COMPAS - Copenhagen Model for Passenger Activity Scheduling

The focus of the paper resides in a description of the proposed structure for a travel demand model for Copenhagen (section 3). The model is named COMPAS, which is an acronym for Copenhagen Model for Passenger Activity Scheduling. COMPAS belongs to the family of activity based demand models that are theoretically superior to the conventional trip based demand models. These two groups of models are compared in a separate section of the article (section 2)

Application of Models based on Stated and Revealed Preference Data for Forecasting Danish International Freight Transport

Under the umbrella of TRANSFORSK '95 projects, TetraPlan AS has developed a mode choice model for Danish international freight transport. The objective of the model is to forecast the future demands for rail and sea transports relative to lorry transport, when supply variables change. To achieve the above goal a number of ideas are built in the model structure. These ideas are listed below:* To combine data in the model structure not only different in their nature, i.e., revealed and/vs. stated preference data, but also data collected in a number of independent domestic freight projects,* To include as many variables in the model structure, which can be found in the revealed preference data, and measure their importance in the fore-casts relative to transport costs and transport time, and* To find a method of how variables found only in the stated preference data can be used for the forecasting purposes

Values of travel time in the AKTA project

AKTA (http://www.akta-kbh.dk) is a research study under the EU-project PROGRESS (www.progress-project.org), which is part of the EU’s 5th framework programme named ‘The Growth Programme on Sustainable Mobility and Intermodality’. The programme supports several studies related to road pricing and similar subjects in traffic planning. PROGRESS includes eight European cities that research in different types of tolls. These cities are Bristol and Edinburgh (UK), Genoa and Rom (Italy), Helsinki (Finland), Trondheim (Norway), Gothenburg (Sweden) and Copenhagen. AKTA’s deadline is in autumn 2003, after a 31⁄2 year long project period. The budget in the study is about DKK 13.5 million. More about the project itself can be found in Nielsen & Herslund, 2002 and Nielsen & Jovicic, 2003. The aim of the paper is to present the obtained values of travel time (VOT) in the AKTA SP project. Basis for the VOT is Stated Preference (SP) data, which has been collected specifically for the purposes of the project. Three main effects are described in the paper: methodological effect; respondents’ perception of VOT based on presented travel costs versus travel distances in the SP experiments, theoretical effect; differences in the obtained VOT based on ordinary MNL models and Error Component (EC) models, and income effect; differences in the obtained VOT with and without the income effect. Section two describes AKTA’s SP survey. The following section depicts some important theoretical aspects of the VOT in logit models. Section four is the main part of the paper where the modelling work is presented. Concluding discussion and remarks are given in the last section

Evaluation of Some Important Quality Parameters in Long-distance Goods Transport: - results from a stated preference analysis

Luft- og støjforureningen og antallet af trafikulykker vil stige dramatisk i de kommende år som følge af flere og flere lastbiler på Europas veje. I følge officielle prognoser forventes det, at i år 2010 vil ca. 85% af den samlede godstransport inden for EU´s 15 medlemslande blive transporteret med lastbil mod ca. 50% i 1970 og ca. 70% i 1992.For at få vendt eller i det mindste bremset denne udvikling er det nødvendigt med en større viden om og forståelse af hvilke transportkvaliteter, de mere miljøvenlige transportformer som bane og søtransport, skal tilbyde for at kunne konkurrere med lastbilen. Transportkvalitetens betydning skal ses både fra transportkøbernes og transportudbydernes side.I studiet interviewes 140 transportkøbere og transportudbydere fordelt over hele landet. Det pc-baserede interviewskema inderholder to typer af spørgsmål: Rangordning og værdisætning af 8 på forhånd definerede kvalitetsparametre med udgangspunkt firmaets nuværende transportpolitik, og Hypotetiske spørgsmål (Stated Preference spil), hvor transportkvaliteterne grupperes med henblik på at definere forskellige transportalternativer. Det observeres, hvorledes respondenternes valg af alternativer skifter, når transportvilkårerne(kvaliteterne) ændres. I dette notat beskrives den anvendte metode og de foreløbige resultater af analyserne

Co-generation potentials of municipal solid waste landfills in Serbia

Waste management in Serbia is based on landfilling. As a result of many years of practice, a large number of municipal waste landfills has been created where landfill gas has been generated. Landfill gas, which is essentially methane (50- 55%), and CO2 (40-45%) (both green-house gases), have a great environmental impact which can be reduced by using landfill gas in cogeneration plants to produce energy. The aim of this paper is to determine economic and environmental benefits from such energy production. For that purpose, the database of cogeneration potentials of 51 landfills in Serbia was created. Amount of landfill gas generated at each municipal landfill was calculated by applying a first order decay equation which requires the data about solid waste production and composition and about some landfill characteristics. For all landfills, which have over 100,000 m3 each, a techno-economic analysis about building a combined heat and power plant was conducted. The results have shown, that the total investment in 14 combined heat and power plants with payback period of less than 7 years amounts 11,721,288 €. The total nominal power of these plants is 7 MW of electrical power and 7.9 MW of thermal power, and an average payback period is about 61 months. In addition, using landfill biogas as energy source in proposed plants would reduce methane emission for 161,000 tons of CO2 equivalent per year

En SP-analyse af bilisters tidsværdier, oplevet trængsel og roadpricing

I en række sammenhænge er fordele og ulemper ved Stated Preference (SP) og Revealed Prefe- rence (RP) interviewteknikker blevet diskuteret (se f.eks. Denstadli & Strand, 2001). Fordelen ved SP er – ud over at kunne klarlægge fremtidige alternativer, der ikke eksisterer i dag – bl.a. at respondenters præferencer hvad angår korrelerede variabler lettere kan estimeres. Dette skyldes, at man i SP-eksperimenter styrer de spørgsmål, der stilles respondenten, og derfor systematisk kan variere forholdet mellem de forskellige variabler for de alternativer, respondenten vælger imellem. Er en rute eksempelvis både hurtigst og kortest kan en bilists præferencer for tid versus længde derimod ikke klarlægges ud fra RP-data. Således vil kun nogle af observationerne i et RP-datasæt kunne estimere præferencer. Derudover er det kun muligt at få flere observationer per person i SP-eksperimenter, end i de fleste RP-data. Derimod rummer SP selvsagt det problem, at respondenterne ikke nødvendigvis agerer i virkeligheden, som de påstår under interviewet. Omfanget af dette problem samt SP-teknikkens følsomhed over for forskellige variabeldefinitioner er sjældent klarlagt

Experimental and artificial neural network approach for forecasting of traffic air pollution in urban areas: The case of subotica

In the recent years, artificial neural networks have been used to predict the concentrations of various gaseous pollutants in ambient air, mainly to forecast mean daily particle concentrations. The data on traffic air pollution, irrespective of whether they are obtained by measuring or modeling, represent an important starting point for planning effective measures to improve air quality in urban areas. The aim of this study was to develop a mathematical model for predicting daily concentrations of air pollution caused by the traffic in urban areas. For the model development, experimental data have been collected for 10 months, covering all four seasons. The data about hourly concentration levels of suspended particles with aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm (PM10) and meteorological data (temperature, air humidity, speed and direction of wind), measured at the measuring station in the town of Subotica from June 2008 to March 2009, served as the basis for developing an artificial neural networks based model for forecasting mean daily concentrations of PM10

Assessment of plastic flows and stocks in Serbia using material flow analysis

Material flow analysis was used to assess the amounts of plastic materials flows and stocks that are annually produced, consumed, imported, exported, collected, recycled, and disposed in the landfills in Serbia. The analysis revealed that approximately 269,000 tons of plastic materials are directly disposed in uncontrolled landfills in Serbia without any pretreatment, and that significant amounts of these materials have already accumulated in the landfills. The substantial amounts of land-filled plastics represent not only a loss of valuable recourses, but also pose a serious treat to the environment and human health, and if the trend of direct plastic land-filling is continued, Serbia will face with grave consequences

En mode for passageres rutevalg under hensyntagen til kapacitets- og regularitetsproblemer

I 1997 gennemgik Camilla Riff Brems ved Trafikdagene resultater fra rutevalgsmodeller i en række ofte brugte softwarepakker, herunder TRIPS og EMME/2. Konklusionen af denne gennemgang var dels, at modellerne gav foruroligende forskellige resultater, dels at resultaterne skyldte adfærdsmæssige antagelser, der implicit er indbygget i algoritmerne1. Nielsen (1998c) præsenterede en model, der i langt højere grad kunne estimeres ud fra rejsevaneundersøgelser, og dermed imødegå ovennævnte problemer. Imidlertid var der på daværende tidspunkt ikke empiriske undersøgelser, ud fra hvilke modellen kunne estimeres. I forbindelse med København-Ringsted Baneprojektet blev der i sommeren 1998 iværksat et større modelarbejde (Nielsen m.fl., 1999c), hvoraf trafikmodellen (Nielsen, m.fl., 1999d) er gennemført af Banestyrelsen Rådgivning med TetraPlan og Hague Consult som underrådgivere. En vigtig begrundelse for projektet er, at den eksisterende bane har store kapacitets- og regularitetsproblemer. Det var således vigtigt, at modellen kunne beskrive konsekvenser heraf