Population Vulnerability and Disability in Kenya's Tsetse Fly Habitats

The tsetse fly's influence on human health occurs through direct and indirect exposure pathways. Directly, the fly is a vector for the disease human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), which it spreads to nearly 18,000 new victims each year. Indirectly, the fly is a vector for African Animal Trypanosomaisis (AAT) also known as nagana, which restricts agricultural production, limiting the availability of food and contributing to impoverished conditions across rural sub-Saharan Africa. This historical study used 1999 census data to determine the prevalence of disability among residents and migrants living within Kenya's 7 tsetse fly belts. The results showed that the HAT transmission cycle may differ for residents and migrants with mechanisms leading to exposures that are environmentally driven for residents and economically driven for migrants. The combined burdens of HAT and AAT and the opportunity costs of agricultural production in AAT areas are potential contributors to disability within these tsetse-infested areas. Incorporating reports on disability from the national census appears to be an important surveillance tool that would enhance future HAT surveillance programs in sub-Saharan Africa

Understanding spatio-temporal variation of vegetation phenology and rainfall seasonality in the monsoon Southeast Asia

AbstractThe spatio-temporal characteristics of remote sensing are considered to be the primary advantage in environmental studies. With long-term and frequent satellite observations, it is possible to monitor changes in key biophysical attributes such as phenological characteristics, and relate them to climate change by examining their correlations. Although a number of remote sensing methods have been developed to quantify vegetation seasonal cycles using time-series of vegetation indices, there is limited effort to explore and monitor changes and trends of vegetation phenology in the Monsoon Southeast Asia, which is adversely affected by changes in the Asian monsoon climate. In this study, MODIS EVI and TRMM time series data, along with field survey data, were analyzed to quantify phenological patterns and trends in the Monsoon Southeast Asia during 2001–2010 period and assess their relationship with climate change in the region. The results revealed a great regional variability and inter-annual fluctuation in vegetation phenology. The phenological patterns varied spatially across the region and they were strongly correlated with climate variations and land use patterns. The overall phenological trends appeared to shift towards a later and slightly longer growing season up to 14 days from 2001 to 2010. Interestingly, the corresponding rainy season seemed to have started earlier and ended later, resulting in a slightly longer wet season extending up to 7 days, while the total amount of rainfall in the region decreased during the same time period. The phenological shifts and changes in vegetation growth appeared to be associated with climate events such as EL Niño in 2005. Furthermore, rainfall seemed to be the dominant force driving the phenological changes in naturally vegetated areas and rainfed croplands, whereas land use management was the key factor in irrigated agricultural areas

Evaluating Michigan's community hospital access: spatial methods for decision support

BACKGROUND: Community hospital placement is dictated by a diverse set of geographical factors and historical contingency. In the summer of 2004, a multi-organizational committee headed by the State of Michigan's Department of Community Health approached the authors of this paper with questions about how spatial analyses might be employed to develop a revised community hospital approval procedure. Three objectives were set. First, the committee needed visualizations of both the spatial pattern of Michigan's population and its 139 community hospitals. Second, the committee required a clear, defensible assessment methodology to quantify access to existing hospitals statewide, taking into account factors such as distance to nearest hospital and road network density to estimate travel time. Third, the committee wanted to contrast the spatial distribution of existing community hospitals with a theoretical configuration that best met statewide demand. This paper presents our efforts to first describe the distribution of Michigan's current community hospital pattern and its people, and second, develop two models, access-based and demand-based, to identify areas with inadequate access to existing hospitals. RESULTS: Using the product from the access-based model and contiguity and population criteria, two areas were identified as being "under-served." The lower area, located north/northeast of Detroit, contained the greater total land area and population of the two areas. The upper area was centered north of Grand Rapids. A demand-based model was applied to evaluate the existing facility arrangement by allocating daily bed demand in each ZIP code to the closest facility. We found 1,887 beds per day were demanded by ZIP centroids more than 16.1 kilometers from the nearest existing hospital. This represented 12.7% of the average statewide daily bed demand. If a 32.3 kilometer radius was employed, unmet demand dropped to 160 beds per day (1.1%). CONCLUSION: Both modeling approaches enable policymakers to identify under-served areas. Ultimately this paper is concerned with the intersection of spatial analysis and policymaking. Using the best scientific practice to identify locations of under-served populations based on many factors provides policymakers with a powerful tool for making good decisions

A methodology for projecting hospital bed need: a Michigan case study

Michigan's Department of Community Health (MDCH) is responsible for managing hospitals through the utilization of a Certificate of Need (CON) Commission. Regulation is achieved by limiting the number of beds a hospital can use for inpatient services. MDCH assigns hospitals to service areas and sub areas by use patterns. Hospital beds are then assigned within these Hospital Service Areas and Facility Sub Areas. The determination of the number of hospital beds a facility subarea is authorized to hold, called bed need, is defined in the Michigan Hospital Standards and published by the CON Commission and MDCH. These standards vaguely define a methodology for calculating hospital bed need for a projection year, five years ahead of the base year (defined as the most recent year for which patient data have been published by the Michigan Hospital Association). MDCH approached the authors and requested a reformulation of the process. Here we present a comprehensive guide and associated code as interpreted from the hospital standards with results from the 2011 projection year. Additionally, we discuss methodologies for other states and compare them to Michigan's Bed Need methodology

Exploring the benefits and challenges of establishing a DRI-like process for bioactives

Bioactives can be defined as: "Constituents in foods or dietary supplements, other than those needed to meet basic human nutritional needs, which are responsible for changes in health status" (Office of Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Office of Public Health and Science, Department of Health and Human Services in Fed Reg 69:55821-55822, 2004). Although traditional nutrients, such as vitamins, minerals, protein, essential fatty acids and essential amino acids, have dietary reference intake (DRI) values, there is no such evaluative process for bioactives. For certain classes of bioactives, substantial scientific evidence exists to validate a relationship between their intake and enhanced health conditions or reduced risk of disease. In addition, the study of bioactives and their relationship to disease risk is a growing area of research supported by government, academic institutions, and food and supplement manufacturers. Importantly, consumers are purchasing foods containing bioactives, yet there is no evaluative process in place to let the public know how strong the science is behind the benefits or the quantitative amounts needed to achieve these beneficial health effects. This conference, Bioactives: Qualitative Nutrient Reference Values for Life-stage Groups?, explored why it is important to have a DRI-like process for bioactives and challenges for establishing such a process.Fil: J. R. Lupton.Fil: S. A. Atkinson.Fil: N. Chang.Fil: Fraga, César Guillermo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Houssay. Instituto de Bioquímica y Medicina Molecular. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad Medicina. Instituto de Bioquímica y Medicina Molecular; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Farmacia y Bioquímica. Departamento de Química Analitica y Fisicoquímica. Cátedra de Fisicoquímica; ArgentinaFil: J. Levy.Fil: M. Messina.Fil: D. P. Richardson.Fil: B. van Ommen.Fil: Y. Yang.Fil: J. C. Griffiths.Fil: J. Hathcock

From meta-studies to modeling: Using synthesis knowledge to build broadly applicable process-based land change models

International audienceThis paper explores how meta-studies can support the development of process-based land change models (LCMs) that can be applied across locations and scales. We describe a multi-step framework for model development and provide descriptions and examples of how meta-studies can be used in each step. We conclude that meta-studies best support the conceptualization and experimentation phases of the model development cycle, but cannot typically provide full model parameterizations. Moreover, meta-studies are particularly useful for developing agent-based LCMs that can be applied across a wide range of contexts, locations, and/or scales, because meta-studies provide both quantitative and qualitativedata needed to derive agent behaviors more readily than from case study or aggregate data sources alone. Recent land change synthesis studies provide sufficient topical breadth and depth to support the development of broadly applicable process-based LCMs, as well as the potential to accelerate the production of generalized knowledge through model-driven synthesis

A Landscape and Climate Data Logistic Model of Tsetse Distribution in Kenya

, biologically transmitted by the tsetse fly in Africa, are a major cause of illness resulting in both high morbidity and mortality among humans, cattle, wild ungulates, and other species. However, tsetse fly distributions change rapidly due to environmental changes, and fine-scale distribution maps are few. Due to data scarcity, most presence/absence estimates in Kenya prior to 2000 are a combination of local reports, entomological knowledge, and topographic information. The availability of tsetse fly abundance data are limited, or at least have not been collected into aggregate, publicly available national datasets. Despite this limitation, other avenues exist for estimating tsetse distributions including remotely sensed data, climate information, and statistical tools.Here we present a logistic regression model of tsetse abundance. The goal of this model is to estimate the distribution of tsetse fly in Kenya in the year 2000, and to provide a method by which to anticipate their future distribution. Multiple predictor variables were tested for significance and for predictive power; ultimately, a parsimonious subset of variables was identified and used to construct the regression model with the 1973 tsetse map. These data were validated against year 2000 Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates. Mapcurves Goodness-Of-Fit scores were used to evaluate the modeled fly distribution against FAO estimates and against 1973 presence/absence data, each driven by appropriate climate data.Logistic regression can be effectively used to produce a model that projects fly abundance under elevated greenhouse gas scenarios. This model identifies potential areas for tsetse abandonment and expansion

Drought Severity and Frequency Analysis Aided by Spectral and Meteorological Indices in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq

In the past two decades, severe drought has been a recurrent problem in Iraq due in part to climate change. Additionally, the catastrophic drop in the discharge of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers and their tributaries has aggravated the drought situation in Iraq, which was formerly one of the most water-rich nations in the Middle East. The Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) also has catastrophic drought conditions. This study analyzed a Landsat time-series dataset from 1998 to 2021 to determine the drought severity status in the KRI. The Modified Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (MSAVI2) and Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) were used as spectral-based drought indices to evaluate the severity of the drought and study the changes in vegetative cover, water bodies, and precipitation. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Spatial Coefficient of Variation (CV) were used as meteorologically based drought indices. According to this study, the study area had precipitation deficits and severe droughts in 2000, 2008, 2012, and 2021. The MSAVI2 results indicated that the vegetative cover decreased by 36.4%, 39.8%, and 46.3% in 2000, 2008, and 2012, respectively. The SPI’s results indicated that the KRI experienced droughts in 1999, 2000, 2008, 2009, 2012, and 2021, while the southeastern part of the KRI was most affected by drought in 2008. In 2012, the KRI’s western and southern parts were also considerably affected by drought. Furthermore, Lake Dukan (LD), which lost 63.9% of its surface area in 1999, experienced the most remarkable shrinkage among water bodies. Analysis of the geographic distribution of the CV of annual precipitation indicated that the northeastern parts, which get much more precipitation, had less spatial rainfall variability and more uniform distribution throughout the year than other areas. Moreover, the southwest parts exhibited a higher fluctuation in annual spatial variation. There was a statistically significant positive correlation between MSAVI2, SPI, NDWI, and agricultural yield-based vegetation cover. The results also revealed that low precipitation rates are always associated with declining crop yields and LD shrinkage. These findings may be concluded to provide policymakers in the KRI with a scientific foundation for agricultural preservation and drought mitigation