MARKETING AND CROP INSURANCE COMBINED TO MANAGE RISK ON A CASS COUNTY REPRESENTATIVE FARM

This study analyzed the effects that the use of crop insurance products and marketing alternatives had on the gross revenue per acre for an individual farm in Cass County. Crop insurance products and marketing strategies were analyzed individually to determine if they were effective in minimizing down side risk, and combined to determine if integration created synergies. A whole farm scenario analysis was run that included integrated strategies that implemented the same insurance coverage and marketing alternatives for each crop. Several general conclusions can be drawn for situations similar to the representative farm. When analyzed at the individual crop level, the use of crop insurance at the 65 percent level minimizes down side risk in wheat and corn, but not significantly in soybeans. Marketing alternatives generally increase the up side potential of gross revenue per acre, while doing little to minimize the down side risk. The integration of crop insurance products and marketing alternatives create a synergy at the lower levels of value at risk, where the down side risk is located. However, the use of integrated strategies does not increase the chances of achieving a cash flow breakeven gross revenue per acre over the base strategy, which did not include insurance or marketing alternatives. The breakeven level is not reached until the 70 percent level, which means that 7 out of 10 years, the farm will not cash flow. Output from the Bullock and AgRisk models are similar. This study may be used as a guide for producers and analysts in studying risk management strategies. To assist in the individual decision making process, further study will need to be done with yield data and budgets for the individual farm.risk, management, strategy, yield, price, insurance, market, Risk and Uncertainty,

Psychological stress reactivity and future health and disease outcomes: A systematic review of prospective evidence

Background Acute psychological stress activates the sympatho-adrenal medullary (SAM) system and hypothalamo-pituitary adrenal (HPA) axis. The relevance of this stress reactivity to long-term health and disease outcomes is of great importance. We examined prospective studies in apparently healthy adults to test the hypothesis that the magnitude of the response to acute psychological stress in healthy adults is related to future health and disease outcomes. Methods We searched Medline Complete, PsycINFO, CINAHL Complete and Embase up to 15 Aug 2019. Included studies were peer-reviewed, English-language, prospective studies in apparently healthy adults. The exposure was acute psychological stress reactivity (SAM system or HPA axis) at baseline. The outcome was any health or disease outcome at follow-up after ≥ 1 year. Results We identified 1,719 papers through database searching and 1 additional paper through other sources. Forty-seven papers met our criteria including 32,866 participants (range 30 – 4100) with 1- 23 years of follow-up. Overall, one third (32%; 83/263) of all reported findings were significant and two thirds (68%; 180/263) were null. With regard to the significant findings, both exaggerated (i.e. high) and blunted (i.e. low) stress reactivity of both the SAM system and the HPA axis at baseline were related to health and disease outcomes at follow-up. Exaggerated stress reactivity at baseline predicted an increase in risk factors for cardiovascular disease and decreased telomere length at follow-up. In contrast, blunted stress reactivity predicted future increased adiposity and obesity, more depression, anxiety and PTSD symptoms, greater illness frequency, musculoskeletal pain and regulatory T-Cell percentage, poorer cognitive ability, poorer self-reported health and physical disability and lower bone mass. Conclusion Exaggerated and blunted SAM system and HPA axis stress reactivity predicted distinct physical and mental health and disease outcomes over time. Results from prospective studies consistently indicate stress reactivity as a predictor for future health and disease outcomes. Dysregulation of stress reactivity may represent a mechanism by which psychological stress contributes to the development of future health and disease outcomes

Evaluation of community level interventions to address social and structural determinants of health: a cluster randomised controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In London and the rest of the UK, diseases associated with poor diet, inadequate physical activity and mental illness account for a large proportion of area based health inequality. There is a lack of evidence on interventions promoting healthier behaviours especially in marginalised populations, at a structural or ecological level and utilising a community development approach.</p> <p>The Well London project financed by the Big Lottery 'Wellbeing' Fund and implemented by a consortium of London based agencies led by the Greater London Authority and the London Health Commission is implementing a set of complex interventions across 20 deprived areas of London. The interventions focus on healthy eating, healthy physical activity and mental health and wellbeing and are designed and executed with community participation complementing existing facilities and services.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>The programme will be evaluated through a cluster randomised controlled trial. Forty areas across London were chosen based on deprivation scores. Areas were characterised by high proportion of Black and Minority Ethnic residents, worklessness, ill-health and poor physical environments. Twenty areas were randomly assigned to the intervention arm of Well London project and twenty 'matched' areas assigned as controls. Measures of physical activity, diet and mental health are collected at start and end of the project and compared to assess impact.</p> <p>The quantitative element will be complemented by a longitudinal qualitative study elucidating pathways of influence between intervention activities and health outcomes. A related element of the study investigates the health-related aspects of the structural and ecological characteristics of the project areas. The project 'process' will also be evaluated.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The size of the project and the fact that the interventions are 'complex' in the sense that firstly, there are a number of interacting components with a wide range of groups and organisational levels targeted by the intervention, and secondly, a degree of flexibility or tailoring of the intervention, makes this trial potentially very useful in providing evidence of the types of activities that can be used to address chronic health problems in communities suffering from multiple deprivation.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN68175121</p

The cortisol awakening response predicts same morning executive function: results from a 50-day case study

A relationship between individual differences in trait estimates of the cortisol-awakening response (CAR) and indices of executive function (EF) has been reported. However, it is difficult to determine causality from such studies. The aim of the present study was to capitalise upon state variation in both variables to seek stronger support for causality by examining daily co-variation. A 50 days researcher–participant case study was employed, ensuring careful adherence to the sampling protocol. A 24-year-old healthy male collected saliva samples and completed an attention-switching index of EF on the morning of each study day. Subsidiary control measures included wake time, sleep duration, morning fatigue, and amount of prior day exercise and alcohol consumption. As the CAR preceded daily measurement of EF, we hypothesised that, over time, a greater than average CAR would predict better than average EF. This was confirmed by mixed regression modelling of variation in cortisol concentrations, which indicated that the greater the increase in cortisol concentrations from 0 to 30 min post-awakening (CAR) the better was subsequent EF performance at 45 min post-awakening (t = 2.29, p = 0.024). This effect was independent of all potential confounding measures. Results are discussed in terms of implications for the understanding of the relationship between the CAR and the cognitive function, and the previously suggested role of the CAR in “boosting” an individual’s performance for the day ahead

Designing citizen science tools for learning: lessons learnt from the iterative development of nQuire

This paper reports on a 4-year research and development case study about the design of citizen science tools for inquiry learning. It details the process of iterative pedagogy-led design and evaluation of the nQuire toolkit, a set of web-based and mobile tools scaffolding the creation of online citizen science investigations. The design involved an expert review of inquiry learning and citizen science, combined with user experience studies involving more than 200 users. These have informed a concept that we have termed ‘citizen inquiry’, which engages members of the public alongside scientists in setting up, running, managing or contributing to citizen science projects with a main aim of learning about the scientific method through doing science by interaction with others. A design-based research (DBR) methodology was adopted for the iterative design and evaluation of citizen science tools. DBR was focused on the refinement of a central concept, ‘citizen inquiry’, by exploring how it can be instantiated in educational technologies and interventions. The empirical evaluation and iteration of technologies involved three design experiments with end users, user interviews, and insights from pedagogy and user experience experts. Evidence from the iterative development of nQuire led to the production of a set of interaction design principles that aim to guide the development of online, learning-centred, citizen science projects. Eight design guidelines are proposed: users as producers of knowledge, topics before tools, mobile affordances, scaffolds to the process of scientific inquiry, learning by doing as key message, being part of a community as key message, every visit brings a reward, and value users and their time

REFERQUAL: A pilot study of a new service quality assessment instrument in the GP Exercise Referral scheme setting

Background The development of an instrument accurately assessing service quality in the GP Exercise Referral Scheme (ERS) industry could potentially inform scheme organisers of the factors that affect adherence rates leading to the implementation of strategic interventions aimed at reducing client drop-out. Methods A modified version of the SERVQUAL instrument was designed for use in the ERS setting and subsequently piloted amongst 27 ERS clients. Results Test re-test correlations were calculated via Pearson's 'r' or Spearman's 'rho', depending on whether the variables were Normally Distributed, to show a significant (mean r = 0.957, SD = 0.02, p < 0.05; mean rho = 0.934, SD = 0.03, p < 0.05) relationship between all items within the questionnaire. In addition, satisfactory internal consistency was demonstrated via Cronbach's 'α'. Furthermore, clients responded favourably towards the usability, wording and applicability of the instrument's items. Conclusion REFERQUAL is considered to represent promise as a suitable tool for future evaluation of service quality within the ERS community. Future research should further assess the validity and reliability of this instrument through the use of a confirmatory factor analysis to scrutinise the proposed dimensional structure

Assessment of lake sensitivity to acidic deposition in national parks of the Rocky Mountains”. In:

Abstract. The sensitivity of high-elevation lakes to acidic deposition was evaluated in five national parks of the Rocky Mountains based on statistical relations between lake acidneutralizing capacity concentrations and basin characteristics. Acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC) of 151 lakes sampled during synoptic surveys and basin-characteristic information derived from geographic information system (GIS) data sets were used to calibrate the statistical models. The explanatory basin variables that were considered included topographic parameters, bedrock type, and vegetation type. A logistic regression model was developed, and modeling results were cross-validated through lake sampling during fall 2004 at 58 lakes. The model was applied to lake basins greater than 1 ha in area in Glacier National Park (n ¼ 244 lakes), Grand Teton National Park (n ¼ 106 lakes), Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve (n ¼ 11 lakes), Rocky Mountain National Park (n ¼ 114 lakes), and Yellowstone National Park (n ¼ 294 lakes). Lakes that had a high probability of having an ANC concentration ,100 leq/L, and therefore sensitive to acidic deposition, are located in basins with elevations .3000 m, with ,30% of the catchment having northeast aspect and with .80% of the catchment bedrock having low buffering capacity. The modeling results indicate that the most sensitive lakes are located in Rocky Mountain National Park and Grand Teton National Park. This technique for evaluating the lake sensitivity to acidic deposition is useful for designing long-term monitoring plans and is potentially transferable to other remote mountain areas of the United States and the world

Assessment of lake sensitivity to acidic deposition in national parks of the Rocky Mountains”. In:

Abstract. The sensitivity of high-elevation lakes to acidic deposition was evaluated in five national parks of the Rocky Mountains based on statistical relations between lake acidneutralizing capacity concentrations and basin characteristics. Acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC) of 151 lakes sampled during synoptic surveys and basin-characteristic information derived from geographic information system (GIS) data sets were used to calibrate the statistical models. The explanatory basin variables that were considered included topographic parameters, bedrock type, and vegetation type. A logistic regression model was developed, and modeling results were cross-validated through lake sampling during fall 2004 at 58 lakes. The model was applied to lake basins greater than 1 ha in area in Glacier National Park (n ¼ 244 lakes), Grand Teton National Park (n ¼ 106 lakes), Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve (n ¼ 11 lakes), Rocky Mountain National Park (n ¼ 114 lakes), and Yellowstone National Park (n ¼ 294 lakes). Lakes that had a high probability of having an ANC concentration ,100 leq/L, and therefore sensitive to acidic deposition, are located in basins with elevations .3000 m, with ,30% of the catchment having northeast aspect and with .80% of the catchment bedrock having low buffering capacity. The modeling results indicate that the most sensitive lakes are located in Rocky Mountain National Park and Grand Teton National Park. This technique for evaluating the lake sensitivity to acidic deposition is useful for designing long-term monitoring plans and is potentially transferable to other remote mountain areas of the United States and the world

Effects of a single aerobic exercise session on body image

Background and Objectives Most research on the effects of exercise on body image has concentrated on the benefits of regular exercise. However, some research has indicated that exercise has an immediate impact on body image. The aims of this study were to investigate the immediate effects of aerobic exercise in a fitness class and the at-home environment on body image, and to examine the impact of nutritional status (i.e., normal weight vs. overweight/obesity) and exercise addiction on these changes. Method 322 Hungarian women participated in the study with two different environmental conditions, fitness class condition (N = 155) and at-home video condition (N = 167). They completed the Body Appreciation Scale and Exercise Addiction Inventory before and after a one-hour aerobic exercise session. Self-report data on weight, height and exercise frequency were also collected. Results There were no significant differences between the fitness class and video groups in terms of age, educational level, BMI, body appreciation, exercise frequency and exercise addiction. We found that 7.5% (N = 24) of the participants were at risk for exercise addiction. Aerobic exercise had a significant positive effect on body appreciation (t(321) = 7.564, p < .001) independently from environment and nutritional status. Exercise addiction moderated the relationship between exercise and body image, the at risk for exercise addiction group showed the greatest improvement (F(1) = 3.252, p = .040). Conclusion The results indicate that even a one-hour aerobic exercise session has a positive effect on body image; this has important practical implications for intervention strategies and weight-loss treatments. | Elméleti háttér és célkitűzés Bár a legtöbb kutatás a rendszeres testedzés testképre gyakorolt pozitív hatására fókuszál, néhány vizsgálat eredménye a testedzés testképre tett azonnali hatására hívja fel a figyelmet. Jelen tanulmány célja az aerobik edzés testképre gyakorolt azonnali hatásának vizsgálata fitnesztermi és otthoni edzési körülmények között, továbbá a tápláltsági állapot (normális testsúly vs. túlsúly/elhízás) és a testedzésfüggőség potenciális moderátor szerepének vizsgálata az edzés és a testkép alakulása közötti kapcsolatban. Módszer A vizsgálatba aerobikedzést folytató nőket vontunk be (n = 322). A résztvevők egyik része edzőteremben folytatta a testgyakorlást (n = 155), másik része otthon végzett aerobik testedzést, video vagy DVD segítségével (n = 167). Mérőeszközök önbeszámolóval nyert testtömeg és testmagasság, a testedzés gyakoriságára vonatkozó kérdés, Testértékelési Skála, Testedzés Addikció Kérdőív. Az adatfelvétel az egyórás testgyakorlást megelőzően és azt követően történt. Eredmények Nem találtunk szignifikáns különbséget az edzőteremben és az otthonukban aerobik edzést folytató nők között az életkor, az iskolai végzettség, a BMI, a testértékelés, a testedzés gyakorisága és a testedzésfüggőség tekintetében. A válaszadók 7,5%-a (n = 24) esetében jelenik meg a testedzésfüggőség kockázata. Az egyórás testedzés szignifikáns, kedvező hatást gyakorolt a testképre (t(321) = 7,564; p < 0,001), amely hatás a testgyakorlás helyszínétől (edzőterem vs. otthon) és a tápláltsági állapottól függetlennek bizonyult. A testedzésfüggőség azonban moderálta a testgyakorlás és a testkép változásának kapcsolatát: a testedzést követően a testedzésfüggőség szempontjából veszélyeztetett csoportban mutatkozott meg a legnagyobb mértékű, pozitív irányú változás a testkép tekintetében (F(1) = 3,252; p = 0,040). Következtetés Eredményeink arra utalnak, hogy akár egy egyórás testgyakorlásnak is pozitív hatása lehet a testképre, amelynek jelentős gyakorlati implikációi vannak a testsúlycsökkentő kezelések szempontjából

Criticality and Superfluidity in liquid He-4 under Nonequilibrium Conditions

We review a striking array of recent experiments, and their theoretical interpretations, on the superfluid transition in $^4$He in the presence of a heat flux, $Q$. We define and evaluate a new set of critical point exponents. The statics and dynamics of the superfluid-normal interface are discussed, with special attention to the role of gravity. If $Q$ is in the same direction as gravity, a self-organized state can arise, in which the entire sample has a uniform reduced temperature, on either the normal or superfluid side of the transition. Finally, we review recent theory and experiment regarding the heat capacity at constant $Q$. The excitement that surrounds this field arises from the fact that advanced thermometry and the future availability of a microgravity experimental platform aboard the International Space Station will soon open to experimental exploration decades of reduced temperature that were previously inaccessible.Comment: 16 pages, 9 figures, plus harvard.sty style file for references Accepted for publication in Colloquia section of Reviews of Modern Physic