Pengukuran Probabilitas Kebangkrutan Obligasi Korporasi Dengan Suku Bunga Vasicek Model Merton (Studi Kasus Obligasi PT Bank Lampung, Tbk)

Bond is one of financial instrument that have lower investment risk than stock. One of investment risk is credit risk. Its refers to the risk due to unexpected changes in the credit quality of a counterparty or issuer on maturity date. There are two ways in the modelling of credit risk, structural model and reduced models. The structural model introduced by Black-Scholes (1973) and Merton (1974). On the Merton model assume that default occurs when the firm can not pay the coupon or face value at the maturity date. The interest rate on this model asssumed following Vasicek rate. An empirical study using corporate bond of PT Bank Lampung, Tbk with 300 billion face value. Value of Probability of Default 0,0000007910811% provethat PT Bank Lampung still can full their obigation at November 2012

Foreign trade and regional inequality: The case of the Russian federation

An impact of foreign trade on national inequality levels is one of the most discussed topics both by public, politicians and academics. This paper contributes to this discussion by focusing on the role of foreign trade in the Russian Federation during its rapid economic transformation in 1990-2010. During this period, the trade-led growth model has helped to raise country-average levels of income. But simultaneously, it seemingly triggered greater inequality in income appropriation between different social groups. Looking into causality between foreign trade and this observed income disparity from the regional perspective will help us to understand the poverty problem associated with income inequality better and enhance the effectiveness of policies of the Russian government targeting income re-distribution. In particular, this research aims to answer a question whether during 1990's-2000's increasing openness to foreign trade was pro-poor on the regional level or not. Another point of interest is whether the distributional impact of growing foreign trade on incomes in Russian regions had been positive or negative. Several hypotheses for the Russian Federation are tested in the paper. First, higher openness to foreign trade improved income distribution in the Russian regions. Second, globalization of regions as a result of a more active foreign trade benefited individuals in the middle-income decile. This follows an idea that trade liberalization cuts living costs and raises living standards. Third, regions with larger rural population will tend to have more uneven income distribution. This follows from the neo-classical assumption that in rural areas a poverty burden tends to be larger. Active involvement in the trade of agricultural products might improve income distribution in such regions. Additionally, the share of dependent population among households must affect poverty headcount or the depth of poverty as previous studies on poverty determinants naturally suggested. © 2018 Economy of Region. All rights reserved.This research was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR) No17-02-00688 Transformation of Russian Foreign Economic Policy in a Changing Geopolitics

Tajik labor migrants and their international money transfers

During the four years since 2006, Tajikistan, еhe former Soviet republic, has been the world leader in receiving remittances as part of the GDP. However, despite the fact that over time there is growing interest due to the migration and remittances, few researchers pay attention to this region. In this paper, we use the results of the survey of families conducted in two different years to assess income of the families in Tajikistan and international labor migration of the Tajiks, and examine the relationship between income of the families in Tajikistan, the poorest of the former Soviet republics, and the remittances received from the international labor migrants, as well as the possibility of migration growth. No correlation was found between the level of family income and the amount of money sent from abroad, raising concerns about the altruistic models of the relationship between migration and remittances. Moreover, it also found that households with higher incomes are more able to supply workers, which shows that international labor migration from Tajikistan may not contribute to the Tajik migration of poor

POST-SOVIET PERIOD CHANGES IN RESOURCE UTILIZATION AND THEIR IMPACT ON POPULATION DYNAMICS IN CHUKOTKA AUTONOMOUS OKRUG (RUSSIA)

This study examines changes that have occurred in the resource utilization sector and the impact of these changes on population dynamics in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug (Russia) during the post-Soviet period. This paper discuss topics of population-dynamics-related differences that have emerged in the region and impacts of these differences on the use of natural resources and the ethnic composition of the population. Through this study, it was shown that changes have tended to be small in local areas where indigenous peoples who have engaged in traditional natural resource use for a large proportion of the population, while changes have been relatively large in areas where the proportion of non-indigenous people is high and the mining industry has developed

POST-SOVIET PERIOD CHANGES IN RESOURCE UTILIZATION AND THEIR IMPACT ON POPULATION DYNAMICS IN CHUKOTKA AUTONOMOUS OKRUG (RUSSIA)

This study examines changes that have occurred in the resource utilization sector and the impact of these changes on population dynamics in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug (Russia) during the post-Soviet period. This paper discuss topics of population-dynamics-related differences that have emerged in the region and impacts of these differences on the use of natural resources and the ethnic composition of the population. Through this study, it was shown that changes have tended to be small in local areas where indigenous peoples who have engaged in traditional natural resource use for a large proportion of the population, while changes have been relatively large in areas where the proportion of non-indigenous people is high and the mining industry has developed

Inter-regional Population Migration in Russia: Using an Origin-to-Destination Matrix

This study examines regional economic conditions and their effects on inter-regional population redistribution patterns in Russia. After reviewing striking changes in population flows before and after the collapse of the former Soviet Union, an application of the gravity model to population migration in Russia in 2003 is presented using a newly obtained inter-regional in- and out-migration flow matrix supplied by Rosstat (formerly Goskomstat). Gross migration patterns since the year 2000, when large transformational population flows ceased, have not been investigated so far in the existing literature. The analysis conducted focuses on geographical factors, which have been basically omitted in existing literature on migration patterns in post-Soviet Russia, and the attractiveness of Moscow and surrounding regions and resource-mining areas is clearly presented.