Multidecadal changes in winter circulation-climate relationship in Europe: frequency variations, within-type modifications, and long-term trends

Using pressure fields classified by the SANDRA algorithm, this study investigates the changes in the relationship between North Atlantic/European sea level pressure (SLP) and gridded European winter (DJF) temperature and precipitation back to 1750. Important changes in the frequency of the SLP clusters are found, though none of them indicating significant long-term trends. However, for the majority of the SLP clusters a tendency toward overall warmer and partly wetter winter conditions is found, most pronounced over the last decades. This suggests important within-type variations, i.e. the temperature and precipitation fields related to a particular SLP pattern change their characteristics over time. Using a decomposition scheme we find for temperature and precipitation that within-type-related variations dominate over those due to changed frequencies of the SLP clusters: Approximately 70% (60%) of European winter temperature (precipitation) variations can be explained by within-type changes, most strongly expressed over Eastern Europe and Scandinavia. This indicates that the current European winter warming cannot be explained by changed frequencies of the SLP patterns alone, but to a larger degree by changed characteristics of the patterns themselves. Potential sources of within-type variations are discusse

Comparison of climate field reconstruction techniques: application to Europe

This paper presents a comparison of principal component (PC) regression and regularized expectation maximization (RegEM) to reconstruct European summer and winter surface air temperature over the past millennium. Reconstruction is performed within a surrogate climate using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Climate System Model (CSM) 1.4 and the climate model ECHO-G 4, assuming different white and red noise scenarios to define the distortion of pseudoproxy series. We show how sensitivity tests lead to valuable "a priori” information that provides a basis for improving real world proxy reconstructions. Our results emphasize the need to carefully test and evaluate reconstruction techniques with respect to the temporal resolution and the spatial scale they are applied to. Furthermore, we demonstrate that uncertainties inherent to the predictand and predictor data have to be more rigorously taken into account. The comparison of the two statistical techniques, in the specific experimental setting presented here, indicates that more skilful results are achieved with RegEM as low frequency variability is better preserved. We further detect seasonal differences in reconstruction skill for the continental scale, as e.g. the target temperature average is more adequately reconstructed for summer than for winter. For the specific predictor network given in this paper, both techniques underestimate the target temperature variations to an increasing extent as more noise is added to the signal, albeit RegEM less than with PC regression. We conclude that climate field reconstruction techniques can be improved and need to be further optimized in future application

Multiproxy summer and winter surface air temperature field reconstructions for southern South America covering the past centuries

We statistically reconstruct austral summer (winter) surface air temperature fields back to ad 900 (1706) using 22 (20) annually resolved predictors from natural and human archives from southern South America (SSA). This represents the first regional-scale climate field reconstruction for parts of the Southern Hemisphere at this high temporal resolution. We apply three different reconstruction techniques: multivariate principal component regression, composite plus scaling, and regularized expectation maximization. There is generally good agreement between the results of the three methods on interannual and decadal timescales. The field reconstructions allow us to describe differences and similarities in the temperature evolution of different sub-regions of SSA. The reconstructed SSA mean summer temperatures between 900 and 1350 are mostly above the 1901-1995 climatology. After 1350, we reconstruct a sharp transition to colder conditions, which last until approximately 1700. The summers in the eighteenth century are relatively warm with a subsequent cold relapse peaking around 1850. In the twentieth century, summer temperatures reach conditions similar to earlier warm periods. The winter temperatures in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries were mostly below the twentieth century average. The uncertainties of our reconstructions are generally largest in the eastern lowlands of SSA, where the coverage with proxy data is poorest. Verifications with independent summer temperature proxies and instrumental measurements suggest that the interannual and multi-decadal variations of SSA temperatures are well captured by our reconstructions. This new dataset can be used for data/model comparison and data assimilation as well as for detection and attribution studies at sub-continental scales

Comparison of climate field reconstruction techniques: Application to Europe

This paper presents a comparison of principal component (PC) regression and regularized expectation maximization (RegEM) to reconstruct European summer and winter surface air temperature over the past millennium. Reconstruction is performed within a surrogate climate using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Climate System Model (CSM) 1.4 and the climate model ECHO-G 4, assuming different white and red noise scenarios to define the distortion of pseudoproxy series. We show how sensitivity tests lead to valuable “a priori” information that provides a basis for improving real world proxy reconstructions. Our results emphasize the need to carefully test and evaluate reconstruction techniques with respect to the temporal resolution and the spatial scale they are applied to. Furthermore, we demonstrate that uncertainties inherent to the predictand and predictor data have to be more rigorously taken into account. The comparison of the two statistical techniques, in the specific experimental setting presented here, indicates that more skilful results are achieved with RegEM as low frequency variability is better preserved. We further detect seasonal differences in reconstruction skill for the continental scale, as e.g. the target temperature average is more adequately reconstructed for summer than for winter. For the specific predictor network given in this paper, both techniques underestimate the target temperature variations to an increasing extent as more noise is added to the signal, albeit RegEM less than with PC regression. We conclude that climate field reconstruction techniques can be improved and need to be further optimized in future applications

Winter precipitation trends for two selected European regions over the last 500 years and their possible dynamical background

We analyse winter (DJF) precipitation over the last 500 years on trends using a spatially and temporally highly resolved gridded multi-proxy reconstruction over European land areas. The trends are detected applying trend matrices, and the significance is assessed with the Mann–Kendall-trend test. Results are presented for southwestern Norway and southern Spain/northern Morocco, two regions that show high reconstruction skill over the entire period. The absolute trend values found in the second part of the 20th century are unprecedented over the last 500 years in both regions. During the period 1715–1765, the precipitation trends were most pronounced in southwestern Norway as well as southern Spain/northern Morocco, with first a distinct negative trend followed by a positive countertrend of similar strength. Relating the precipitation time series to variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) and the solar irradiance using running correlations revealed a couple of instationarities. Nevertheless, it appears that the NAO is responsible in both regions for most of the significant winter precipitation trends during the earlier centuries as well as during recent decades. Some of the significant winter precipitation trends over southwestern Norway and southern Spain/northern Morocco might be related to changes in the solar irradiance