A profitability study of CO₂-EOR and subsequent CO₂ storage in the North Sea under low oil market prices

A wide-scale application of CO2-enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) in North Sea oil fields can have many advantages, especially when followed by CO2 geological storage. Under the current low oil prices though, even maintaining basic oil production is challenging. A techno-economic assessment is made of the Claymore oil field with the PSS IV simulator, focusing on uncertainty and investment risk. For a stochastic oil price ranging between 10 and 70 €/bbl, a stochastic CO2 revenue of -10 to 70 €/t and stochastic reservoir parameters, an average NPV of almost 500 M€ is obtained with a 73% chance on a positive NPV if the investment is made. Disregarding uncertainty relating to the underground by fixing the stochastic reservoir parameters, leads remarkably, but also erroneously, to a lower average NPV. Results also show that geological uncertainty is an important factor for determining the economic threshold level of an EOR project, and a proper assessment of the real uncertainties can make the difference between profit and loss. In case of assuming a fixed CO2 revenue at 30 €/t, the probability of implementing EOR becomes higher, but the average NPV and project success rate are significantly lower, at 300 M€ and 63% respectively. This demonstrates that a fixed CO2 tax is not a generic CGS enabling solution. It not well-weighted, it can hamper the deployment of certain technologies. A phase of CO2 geological storage (CGS) after oil production becomes economically interesting from a CO2 revenue of 17€/t. If such a price level can be guaranteed, then continuation of CO2 injection can reduce investment risk for both the EOR and CGS investment, reduces the investment hurdle, and can be a catalyzer for large-scale and widespread CO2 storage in Europe

Geological uncertainty and investment risk in CO₂-enhanced oil recovery

CO2-enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) has the potential to combine the environmental benefits of greenhouse gas emission reduction and the optimal use of natural resources. In economic simulations, CO2-EOR is generally approached in a classical way, with fixed parameters and limited flexibility. We propose a more realistic approach that combines realistic investment decision making with geological and techno-economic uncertainties. A cluster of seven active oil fields in the North Sea is simulated using a newly developed software tool, allowing to assess when EOR technology replaces primary production. CO2 can be delivered from different onshore locations via ship or pipeline. The introduction of near-realistic investment geological and economic risks in CO2-EOR projections will allow for in-depth assessment of CO2-EOR at the level of the North-Sea Basis, as well as of individual potential projects

Towards a dynamic and sustainable management of geological resources

peer reviewedAbstract The subsurface provides multiple resources of which the exploitation has a lasting impact on future potential provision. Establishing sustainability in terms of fundamental principles, and fitting these principles into a practical framework, is an ongoing endeavour focused mainly on surface activities. The principles of ecological economics lead to six challenges that summarize the current limitations of implementing science-based sustainable management of geological resources in the medium to deep subsurface: integrating value pluralism, defining sustainable scale, evaluating interferences in the subsurface, guaranteeing environmental justice, optimising environmental and economic efficiency, and handling uncertainties. Assessing and managing geological reservoirs is particularly intriguing because of slow resource regeneration, complex spatial and temporal interactions, concealment, and naturally dictated opportunities. In answer to the challenges, visions are proposed that outline how an indicator framework is needed for guidance, how indicators require reservoir models with extended spatial and temporal scope, how environmental inequity of social values are to be considered, and how real option games combined with life cycle assessment can be used for optimising efficiency. These individual solutions are different facets of the same problem, and can be integrated into one overarching solution that takes the form of dynamic multi-criteria decision analysis.12. Responsible consumption and productio

Neuropixels 2.0: A miniaturized high-density probe for stable, long-term brain recordings

Measuring the dynamics of neural processing across time scales requires following the spiking of thousands of individual neurons over milliseconds and months. To address this need, we introduce the Neuropixels 2.0 probe together with newly designed analysis algorithms. The probe has more than 5000 sites and is miniaturized to facilitate chronic implants in small mammals and recording during unrestrained behavior. High-quality recordings over long time scales were reliably obtained in mice and rats in six laboratories. Improved site density and arrangement combined with newly created data processing methods enable automatic post hoc correction for brain movements, allowing recording from the same neurons for more than 2 months. These probes and algorithms enable stable recordings from thousands of sites during free behavior, even in small animals such as mice

A profitability study of CO2-EOR and subsequent CO2 storage in the North Sea under low oil market prices

© 2017 The Authors. A wide-scale application of CO2-enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) in North Sea oil fields can have many advantages, especially when followed by CO2geological storage. Under the current low oil prices though, even maintaining basic oil production is challenging. A techno-economic assessment is made of the Claymore oil field with the PSS IV simulator, focusing on uncertainty and investment risk. For a stochastic oil price ranging between 10 and 70 €/bbl, a stochastic CO2revenue of -10 to 70 €/t and stochastic reservoir parameters, an average NPV of almost 500 M€ is obtained with a 73% chance on a positive NPV if the investment is made. Disregarding uncertainty relating to the underground by fixing the stochastic reservoir parameters, leads remarkably, but also erroneously, to a lower average NPV. Results also show that geological uncertainty is an important factor for determining the economic threshold level of an EOR project, and a proper assessment of the real uncertainties can make the difference between profit and loss. In case of assuming a fixed CO2revenue at 30 €/t, the probability of implementing EOR becomes higher, but the average NPV and project success rate are significantly lower, at 300 M€ and 63% respectively. This demonstrates that a fixed CO2tax is not a generic CGS enabling solution. It not well-weighted, it can hamper the deployment of certain technologies. A phase of CO2geological storage (CGS) after oil production becomes economically interesting from a CO2revenue of 17€/t. If such a price level can be guaranteed, then continuation of CO2injection can reduce investment risk for both the EOR and CGS investment, reduces the investment hurdle, and can be a catalyzer for large-scale and widespread CO2storage in Europe.status: publishe

Strategy for ranking potential CO2 storage reservoirs: A case study for Belgium

CO2 capture and storage (CCS) is likely to become a necessary option in mitigating global climate change. However, lack of detailed knowledge on potential deep geological reservoirs can hamper the development of CCS. In this paper a new methodology is presented to assess and create exploration priority lists for poorly known reservoirs. Geological expert judgements are used as a basis in a two-stage geotechno-economic approach, where first an estimate of the practical reservoir capacity is calculated, and secondly source–sink matching is used for calculating an estimate of the matched capacity and the reservoir development probability. This approach is applied to Belgium, demonstrating how a priority ranking for reservoirs can be obtained based on limited available data and large uncertainties. The results show the Neeroeteren Formation as the most prospective reservoir, followed by the Buntsandstein Formation and the Dinantian reservoirs. The findings indicate that CO2 export to reservoirs in neighbouring countries seems inevitable; still, there is a 70% chance storage will happen in Belgian reservoirs, with an average matched capacity estimate of 110 Mt CO2. These quantitative results confirm the qualitative resource pyramid classification of potential reservoirs. For Belgium, a high economic risk is attached to reservoir exploration and development. Exploration remains however a necessity if CCS is to be deployed. Furthermore, it is shown that the presented methodology is indeed capable of producing realistic results, and that using expert judgements for reservoir assessments is valid and beneficial.status: publishe

CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery and CO 2 capture and storage: An environmental economic trade-off analysis

CO 2 enhanced oil recovery can play a significant role in stimulating carbon capture and storage because of additional oil revenues generated. However, it also leads to additional greenhouse gas emissions. We estimate the global warming potential of different CO 2 capture scenarios with and without enhanced oil recovery. During a 10 year period in which oil and electricity are produced without CO 2 being captured, the global warming potential is 11 MtCO 2 equivalents. We show that if CO 2 is captured and used for 15 years of enhanced oil recovery, the global warming potential decreases to 3.4 MtCO 2 equivalents. This level is 100% higher compared to the scenario in which the captured CO 2 would be stored in an offshore aquifer instead. If the capture of CO 2 is stopped when the oil reservoir is depleted, the global warming potential resulting from 10 years electricity production is 6 MtCO 2 equivalents. However, if CO 2 is stored in the depleted reservoir, the global warming potential is six times lower during that period. Electricity production and oil refining are the main contributors to the global warming potential. The net present value analysis indicates that for CO 2 prices lower than or equal to 15 €/t and oil prices greater than or equal to 115 €/t, it is most profitable to capture CO 2 for enhanced oil recovery only. Because of the low CO 2 price considered, large incomes from oil production are required to stimulate CO 2 capture. The environmental economic trade-off analysis shows that if CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery is followed by CO 2 capture and storage, costs increase, but the net present value remains positive and the global warming potential is reduced. Authorities could use these outcomes to support the development of economic mechanisms for shared investments in CO 2 capture installations and to mandate both oil producer and large CO 2 emitting firms to store CO 2 in depleted oil fields