Effect of variable transmission rate on the dynamics of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The cause of the high HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa is incompletely understood, with heterosexual penile-vaginal transmission proposed as the main mechanism. Heterosexual HIV transmission has been estimated to have a very low probability; but effects of cofactors that vary in space and time may substantially alter this pattern.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>To test the effect of individual variation in the HIV infectiousness generated by co-infection, we developed and analyzed a mathematical sexual network model that simulates the behavioral components of a population from Malawi, as well as the dynamics of HIV and the co-infection effect caused by other infectious diseases, including herpes simplex virus type-2, gonorrhea, syphilis and malaria.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The analysis shows that without the amplification effect caused by co-infection, no epidemic is generated, and HIV prevalence decreases to extinction. But the model indicates that an epidemic can be generated by the amplification effect on HIV transmission caused by co-infection.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The simulated sexual network demonstrated that a single value for HIV infectivity fails to describe the dynamics of the epidemic. Regardless of the low probability of heterosexual transmission per sexual contact, the inclusion of individual variation generated by transient but repeated increases in HIV viral load associated with co-infections may provide a biological basis for the accelerated spread of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. Moreover, our work raises the possibility that the natural history of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa cannot be fully understood if individual variation in infectiousness is neglected.</p

Plant-made vaccines in support of the Millennium Development Goals

Vaccines are one of the most successful public health achievements of the last century. Systematic immunisation programs have reduced the burden of infectious diseases on a global scale. However, there are limitations to the current technology, which often requires costly infrastructure and long lead times for production. Furthermore, the requirement to keep vaccines within the cold-chain throughout manufacture, transport and storage is often impractical and prohibitively expensive in developing countries—the very regions where vaccines are most needed. In contrast, plant-made vaccines (PMVs) can be produced at a lower cost using basic greenhouse agricultural methods, and do not need to be kept within such narrow temperature ranges. This increases the feasibility of developing countries producing vaccines locally at a small-scale to target the specific needs of the region. Additionally, the ability of plant-production technologies to rapidly produce large quantities of strain-specific vaccine demonstrates their potential use in combating pandemics. PMVs are a proven technology that has the potential to play an important role in increasing global health, both in the context of the 2015 Millennium Development Goals and beyond

Differences between seven measures of self-reported numbers of clients of female sex workers in southern India: implications for individual- and population-level analysis.

Quantifying sexual activity of sub-populations with high-risk sexual behaviour is important in understanding HIV epidemiology. This study examined inconsistency of seven outcomes measuring self-reported clients per month (CPM) of female sex workers (FSWs) in southern India and implications for individual/population-level analysis. Multivariate negative binomial regression was used to compare key social/environmental factors associated with each outcome. A transmission dynamics model was used to assess the impact of differences between outcomes on population-level FSW/client HIV prevalence. Outcomes based on 'clients per last working day' produced lower estimates than those based on 'clients per typical day'. Although the outcomes were strongly correlated, their averages differed by approximately two-fold (range 39.0-79.1 CPM). The CPM measure chosen did not greatly influence standard epidemiological 'risk factor' analysis. Differences across outcomes influenced HIV prevalence predictions. Due to this uncertainty, we recommend basing population-based estimates on the range of outcomes, particularly when assessing the impact of interventions

FMRI shows multiple somatotopic digit representations in human primary somatosensory cortex

Using electrical finger nerve stimulation in normal human subjects, fMRI detected separate representations for all 5 fingers in the primary somatosensory cortex. Responses were located in the posterior wall of the deep central sulcus (most likely corresponding to Brodmann Area (BA) 3b), and the anterior (BA 1) or posterior crown of the postcentral gyrus (BA 2) with rare activations in BA 3a and 4. In BA 3b we found a regular somatotopic mediolateral digit arrangement for fingers 5 to 1 with a mean Euclidean distance of 16 mm between fingers 1 and 5. In contrast BA 1/2 showed a greater number of adjacent activation foci with significantly more overlap and partly even reversed ordering of neighbouring fingers