Crisis decision-making: the overlap between intuitive and analytical strategies

he paper draws on the naturalistic decision making (NDM) and cognitive science literature to examine how experienced crisis managers utilize the intuitive and analytical strategies when managing complex incidents. A cognitive model that describes the interplay between strategies is presented and discussed, and the specific role that intuition plays in analytical decision making is addressed.Designed as a conceptual paper, the extant literature is reviewed to advance discussions on the theme of intuitive and analytical decision making in the naturalistic environment. A new model of expert intuition ── the information filtering and intuitive decision model ── is presented and evaluated against existing cognitive models from the wider literature.The paper suggests that experts’ ability to make intuitive decisions is strongly hinged on their information processing skills that allow irrelevant cues to be sifted out while the relevant cues are retained. The paper further revealed that experts generally employ the intuitive mode as their default strategy, drawing on the analytical mode only as conditions warrant.Prior research has shown that experts often make important task decisions using intuitive or analytical strategies or by combining both, but the sequence these should typically follow is still unresolved. Findings from our intuition model reveal that although intuition often precedes analytical thinking in almost all cases, both strategies exist to offer significant values to decision makers if the basis of their application is well understood

Was the COVID-19 pandemic a predictable surprise? A crisis management perspective.

In their seminal work, Watkins and Bazerman (2003) defined a predictable surprise as “an event or set of events that take an individual or group by surprise, despite prior awareness of the information required to anticipate the events and their consequences”. The authors argued that predictable surprises are predominantly a failure of (i) recognition— the inability of an individual or group to spot red- flags, gaps and weaknesses in a system before they escalate to major disruptions (ii) prioritisation — failure to manage identified threats with the level of importance and urgency they require, and (iii) mobilisation — failure to organise and coordinate key resources in response to a potential or ongoing disaster. The authors subsequently developed a recognition-prioritisation-mobilisation (RPM) framework, which they proposed as a useful tool to gauge and/or ascertain the predictability of a crisis in hindsight. The impact of COVID-19 has been monumental on the global economy; national lockdowns and individual isolation have crushed world trade and commerce, putting globalisation on the backfoot probably for a foreseeable future. Activities involving the coming together of people have been grossly affected: air travel, tourism, sports, religion, arts, not to mention the sharp rise in unemployment rate in most parts of the world. But amidst all this chaos, many have wondered if better recognition of threats, prioritisation of actions and mobilisation of resources might have helped to reduce the impact of this pandemic on governments, businesses and citizens at large? This is the overarching question this paper seeks to address

Eliciting experts’ knowledge in emergency response organizations

Purpose: Experienced fire ground commanders are known to make decisions in time-pressured and dynamic environments. The purpose of this paper is to report some of the tacit knowledge and skills expert firefighters use in performing complex fire ground tasks. Design/Methodology/Approach: This study utilized a structured knowledge elicitation tool, known as the critical decision method (CDM), to elicit expert knowledge. Seventeen experienced fire-fighters were interviewed indepth using a semi-structured CDM interview protocol. The CDM protocol was analyzed using the emergent themes analysis (ETA) approach Findings: Findings from the CDM protocol reveal both the salient cues sought, which we termed critical cue inventory (CCI), and the goals pursued by the fire ground commanders at each decision point. The CCI is categorized into five classes based on the type of information each cue generates to the incident commanders Practical Implications: Since the critical decision method is a useful tool for identifying training needs, this study discussed the practical implications for transferring experts’ knowledge to novice firefighters Originality/Value: Although many authors recognize that experts perform exceptionally well in their domains of practice, the difficulty still lies in getting a structured method for unmasking experts’ tacit knowledge. This paper is therefore relevant as it presents useful findings following a naturalistic knowledge elicitation study that was conducted across different fire stations in the UK and Nigeria

Towards the classification of fireground cues: a qualitative analysis of expert reports

Whilst there is evidence linking informational cue processing ability to effective decision making on the fireground, only a few studies have actually attempted detailed description and categorization of the cues sought by fireground commanders when managing real fires. In this study, thirty experienced firefighters were interviewed across various fire stations in the UK and Nigeria using the critical decision method protocol. Forty one different cues were identified, which were then categorized into five distinct types namely: safety cues, cues that indicate the nature of problem, environmental cues, emotive cues, and incident command and control cues. The paper concludes by evaluating the role of expertise in cue utilization, drawing on evidence from the naturalistic decision making (NDM) literature

Piloting a Portfolio of Experiential Learning Activities for International Business Students

The paper reflects on the practice of implementing a portfolio of experiential learning activities in workshops involving undergraduate students in an international business management module. The aim of the workshops was to bridge the gap between theory and practice and steer students toward an inductive and collaborative learning experience. The paper presents a series of nine activity-based workshops designed to reinforce theoretical concepts taught during lectures. Based on qualitative data from the module evaluation questionnaire, we found that the workshops significantly improved students’ learning experience, as well as enhanced their engagement with the module. This paper provides practitioners with practical materials and insights which can be immediately applied to teaching international business in a classroom environment. Moreover, by implementing a portfolio of experiential learning activities that provides a wide range of opportunities for students to experience first-hand real-world challenges, this approach is expected to aid their learning process at a crucial point of their academic careers

Three-dimensional carbon nanotube yarn based solid state solar cells with multiple sensitizers exhibit high energy conversion efficiency

Fiber-type dye sensitized solar cells that are non-metallic, flexible, and thread-like in structure have many potential military and functional textile applications. With the use of quantum dots (QD), exciton transfer facilitators (Phenyl-C61-butyric acid methyl ester-PCBM) and Poly(3-hexylthiophene-2,5-diyl-P3HT), and careful preparation of the TiO2 oxide layer deposited on the carbon fiber working electrode, an optimized efficiency of 7.6% was obtained. Carbon nanotube yarn (CNTY) was used to prepare both the working and counter electrodes of the fabricated cells. TiCl4 annealing of the TiO2 layer was carried out and the resulting oxide layer morphology was found to be very uniform. The quantum dots, cadmium sulfide (CdS) and cadmium selenide (CdSe), were deposited directly onto the surface of the nanoporous oxide layer using chemical bath deposition (CBD). Also, the P3HT and PCBM were applied and deposited via CBD on the working electrode as a bulk heterojunction material. Potentiometric characterization of the prepared cells performed at different cell lengths and showed that the maximum efficiency was obtained for cells approximately 3.5 cm in length. Photovoltaic performance of these solid state three dimensional cells was also carried out for different cell configurations