Decision Support for Mitigation of Livestock Disease: Rinderpest as a Case Study

A versatile, interactive model to predict geographically resolved epidemic progression after pathogen introduction into a population is presented. Deterministic simulations incorporating a compartmental disease model run rapidly, facilitating the analysis of mitigations such as vaccination and transmission reduction on epidemic spread and progression. We demonstrate the simulation model using rinderpest infection of cattle, a devastating livestock disease. Rinderpest has been extinguished in the wild, but it is still a threat due to stored virus in some laboratories. Comparison of simulations to historical outbreaks provides some validation of the model. Simulations of potential outbreaks demonstrate potential consequences of rinderpest virus release for a variety of possible disease parameters and mitigations. Our results indicate that a rinderpest outbreak could result in severe social and economic consequences

Perturbation Monte Carlo methods for tissue structure alterations

This paper describes an extension of the perturbation Monte Carlo method to model light transport when the phase function is arbitrarily perturbed. Current perturbation Monte Carlo methods allow perturbation of both the scattering and absorption coefficients, however, the phase function can not be varied. The more complex method we develop and test here is not limited in this way. We derive a rigorous perturbation Monte Carlo extension that can be applied to a large family of important biomedical light transport problems and demonstrate its greater computational efficiency compared with using conventional Monte Carlo simulations to produce forward transport problem solutions. The gains of the perturbation method occur because only a single baseline Monte Carlo simulation is needed to obtain forward solutions to other closely related problems whose input is described by perturbing one or more parameters from the input of the baseline problem. The new perturbation Monte Carlo methods are tested using tissue light scattering parameters relevant to epithelia where many tumors originate. The tissue model has parameters for the number density and average size of three classes of scatterers; whole nuclei, organelles such as lysosomes and mitochondria, and small particles such as ribosomes or large protein complexes. When these parameters or the wavelength is varied the scattering coefficient and the phase function vary. Perturbation calculations give accurate results over variations of ∼15–25% of the scattering parameters

Development of perturbation Monte Carlo methods for polarized light transport in a discrete particle scattering model.

We present a polarization-sensitive, transport-rigorous perturbation Monte Carlo (pMC) method to model the impact of optical property changes on reflectance measurements within a discrete particle scattering model. The model consists of three log-normally distributed populations of Mie scatterers that approximate biologically relevant cervical tissue properties. Our method provides reflectance estimates for perturbations across wavelength and/or scattering model parameters. We test our pMC model performance by perturbing across number densities and mean particle radii, and compare pMC reflectance estimates with those obtained from conventional Monte Carlo simulations. These tests allow us to explore different factors that control pMC performance and to evaluate the gains in computational efficiency that our pMC method provides

Distinguishing morphological changes with polarized light scattering

Results of work determining how different biological structures contribute to light scattering will be presented. Further, measurements of phantoms that mimic structural changes expected in vivo will be presented. It is found that polarized measurements can discriminate between phantoms with similar properties