of endothelial dysfunction through the activation of transcription factors, including NF-κB. While HUVEC (macrovascular cells) have been largely used in the past, here, we documented an NF-κB gene signature in TNFα-stimulated microvascular endothelial cells HMEC often used in tumor angiogenesis studies. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We measured mRNA expression of 55 NF-κB related genes using quantitative RT-PCR in HUVEC and HMEC. Our study identified twenty genes markedly up-regulated in response to TNFα, including adhesion molecules, cytokines, chemokines, and apoptosis regulators, some of them being identified as TNF-α-inducible genes for the first time in endothelial cells (two apoptosis regulators, TNFAIP3 and TNFRSF10B/Trail R2 (DR5), the chemokines GM-CSF/CSF2 and MCF/CSF1, and CD40 and TNF-α itself, as well as NF-κB components (RELB, NFKB1 or 50/p105 and NFKB2 or p52/p100). For eight genes, the fold induction was much higher in HMEC, as compared to HUVEC. Most importantly, our study described for the first time a connection between NF-κB activation and the induction of most, if not all, of these genes in HMEC as evaluated by pharmacological inhibition and RelA expression knock-down by RNA interference. Moreover, since TNF-α is highly expressed in tumors, we further applied the NF-κB gene signature documented in TNFα-stimulated endothelial cells to human breast tumors. We found a significant positive correlation between TNF and the majority (85 %) of the identified endothelial TNF-induced genes in a well-defined series of 96 (48 ERα positive and 48 ERα negative) breast tumors. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Taken together these data suggest the potential use of this NF-κB gene signature in analyzing the role of TNF-α in the endothelial dysfunction, as well as in breast tumors independently of the presence of ERα

Genome-Wide Association Analysis of Soluble ICAM-1 Concentration Reveals Novel Associations at the NFKBIK, PNPLA3, RELA, and SH2B3 Loci

Soluble ICAM-1 (sICAM-1) is an endothelium-derived inflammatory marker that has been associated with diverse conditions such as myocardial infarction, diabetes, stroke, and malaria. Despite evidence for a heritable component to sICAM-1 levels, few genetic loci have been identified so far. To comprehensively address this issue, we performed a genome-wide association analysis of sICAM-1 concentration in 22,435 apparently healthy women from the Women's Genome Health Study. While our results confirm the previously reported associations at the ABO and ICAM1 loci, four novel associations were identified in the vicinity of NFKBIK (rs3136642, P = 5.4×10−9), PNPLA3 (rs738409, P = 5.8×10−9), RELA (rs1049728, P = 2.7×10−16), and SH2B3 (rs3184504, P = 2.9×10−17). Two loci, NFKBIB and RELA, are involved in NFKB signaling pathway; PNPLA3 is known for its association with fatty liver disease; and SH3B2 has been associated with a multitude of traits and disease including myocardial infarction. These associations provide insights into the genetic regulation of sICAM-1 levels and implicate these loci in the regulation of endothelial function