An Interpretation of An Affine Term Structure Model for Chile

This paper attempts to provide an economic interpretation of the factors that drive the movements of interest rates of bonds of different maturities in a continuous-time no arbitrage term structure model for Chile. The dynamics of yields in the model are explained by two latent factors, namely the instantaneous short rate and its time-varying central tendency. The model estimates suggest that the short end of the yield curve is mainly driven by changes in first latent factor, while long-term interest rates are mainly explained by the second latent factor. Consequently, when examining movements in the term structure, one should think of at least two forces that hit the economy: temporary shocks that change short-term and medium-term interest rates by much larger amounts than long-term interest rates, causing changes in the slope of the yield curve; and long-lived innovations which have persistent effects on the level of the yield curve.Affine term structure model; yield curve; Kalman filter

A non-proposition-wise variant of majority voting for aggregating judgments

Majority voting is commonly used in aggregating judgments. The literature to date on judgment aggregation (JA) has focused primarily on proposition-wise majority voting (PMV). Given a set of issues on which a group is trying to make collective judgments, PMV aggregates individual judgments issue by issue, and satisfies a salient property of JA rules—independence. This paper introduces a variant of majority voting called holistic majority voting (HMV). This new variant also meets the condition of independence. However, instead of aggregating judgments issue by issue, it aggregates individual judgments en bloc. A salient and straightforward feature of HMV is that it guarantees the logical consistency of the propositions expressing collective judgments, provided that the individual points of view are consistent. This feature contrasts with the known inability of PMV to guarantee the consistency of the collective outcome. Analogously, while PMV may present a set of judgments that have been rejected by everyone in the group as collectively accepted, the collective judgments returned by HMV have been accepted by a majority of individuals in the group and, therefore, rejected by a minority of them at most. In addition, HMV satisfies a large set of appealing properties, as PMV also does. However, HMV may not return any complete proposition expressing the judgments of the group on all the issues at stake, even in cases where PMV does. Moreover, demanding completeness from HMV leads to impossibility results similar to the known impossibilities on PMV and on proposition-wise JA rules in genera

A pooling approach to judgment aggregation

The literature has focused on a particular way of aggregating judgments: Given a set of yes or no questions or issues, the individuals’ judgments are then aggregated separately, issue by issue. Applied in this way, the majority method does not guarantee the logical consistency of the set of judgments obtained. This fact has been the focus of critiques of the majority method and similar procedures. This paper focuses on another way of aggregating judgments. The main difference is that aggregation is made en bloc on all the issues at stake. The main consequence is that the majority method applied in this way does always guarantee the logical consistency of the collective judgments. Since it satisfies a large set of attractive properties, it should provide the basis for more positive assessment if applied using the proposed pooling approach than if used separately. The paper extends the analysis to the pooling supermajority and plurality rules, with similar result

Mariguano

Mariguano is a fictional account of a young man growing up in a family in whose patriarch is a Mexican drug lord. The narrator, el Johnny, and his father, Don Julio, crisscross through Mexico with total disregard for distance or time bribing comandantes and stopping turf wars all in preparation for their next score. The novel culminates in Don Julio’s attempt to fix the 1988 Presidential election in Mexico. Don Julio’s son, El Johnny, lives to tell the tale of the rise and fall of his father’s drug smuggling empire and of the destruction of his family. The events in the novel dramatize the origins of the current drug war in Mexico and help explain the escalation of violence on the border

Mariguano

This book is in many ways autobiographical, but at the same time attempts to tell the story of the many silent characters that have long been omitted from most works on border life. By “silent characters” I am referring to those who operate on the margins of a marginalized society. The reader will be allowed to glimpse inside the life of a social group that values silence and indifference as basic survival skills. It is this value on silence and indifference that have forced these stories to go unrecorded for so long. Aside from meeting my thesis requirements, it is my sincerest wish for this book to draw out similar stories from those who have shared these experiences so that an accurate and complete literary portrait of the Valley and its peoples can finally begin to take form