Agent-based model with asymmetric trading and herding for complex financial systems

Background: For complex financial systems, the negative and positive return-volatility correlations, i.e., the so-called leverage and anti-leverage effects, are particularly important for the understanding of the price dynamics. However, the microscopic origination of the leverage and anti-leverage effects is still not understood, and how to produce these effects in agent-based modeling remains open. On the other hand, in constructing microscopic models, it is a promising conception to determine model parameters from empirical data rather than from statistical fitting of the results. Methods: To study the microscopic origination of the return-volatility correlation in financial systems, we take into account the individual and collective behaviors of investors in real markets, and construct an agent-based model. The agents are linked with each other and trade in groups, and particularly, two novel microscopic mechanisms, i.e., investors' asymmetric trading and herding in bull and bear markets, are introduced. Further, we propose effective methods to determine the key parameters in our model from historical market data. Results: With the model parameters determined for six representative stock-market indices in the world respectively, we obtain the corresponding leverage or anti-leverage effect from the simulation, and the effect is in agreement with the empirical one on amplitude and duration. At the same time, our model produces other features of the real markets, such as the fat-tail distribution of returns and the long-term correlation of volatilities. Conclusions: We reveal that for the leverage and anti-leverage effects, both the investors' asymmetric trading and herding are essential generation mechanisms. These two microscopic mechanisms and the methods for the determination of the key parameters can be applied to other complex systems with similar asymmetries.Comment: 17 pages, 6 figure

Quantum Game with Restricted Matrix Strategies

We study a quantum game played by two players with restricted multiple strategies. It is found that in this restricted quantum game Nash equilibrium does not always exist when the initial state is entangled. At the same time, we find that when Nash equilibrium exists the pay off function is usually different from that in the classical counterpart except in some special cases. This presents an explicit example where quantum game and classical game may differ. When designing a quantum game with limited strategies, the allowed strategy should be carefully chosen according to the type of initial state.Comment: 5 pages and 3 figure

Unipotent representations of real classical groups

Let $\mathbf G$ be a complex orthogonal or complex symplectic group, and let $G$ be a real form of $\mathbf G$, namely $G$ is a real orthogonal group, a real symplectic group, a quaternionic orthogonal group, or a quaternionic symplectic group. For a fixed parity $\mathbb p\in \mathbb Z/2\mathbb Z$, we define a set $\mathrm{Nil}^{\mathbb p}_{\mathbf G}(\mathfrak g)$ of nilpotent $\mathbf G$-orbits in $\mathfrak g$ (the Lie algebra of $\mathbf G$). When $\mathbb p$ is the parity of the dimension of the standard module of $\mathbf G$, this is the set of the stably trivial special nilpotent orbits, which includes all rigid special nilpotent orbits. For each $\mathcal O \in \mathrm{Nil}^{\mathbb p}_{\mathbf G}(\mathfrak g)$, we construct all unipotent representations of $G$ (or its metaplectic cover when $G$ is a real symplectic group and $\mathbb p$ is odd) attached to $\mathcal O$ via the method of theta lifting and show in particular that they are unitary

Gibbs Max-margin Topic Models with Data Augmentation

Max-margin learning is a powerful approach to building classifiers and structured output predictors. Recent work on max-margin supervised topic models has successfully integrated it with Bayesian topic models to discover discriminative latent semantic structures and make accurate predictions for unseen testing data. However, the resulting learning problems are usually hard to solve because of the non-smoothness of the margin loss. Existing approaches to building max-margin supervised topic models rely on an iterative procedure to solve multiple latent SVM subproblems with additional mean-field assumptions on the desired posterior distributions. This paper presents an alternative approach by defining a new max-margin loss. Namely, we present Gibbs max-margin supervised topic models, a latent variable Gibbs classifier to discover hidden topic representations for various tasks, including classification, regression and multi-task learning. Gibbs max-margin supervised topic models minimize an expected margin loss, which is an upper bound of the existing margin loss derived from an expected prediction rule. By introducing augmented variables and integrating out the Dirichlet variables analytically by conjugacy, we develop simple Gibbs sampling algorithms with no restricting assumptions and no need to solve SVM subproblems. Furthermore, each step of the "augment-and-collapse" Gibbs sampling algorithms has an analytical conditional distribution, from which samples can be easily drawn. Experimental results demonstrate significant improvements on time efficiency. The classification performance is also significantly improved over competitors on binary, multi-class and multi-label classification tasks.Comment: 35 page

Discriminative Nonparametric Latent Feature Relational Models with Data Augmentation

We present a discriminative nonparametric latent feature relational model (LFRM) for link prediction to automatically infer the dimensionality of latent features. Under the generic RegBayes (regularized Bayesian inference) framework, we handily incorporate the prediction loss with probabilistic inference of a Bayesian model; set distinct regularization parameters for different types of links to handle the imbalance issue in real networks; and unify the analysis of both the smooth logistic log-loss and the piecewise linear hinge loss. For the nonconjugate posterior inference, we present a simple Gibbs sampler via data augmentation, without making restricting assumptions as done in variational methods. We further develop an approximate sampler using stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics to handle large networks with hundreds of thousands of entities and millions of links, orders of magnitude larger than what existing LFRM models can process. Extensive studies on various real networks show promising performance.Comment: Accepted by AAAI 201

How volatilities nonlocal in time affect the price dynamics in complex financial systems

What is the dominating mechanism of the price dynamics in financial systems is of great interest to scientists. The problem whether and how volatilities affect the price movement draws much attention. Although many efforts have been made, it remains challenging. Physicists usually apply the concepts and methods in statistical physics, such as temporal correlation functions, to study financial dynamics. However, the usual volatility-return correlation function, which is local in time, typically fluctuates around zero. Here we construct dynamic observables nonlocal in time to explore the volatility-return correlation, based on the empirical data of hundreds of individual stocks and 25 stock market indices in different countries. Strikingly, the correlation is discovered to be non-zero, with an amplitude of a few percent and a duration of over two weeks. This result provides compelling evidence that past volatilities nonlocal in time affect future returns. Further, we introduce an agent-based model with a novel mechanism, that is, the asymmetric trading preference in volatile and stable markets, to understand the microscopic origin of the volatility-return correlation nonlocal in time.Comment: 16 pages, 7 figure