Association between carpal tunnel syndrome and the five-year incidence of anxiety disorder and depression in adults followed in general practices in Germany

ObjectiveLittle is known about the longitudinal relationship between carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) and mental health. Therefore, this retrospective cohort study investigated the association between CTS and the five-year incidence of anxiety disorder and depression in adults from Germany.MethodsData from the Disease Analyzer database (IQVIA) were used for the present study. Patients aged ≥18 years diagnosed for the first time with CTS in one of 1284 general practices in Germany in 2005–2020 were included (index date). Individuals without CTS were matched to those with CTS using a propensity score based on age, sex, the mean number of consultations per year during the follow-up, and the index year. In people without CTS, the index date was a randomly selected consultation in 2005–2020.ResultsThere were 75,135 patients with and 75,135 patients without CTS included in the study (mean [SD] age 57.2 [16.5] years; 59.7% women). Within five years of the index date, the incidence of anxiety disorder was 3.9% and 3.6% in the group with and the group without CTS, respectively (log-rank p-valueConclusionCTS was associated with an increased incidence of anxiety disorder and depression in Germany. Further research should identify the mediators involved in these relationships.</p

Is there an association between breast cancer and incident adhesive capsulitis of the shoulder? A retrospective cohort study from Germany

Purpose Preliminary data suggest that women with breast cancer are at particularly high risk of adhesive capsulitis of the shoulder. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the potential association between breast cancer and adhesive capsulitis in adults from Germany. Methods This retrospective cohort study included all women aged ≥ 18 years who were diagnosed for the first time with breast cancer in one of 1,274 general practices in Germany between January 2000 and December 2018 (index date). Women without breast cancer were matched (1:1) to those with breast cancer using a propensity score based on age at the index date, index year, and the average number of medical consultations per year during the follow-up. In women without breast cancer, the index date was a randomly selected visit date between 2000 and 2018. The association between breast cancer and the 10-year incidence of adhesive capsulitis was studied using Kaplan–Meier curves and a Cox regression model adjusted for age and several comorbidities. Results There were 52,524 women included in this study (mean [SD] age 64.2 [12.9] years). The 10-year incidence of adhesive capsulitis was 3.6% in both the group with and the group without breast cancer (log-rank p-value = 0.317). The Cox regression analysis further showed no significant association between breast cancer and adhesive capsulitis (HR = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.86–1.08). Conclusion In this sample of women from Germany, breast cancer was not significantly associated with adhesive capsulitis. Although the present preliminary findings are reassuring, general practitioners should regularly assess shoulder function in breast cancer survivors

Falls increase the risk for incident anxiety and depressive symptoms among adults aged ≥50 years: an analysis of the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing

Background: Little is known about the potential impact of falls on the onset of common mental disorders in older adults. Thus, we aimed to investigate the longitudinal association between falls and incident anxiety and depressive symptoms in adults aged ≥50 years living in Ireland. Methods: Data from the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing were analyzed (Wave 1: 2009–2011; and Wave 2: 2012–2013). The presence of falls and injurious falls in the past 12 months was assessed at Wave 1. Anxiety and depressive symptoms were assessed at Wave 1 and Wave 2 using the anxiety subscale of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS-A) and the 20-item Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression (CES-D), respectively. Covariates included sex, age, education, marital status, disability, and the number of chronic physical conditions. The association of falls at baseline with incident anxiety and depressive symptoms at follow-up was estimated by multivariable logistic regression. Results: This study included 6,862 individuals (51.5% women; mean [SD] age 63.1 [8.9] years). After adjusting for covariates, falls were significantly associated with anxiety (OR = 1.58, 95%CI = 1.06–2.35) and depressive symptoms (OR = 1.43, 95%CI = 1.06–1.92). These associations were no longer significant after including fear of falling in the models. Similar findings were obtained for injurious falls, although the relationship with anxiety symptoms was not statistically significant. Conclusions: This prospective study of older adults from Ireland found significant associations between falls and incident anxiety and depressive symptoms. Future research may focus on whether interventions to reduce fear of falling could also alleviate anxiety and depressive symptoms

Chronic Low Back Pain and Incident Transient Ischemic Attack and Stroke in General Practices in Germany

The aim was to investigate the association between chronic low back pain (CLBP) and 18 incident transient ischemic attack (TIA) and stroke in Germany. The present retrospective cohort 19 study included adults aged ≥18 years who were diagnosed for the first time with CLBP in one of 20 1,198 general practices in Germany in 2005-2019 (index date). Patients without CLBP were matched 21 to those with CLBP (1:1) using a propensity score based on age, sex, the index year, the number of 22 medical consultations per year during the follow-up, and the number of years of follow-up. In pa-23 tients without CLBP, the index date was a randomly selected visit date. Both groups were followed 24 for up to 10 years. There were 159,440 patients included in the study [mean (SD) age 52.1 (16.5) 25 years; 51.5% women]. Within 10 years of the index date, 6.5% and 5.9% of patients with and without 26 CLBP were diagnosed with TIA or stroke, respectively (log-rank p-value<0.001). The Cox regression 27 analysis corroborated these results, as there was a significant association between CLBP and inci-28 dent TIA or stroke (HR=1.28, 95% CI=1.22-1.35). CLBP was positively and significantly associated 29 with incident TIA and stroke in Germany. More research is warranted to better understand this 30 relationship

Longitudinal modeling of depression shifts using speech and language

Speech analysis can provide a potential non-invasive and objective means of assessing and monitoring an individual’s mental health. Most studies to date have focused on cross-sectional analysis and have not explored the benefits of speech analysis as a longitudinal monitoring tool that can assist in the management of chronic conditions such as major depressive disorder (MDD). Objectively monitoring for shifts in depression symptom severity levels over time presents a notable challenge, which we address through an automated approach using longitudinal English and Spanish speech samples collected from a clinical population. We employ time–frequency representations and linguistic embeddings to enhance the early recognition of alterations in depression levels in individuals with MDD. We investigate the suitability of using siamese-based training for modeling these changes, intending to enable personalized and adaptive interventions.</p

Temporal Trends in Bullying Victimization Among Adolescents Aged 12–15 Years From 29 Countries: A Global Perspective

Purpose Bullying victimization among adolescents is a major public health concern. However, multicountry studies investigating temporal trends of bullying victimization among adolescents are scarce, especially from a global perspective. Thus, we aimed to examine the temporal trends of bullying victimization among school-going adolescents between 2003 and 2017 in 29 countries from Africa (n = 5), Asia (n = 18), and the Americas (n = 6). Methods Data on 191,228 students aged 12–15 years [mean (standard deviation) age 13.7 (1.0) years; 48.9% boys] who participated in the Global School-based Student Health Survey were analyzed. Bullying victimization was based on self-report and referred to being bullied at least once in the past 30 days. The prevalence (95% confidence interval) of bullying victimization was calculated for each survey. Crude linear trends in bullying victimization were examined by linear regression models. Results The mean prevalence of bullying victimization across all surveys was 39.4%. There was a large variation in the trends of bullying victimization across countries with a significant increasing and decreasing trend being observed in 6 and 13 countries, respectively. Myanmar, Egypt, and the Philippines showed the sharpest increase. The decrease was modest in most countries which showed a decreasing trend. The remaining countries showed stable trends (n = 10) but some countries such as Seychelles showed consistently high prevalence over time (i.e., ≥ 50%). Discussion Decreasing trends of bullying victimization were more common than increasing or stable trends in our study including adolescents from 29 countries. However, a high prevalence of bullying was observed in most countries, and thus, further global efforts to combat bullying victimization are necessary

Dynapenic abdominal obesity increases risk for falls among adults aged ≥50 years: a prospective analysis of the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing

Background There is a scarcity of studies examining the longitudinal relationship between dynapenic abdominal obesity (DAO; ie, impairment in muscle strength and high waist circumference) and future fall risk. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the prospective association between DAO at baseline and falls occurring during 2 years of follow-up in a nationally representative sample of middle-aged and older individuals from Ireland. Methods Data from 2 consecutive waves of the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing survey were analyzed. Dynapenia was defined as handgrip strength of 88 cm for women and >102 cm for men. DAO was assessed at Wave 1 (2009–2011) and was defined as having both dynapenia and abdominal obesity. Falls occurring between Wave 1 and Wave 2 (2012–2013) were self-reported. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted. Results Data on 5 275 individuals aged ≥50 years were analyzed (mean [standard deviation {SD}] age 63.2 [8.9] years; 48.8% males). After adjustment for potential confounders, compared to no dynapenia and no abdominal obesity at baseline, DAO was significantly associated with 1.47 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.14–1.89) times higher odds for falls at 2-year follow-up. Dynapenia alone (odds ratio [OR] = 1.08; 95% CI: 0.84–1.40) and abdominal obesity alone (OR = 1.09; 95% CI: 0.91–1.29) were not significantly associated with falls at follow-up. Conclusions DAO increased the risk for falls among middle-aged and older adults in Ireland. Interventions to prevent or reverse DAO may be beneficial for fall reduction

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundFuture trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.MethodsUsing forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.FindingsIn the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]).InterpretationGlobally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.</p

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundAccurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.MethodsTo estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.FindingsDuring the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.InterpretationFertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.</p