Integrating social–ecological vulnerability assessments with climate forecasts to improve local climate adaptation planning for coral reef fisheries in Papua New Guinea

A major gap exists in integrating climate projections and social–ecological vulnerability analyses at scales that matter, which has affected local-scale adaptation planning and actions to date. We address this gap by providing a novel methodology that integrates information on: (i) the expected future climate, including climate-related extreme events, at the village level; (ii) an ecological assessment of the impacts of these climate forecasts on coral reefs; and (iii) the social adaptive capacity of the artisanal fishers, to create an integrated vulnerability assessment on coastal communities in five villages in Papua New Guinea. We show that, despite relatively proximate geographies, there are substantial differences in both the predicted extreme rainfall and temperature events and the social adaptive capacity among the five fishing-dependent communities, meaning that they have likely different vulnerabilities to future climate change. Our methodology shows that it is possible to capture social information and integrate this with climate and ecological modeling in ways that are best suited to address the impacts of climate-mediated environmental changes currently underway across different scales

Climate change risk responses in East African cities : need, barriers and opportunities

The intensity of future climate change impacts is likely to increase current vulnerabilities and further reduce existing adaptive capacities in major urban areas of East Africa. The current urbanisation of poverty in the region has caused huge intra-urban social inequalities, and presents an enormous challenge for these cities to become economic growth engines in a global network of cities, capable of delivering adequate services and quality of life for their rapidly growing population. The impacts of uncertain climate change are expected to further compound the destitution of the urban poor in addition to affecting both local and national economies. Yet, the governing authorities are yet to appreciate the synergies between successful climate change risk responses and sustainable urban development initiatives instead of viewing it as an add-on to overall strategies driven by economic and spatial concerns.5 page(s

An Integrated city-level planning process to address the impacts of climate change in Kenya : the case of Mombasa

Climate change presents one of the greatest challenges in urban development planning, yet leadership from planning can help society grapple with this challenge. Success in planning is especially important in coastal cities, where urbanization is heavily influenced by the coastline, and development planning processes have to take into consideration the socio-economic as well as ecological reasons why cities were located at the coast. This paper investigates the possibilities of and impediments to an integrated city-level planning framework that is responsive to climate change, using the case of the East African coastal city of Mombasa. It contends that both the principle of subsidiarity as well as the established law give the municipal government the necessary jurisdiction over the baseline issues underlying city management, which through stakeholder engagement, can be leveraged to facilitate an integrated climate change-responsive planning. Research highlights ► Leadership from planning can help society overcome some of the challenges posed by climate change. ► Planning systems in most low income countries do not favour an integrated planning approach. ► The powers and the central role of municipal authorities can be leveraged to facilitate an integrated climate change responsive planning. ► Achieving a citywide integrated plan that is responsive to climate change will require the involvement of stakeholders across scales.10 page(s

Urban wildscapes and green spaces in Mombasa and their potential contribution to climate change adaptation and mitigation

Well-planned urban green landscapes, including wildscapes and green spaces, have the potential to contribute to climate change adaptation and mitigation. Yet for cities in low-income countries, the value of these urban landscapes in climate change response strategies is often disregarded and remains largely unexploited and unaccounted for. This paper discusses the potential role of urban green landscapes as a "soft engineering" climate change response strategy, and calls for the pursuance of management practices that preserve and promote the use of these urban spaces. It does so by combining theoretical arguments with an empirical example based on an innovative and novel approach to landscape rehabilitation, the Lafarge Ecosystems Programme, in the coastal city of Mombasa, Kenya. The paper finds that a well-managed system of green landscapes in resource-poor urban areas can generate net social benefits under a range of future scenarios. It further finds that climate change adaptation and mitigation responses can be initiated by a range of stakeholders operating at all scales.15 page(s