Human preferences and risky choices

There are different views on what preferences for risks are and whether they are indicators of stable, underlying generic cognitive systems. Preferences could be conceived as an attitude towards a set of properties of context, memory and affect - a gauge of how much uncertainty one is willing to tolerate. This special issue aims to initiate a discussion on the stability of preferences for risks - as research has shown that different decision domains, response modes, and framing facilitate preference reversals. A consistent claim from behavioural decision researchers is that, contrary to the assumptions of classical economics, preferences are not stable and inherent constructs in individuals but are modified by levels of accessibility in memory, context, decision complexity, and type of psychological processing (e.g., sampling or computational “tradeoffs” in processing). For example, in a sampling-based decision-making paradigm it is argued that preferences are not essential for making risky decisions. The existing theoretical and empirical evidence reveals that human preferences are relative and unstable, undermining the predictions of normative theory. Recent theoretical accounts in psychology have expanded the debate further by offering evolutionary models of decision-making under risk. While most of the researcher has explored optimisation goals (traditionally assumed in economics), evolutionary psychology has promoted adaptation-driven processes for risky choices. Moreover, we have witnessed a renaissance of preferences as affect rather than as a construct with psycho-economical properties. Although behavioural decision research is still engaged in challenging the foundation of economic theory, at present, opinions seem less unified as to whether preferences reflect common psychological constructs

Consumer attitudes towards switching supplier in three deregulated markets

The efficiency of deregulated markets is jeopardized by consumers failing to switch supplier to the extent that would be beneficial to them. In order to disentangle the determinants of failures to switch, the present study investigates consumers' motives for negative attitudes towards switching in the deregulated Swedish markets for electricity, landline telecom, and home insurance. Based on the results of a mail survey of a random sample of 458 household consumers, reliable measures were constructed of attitude towards switching supplier, loyalty to the incumbent, information search costs to compare suppliers, and expected economic benefits from switching. A negative attitude towards switching supplier was shown to increase with loyalty, increase with information search costs and decrease with expected economic benefits. Attitude towards switching was more negative in the electricity market than in the other markets and more negative in the landline telecom market than in the home insurance market. The differences between markets were accounted for by differences in loyalty, information search costs, and expected economic benefits.Deregulated markets Switching supplier Consumer attitudes

Judging From Experience: Experienced Sequences are Predicted Better Than Described Sequences.

When attempting to predict future events, people commonly rely on historical data. Events in a time series can be experienced sequentially (dynamic mode), as in learning about decisions from experience (e.g., Kusev et al., in press, JEP:HPP), or, as with learning about decisions from descriptions, they can also be retrospectively viewed holistically (static mode) – not experienced individually in real time. In one experiment, we studied the influence of presentation mode (dynamic and static) on three sorts of judgments: (i) predictions of the next event (forecast), (ii) estimation of the average value of all the events in the presented series (average) and (iii) judged satisfaction of workers given that the series represented their monthly income (satisfaction). Relative to the static mode participants‘ responses in dynamic mode were anchored on more recent events for all three types of judgments but with different consequences – hence dynamic presentation improved prediction accuracy, but not estimation

Meta-analysis of Icelandic and UK data sets identifies missense variants in SMO, IL11, COL11A1 and 13 more new loci associated with osteoarthritis.

To access publisher's full text version of this article click on the hyperlink belowOsteoarthritis has a highly negative impact on quality of life because of the associated pain and loss of joint function. Here we describe the largest meta-analysis so far of osteoarthritis of the hip and the knee in samples from Iceland and the UK Biobank (including 17,151 hip osteoarthritis patients, 23,877 knee osteoarthritis patients, and more than 562,000 controls). We found 23 independent associations at 22 loci in the additive meta-analyses, of which 16 of the loci were novel: 12 for hip and 4 for knee osteoarthritis. Two associations are between rare or low-frequency missense variants and hip osteoarthritis, affecting the genes SMO (rs143083812, frequency 0.11%, odds ratio (OR) = 2.8, P = 7.9 × 1