Assessing uncertainties in estimating surface energy fluxes from remote sensing over natural grasslands in Brazil

Evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the main fluxes in the global water cycle. As the Brazilian Pampa biome carries a rich biodiversity, accurate information on the ET dynamics is essential to support its proper monitoring and establish conservation strategies. In this context, we assessed an operational methodology based on the Simplified Surface Energy Balance Index (S-SEBI) model to estimate energy fluxes over the natural grasslands of the Pampa between 2014 and 2019. The S-SEBI is an ET model that requires a minimum of meteorological inputs and has demonstrated reasonable accuracy worldwide. Therefore, we investigated the model performance considering radiation data from both ERA5 reanalysis and Eddy Covariance measurements from a flux tower. Furthermore, comparisons from satellite-based estimates with in situ measurements were performed with and without energy balance closure (EBC). Results indicated that the meteorological inputs have low sensitivity on daily ET estimates from the S-SEBI model. In contrast, the instantaneous energy balance components are more affected. The strong seasonality impacts the evaporative fraction, which is more evident in late summer and autumn and may compromise the performance of the model in the biome. The effects in the daily ET are lower when in situ data without EBC are considered as ground truth. However, they are less correlated with the remote sensing-based estimates. These insights are useful to monitor water and energy fluxes from local to regional scale and provide the opportunity to capture ET trends over the natural grasslands of the Pampa

Assessing uncertainties in estimating surface energy fluxes from remote sensing over natural grasslands in Brazil

Evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the main fluxes in the global water cycle. As the Brazilian Pampa biome carries a rich biodiversity, accurate information on the ET dynamics is essential to support its proper monitoring and establish conservation strategies. In this context, we assessed an operational methodology based on the Simplified Surface Energy Balance Index (S-SEBI) model to estimate energy fluxes over the natural grasslands of the Pampa between 2014 and 2019. The S-SEBI is an ET model that requires a minimum of meteorological inputs and has demonstrated reasonable accuracy worldwide. Therefore, we investigated the model performance considering radiation data from both ERA5 reanalysis and Eddy Covariance measurements from a flux tower. Furthermore, comparisons from satellite-based estimates with in situ measurements were performed with and without energy balance closure (EBC). Results indicated that the meteorological inputs have low sensitivity on daily ET estimates from the S-SEBI model. In contrast, the instantaneous energy balance components are more affected. The strong seasonality impacts the evaporative fraction, which is more evident in late summer and autumn and may compromise the performance of the model in the biome. The effects in the daily ET are lower when in situ data without EBC are considered as ground truth. However, they are less correlated with the remote sensing-based estimates. These insights are useful to monitor water and energy fluxes from local to regional scale and provide the opportunity to capture ET trends over the natural grasslands of the Pampa

How well do covariates perform when adjusting for sampling bias in online COVID-19 research? Insights from multiverse analyses

COVID-19 research has relied heavily on convenience-based samples, which—though often necessary—are susceptible to important sampling biases. We begin with a theoretical overview and introduction to the dynamics that underlie sampling bias. We then empirically examine sampling bias in online COVID-19 surveys and evaluate the degree to which common statistical adjustments for demographic covariates successfully attenuate such bias. This registered study analysed responses to identical questions from three convenience and three largely representative samples (total N = 13,731) collected online in Canada within the International COVID-19 Awareness and Responses Evaluation Study (www.icarestudy.com). We compared samples on 11 behavioural and psychological outcomes (e.g., adherence to COVID-19 prevention measures, vaccine intentions) across three time points and employed multiverse-style analyses to examine how 512 combinations of demographic covariates (e.g., sex, age, education, income, ethnicity) impacted sampling discrepancies on these outcomes. Significant discrepancies emerged between samples on 73% of outcomes. Participants in the convenience samples held more positive thoughts towards and engaged in more COVID-19 prevention behaviours. Covariates attenuated sampling differences in only 55% of cases and increased differences in 45%. No covariate performed reliably well. Our results suggest that online convenience samples may display more positive dispositions towards COVID-19 prevention behaviours being studied than would samples drawn using more representative means. Adjusting results for demographic covariates frequently increased rather than decreased bias, suggesting that researchers should be cautious when interpreting adjusted findings. Using multiverse-style analyses as extended sensitivity analyses is recommended