Practical solutions for sampling alternatives in large-scale models

Many large-scale real-world transport applications have choice sets that are so large as to make model estimation and application computationally impractical. The ability to estimate models on subsets of the alternatives is thus of great appeal, and correction approaches have existed since the late 1970s for the simple multinomial logit (MNL) model. However, many of these models in practice rely on nested logit specifications, for example, in the context of the joint choice of mode and destination. Recent research has put forward solutions for such generalized extreme value (GEV) structures, but these structures remain difficult to apply in practice. This paper puts forward a simplification of the GEV method for use in computationally efficient implementations of nested logit. The good performance of this approach is illustrated with simulated data, and additional insights into sampling error are also provided with different sampling strategies for MNL

Utjecaj sadržaja lijeka i veličine aglomerata na tabletiranje i oslobađanje bromheksin hidroklorida iz aglomerata s talkom pripremljenih kristalokoaglomeracijom

The objective of the investigation was to study the effect of bromhexine hydrochloride (BXH) content and agglomerate size on mechanical, compressional and drug release properties of agglomerates prepared by crystallo-co-agglomeration (CCA). Studies on optimized batches of agglomerates (BXT1 and BXT2) prepared by CCA have showed adequate sphericity and strength required for efficient tabletting. Trend of strength reduction with a decrease in the size of agglomerates was noted for both batches, irrespective of drug loading. However, an increase in mean yield pressure (14.189 to 19.481) with an increase in size was observed for BXT2 having BXH-talc (1:15.7). Surprisingly, improvement in tensile strength was demonstrated by compacts prepared from BXT2, due to high BXH load, whereas BXT1, having a low amount of BXH (BXH-talc, 1:24), showed low tensile strength. Consequently, increased tensile strength was reflected in extended drug release from BXT2 compacts (Higuchi model, R2 = 0.9506 to 0.9981). Thus, it can be concluded that interparticulate bridges formed by BXH and agglomerate size affect their mechanical, compressional and drug release properties.Cilj rada bio je praćenje utjecaja sadržaja bromheksidin hidroklorida (BXH) i veličine aglomerata na mehanička svojstva, kompresivnost i oslobađanje ljekovite tvari iz aglomerata pripravljenih kristalokoaglomeracijom (CCA). Optimizirani pripravci aglomerata (BXT1 i BXT2) pripravljeni CCA metodom pokazuju adekvatnu sferičnost i čvrstoću potrebnu za učinkovito tabletiranje. U oba pripravka se smanjenjem veličine aglomerata smanjivala i čvrstoća, neovisno o količini ljekovite tvari. Međutim, povećanje prosječnog tlaka s povećanjem veličine čestica primijećeno je u pripravku BXT2 s omjerom BXH-talk 1:15,7. Iznenađuje da su kompakti pripravljeni iz BXT2, s visokim sadržajem BXH, imali veću vlačnu čvrstoću, dok su BXT1 s niskim sadržajem BXH (BXH-talk, 1:24) imali manju čvrstoću. Veća vlačna čvrstoća imala je za posljedicu produljeno oslobađanje ljekovite tvari iz BXT2 (Higuchijev model, R2 = 0,9506 do 0,9981). Može se zaključiti da mostovi među česticama BXH i veličina aglomerata utječu na njihova mehanička i kompresivna svojstva te na oslobađanje ljekovite tvari

Closed-Form Bayesian Inferences for the Logit Model via Polynomial Expansions

Articles in Marketing and choice literatures have demonstrated the need for incorporating person-level heterogeneity into behavioral models (e.g., logit models for multiple binary outcomes as studied here). However, the logit likelihood extended with a population distribution of heterogeneity doesn't yield closed-form inferences, and therefore numerical integration techniques are relied upon (e.g., MCMC methods). We present here an alternative, closed-form Bayesian inferences for the logit model, which we obtain by approximating the logit likelihood via a polynomial expansion, and then positing a distribution of heterogeneity from a flexible family that is now conjugate and integrable. For problems where the response coefficients are independent, choosing the Gamma distribution leads to rapidly convergent closed-form expansions; if there are correlations among the coefficients one can still obtain rapidly convergent closed-form expansions by positing a distribution of heterogeneity from a Multivariate Gamma distribution. The solution then comes from the moment generating function of the Multivariate Gamma distribution or in general from the multivariate heterogeneity distribution assumed. Closed-form Bayesian inferences, derivatives (useful for elasticity calculations), population distribution parameter estimates (useful for summarization) and starting values (useful for complicated algorithms) are hence directly available. Two simulation studies demonstrate the efficacy of our approach.Comment: 30 pages, 2 figures, corrected some typos. Appears in Quantitative Marketing and Economics vol 4 (2006), no. 2, 173--20

Income effects, cost damping and the value of time: theoretical properties embedded within practical travel choice models

Mackie et al. (Values of travel time savings in the UK. Report to Department for Transport. Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds & John Bates Services, Leeds and Abingdon, 2003) proposed an identity relating the value of time (VoT) for commute and leisure travel to income and travel cost, reporting the prevalence of ‘cost damping’ (i.e. the phenomenon where VoT increases as travel cost increases). This identity (or a variant thereof) has been adopted within official methods for estimating VoT in the UK, Switzerland and The Netherlands. The present paper shows that Mackie et al.’s identity: (i) implies linear preferences, not strictly convex preferences as reported by Mackie et al.; (ii) complies with homogeneity and symmetry by construction; (iii) complies with adding-up if and only if VoT is unit elastic with respect to income; (iv) complies with negativity if VoT is unit elastic or greater with respect to income; (v) violates both adding-up and negativity in the case of the 2003 UK national VoT study. We propose alternative identities which comply with adding-up and homogeneity by construction, and offer comparable fit to Mackie et al.’s identity on the UK VoT dataset. We also find that the imposition of adding-up and negativity on Mackie et al.’s identity, through appropriate constraint on model estimation, leads to an increase of around 20% in valuations from the 2003 UK dataset

Another Avenue for Anatomy of Income Comparisons : Evidence from Hypothetical Choice Experiments

September 2010, Revised December 2010, Secondly Revised November 2011, Thirdly Revised May 2012, Fourthly Revised March 2013

Testing for Complementarity: Glyphosate Tolerant Soybeans and Conservation Tillage

Many decisions in agriculture are made over combinations of inputs and/or practices that may form a technology system linked through complementarity. The presence of complementarity among producer decisions can have far-reaching implications for market outcomes and for the effectiveness of policies intended to influence them. Identifying complementarity relations, however, is made difficult by the presence of unobserved heterogeneity. Drawing on recent methodological advances, in this paper we develop a test for complementarity between glyphosate tolerant soybeans and conservation tillage that overcomes certain limitations of previous studies. Specifically, we develop a structural discrete choice framework of joint soybean-tillage adoption that explicitly models both complementarity and the correlation induced by unobserved heterogeneity. The model is estimated with a large unbalanced panel of farm-level choices spanning the 1998–2011 period. We find that glyphosate tolerant soybeans and conservation tillage are complementary practices. In addition, our estimation shows that farm operation scale promotes the adoption of both conservation tillage and glyphosate tolerant seed, and that all of higher fuel prices, more droughty conditions, and soil erodibility increase use of conservation tillage. We apply our results to simulate annual adoption rates for both conservation tillage and no-tillage in a scenario without glyphosate tolerant soybeans available as a choice. We find that the adoption of conservation tillage and no-tillage have been about 10% and 20% higher, respectively, due to the advent of glyphosate tolerant soybeans