Assessing historical realibility of the agent-based model of the global energy system

This study looks at the historical reliability of the agent-based model of the global energy system. We present a mathematical framework for the agent-based model calibration and sensitivity analysis based on historical observations. Simulation consistency with the historical record is measured as a distance between two vectors of data points and inference on parameter values is done from the probability distribution of this stochastic estimate. Proposed methodology is applied to the model of the global energy system. Some model properties and limitations followed from calibration results are discussed

Climate policy and ancillary benefits : a survey and integration into the modelling of international negotiations on climate change

Currently informal and formal international negotiations on climate change take place in an intensive way since the Kyoto Protocol expires already in 2012. A post-Kyoto regulation to combat global warming is not yet stipulated. Due to rapidly increasing greenhouse gas emission levels, industrialized countries urge major polluters from the developing world like China and India to participate in a future agreement. Whether these developing countries will do so, depends on the prevailing incentives to participate in international climate protection efforts. This paper identifies ancillary benefits of climate policy to provide important incentives to attend a new international protocol and to positively affect the likelihood of accomplishing a post-Kyoto agreement which includes commitments of developing countries

Economic valuation of GHG emission reduction

Climate change due to greenhouse gas emissions has been at the forefront of current research efforts in the past decade. The aim of these efforts was defined at the earth summit in Rio de Janeiro as achieving “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climatic system”. With on-going demographic and economic growth, stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions requires firm commitment from all countries to mitigate their emission increase often at the expense of economic growth. However, the economic and social costs of mitigating climate change are, for most countries, less than the costs of adverse impacts associated with the predicted change in climate patterns. This paper evaluates the current and future contribution of Lebanon to global greenhouse gas emissions. Mitigation options with positive or minor economic impacts are investigated. Attainable levels of emission reduction are first estimated. An economic valuation of mitigation measures associated with these levels is then performed. Reasonable emission reductions at negative costs are found to be feasible due to existing inefficiencies in the energy and industry sectors

Sea level adaptation decisions under uncertainty

Sea level rise has serious consequences for harbor infrastructure, storm drains and sewer systems, and many other issues. Adapting to sea level rise requires comparing different possible adaptation strategies, comparing the cost of different actions (including no action), and assessing where and at what point in time the chosen strategy should be implemented. All these decisions must be made under considerable uncertainty—in the amount of sea level rise, in the cost and prioritization of adaptation actions, and in the implications of no action. Here we develop two illustrative examples: for Bergen on Norway's west coast and for Esbjerg on the west coast of Denmark, to highlight how technical efforts to understand and quantify uncertainties in hydrologic projections can be coupled with concrete decision-problems framed by the needs of the end-users using statistical formulations. Different components of uncertainty are visualized. We demonstrate the value of uncertainties and show for example that failing to take uncertainty into account can result in the median-projected damage costs being an order of magnitude smaller