78 research outputs found
Outflow Dynamics in Modeling Oligopoly Markets: The Case of the Mobile Telecommunications Market in Poland
In this paper we introduce two models of opinion dynamics in oligopoly
markets and apply them to a situation, where a new entrant challenges two
incumbents of the same size. The models differ in the way the two forces
influencing consumer choice -- (local) social interactions and (global)
advertising -- interact. We study the general behavior of the models using the
Mean Field Approach and Monte Carlo simulations and calibrate the models to
data from the Polish telecommunications market. For one of the models
criticality is observed -- below a certain critical level of advertising the
market approaches a lock-in situation, where one market leader dominates the
market and all other brands disappear. Interestingly, for both models the best
fits to real data are obtained for conformity level . This
agrees very well with the conformity level found by Solomon Asch in his famous
social experiment
Chaotic, staggered and polarized dynamics in opinion forming: the contrarian effect
We revisit the no tie breaking 2-state Galam contrarian model of opinion
dynamics for update groups of size 3. While the initial model assumes a
constant density of contrarians a for both opinions, it now depends for each
opinion on its global support. Proportionate contrarians are thus found to
indeed preserve the former case main results. However, restricting the
contrarian behavior to only the current collective majority, makes the dynamics
more complex with novel features. For a density a<a_c=1/9 of one-sided
contrarians, a chaotic basin is found in the fifty-fifty region separated from
two majority-minority point attractors, one on each side. For 1/9<a< 0.301 only
the chaotic basin survives. In the range a>0.301 the chaotic basin disappears
and the majority starts to alternate between the two opinions with a staggered
flow towards two point attractors. We then study the effect of both, decoupling
the local update time sequence from the contrarian behavior activation, and a
smoothing of the majority rule. A status quo driven bias for contrarian
activation is also considered. Introduction of unsettled agents driven in the
debate on a contrarian basis is shown to only shrink the chaotic basin. The
model may shed light to recent apparent contradictory elections with on the one
hand very tied results like in US in 2000 and in Germany in 2002 and 2005, and
on the other hand, a huge majority like in France in 2002.Comment: 17 pages, 10 figure
Phase transition in the Sznajd model with independence
We propose a model of opinion dynamics which describes two major types of
social influence -- conformity and independence. Conformity in our model is
described by the so called outflow dynamics (known as Sznajd model). According
to sociologists' suggestions, we introduce also a second type of social
influence, known in social psychology as independence. Various social
experiments have shown that the level of conformity depends on the society. We
introduce this level as a parameter of the model and show that there is a
continuous phase transition between conformity and independence
Diffusing opinions in bounded confidence processes
We study the effects of diffusing opinions on the Deffuant et al. model for
continuous opinion dynamics. Individuals are given the opportunity to change
their opinion, with a given probability, to a randomly selected opinion inside
an interval centered around the present opinion. We show that diffusion induces
an order-disorder transition. In the disordered state the opinion distribution
tends to be uniform, while for the ordered state a set of well defined opinion
clusters are formed, although with some opinion spread inside them. If the
diffusion jumps are not large, clusters coalesce, so that weak diffusion favors
opinion consensus. A master equation for the process described above is
presented. We find that the master equation and the Monte-Carlo simulations do
not always agree due to finite-size induced fluctuations. Using a linear
stability analysis we can derive approximate conditions for the transition
between opinion clusters and the disordered state. The linear stability
analysis is compared with Monte Carlo simulations. Novel interesting phenomena
are analyzed
A Biased Review of Sociophysics
Various aspects of recent sociophysics research are shortly reviewed:
Schelling model as an example for lack of interdisciplinary cooperation,
opinion dynamics, combat, and citation statistics as an example for strong
interdisciplinarity.Comment: 16 pages for J. Stat. Phys. including 2 figures and numerous
reference
Tactical Voting in Plurality Elections
How often will elections end in landslides? What is the probability for a
head-to-head race? Analyzing ballot results from several large countries rather
anomalous and yet unexplained distributions have been observed. We identify
tactical voting as the driving ingredient for the anomalies and introduce a
model to study its effect on plurality elections, characterized by the relative
strength of the feedback from polls and the pairwise interaction between
individuals in the society. With this model it becomes possible to explain the
polarization of votes between two candidates, understand the small margin of
victories frequently observed for different elections, and analyze the polls'
impact in American, Canadian, and Brazilian ballots. Moreover, the model
reproduces, quantitatively, the distribution of votes obtained in the Brazilian
mayor elections with two, three, and four candidates.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figure
Brownian markets
Financial market dynamics is rigorously studied via the exact generalized
Langevin equation. Assuming market Brownian self-similarity, the market return
rate memory and autocorrelation functions are derived, which exhibit an
oscillatory-decaying behavior with a long-time tail, similar to empirical
observations. Individual stocks are also described via the generalized Langevin
equation. They are classified by their relation to the market memory as heavy,
neutral and light stocks, possessing different kinds of autocorrelation
functions
Opinion dynamics: models, extensions and external effects
Recently, social phenomena have received a lot of attention not only from
social scientists, but also from physicists, mathematicians and computer
scientists, in the emerging interdisciplinary field of complex system science.
Opinion dynamics is one of the processes studied, since opinions are the
drivers of human behaviour, and play a crucial role in many global challenges
that our complex world and societies are facing: global financial crises,
global pandemics, growth of cities, urbanisation and migration patterns, and
last but not least important, climate change and environmental sustainability
and protection. Opinion formation is a complex process affected by the
interplay of different elements, including the individual predisposition, the
influence of positive and negative peer interaction (social networks playing a
crucial role in this respect), the information each individual is exposed to,
and many others. Several models inspired from those in use in physics have been
developed to encompass many of these elements, and to allow for the
identification of the mechanisms involved in the opinion formation process and
the understanding of their role, with the practical aim of simulating opinion
formation and spreading under various conditions. These modelling schemes range
from binary simple models such as the voter model, to multi-dimensional
continuous approaches. Here, we provide a review of recent methods, focusing on
models employing both peer interaction and external information, and
emphasising the role that less studied mechanisms, such as disagreement, has in
driving the opinion dynamics. [...]Comment: 42 pages, 6 figure
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