External Validation of a Risk Score Model for Predicting Major Clinical Events in Adults After Atrial Switch

BACKGROUND: A risk model has been proposed to provide a patient individualized estimation of risk for major clinical events (heart failure events, ventricular arrhythmia, all-cause mortality) in patients with transposition of the great arteries and atrial switch surgery. We aimed to externally validate the model. METHODS AND RESULTS: A retrospective, multicentric, longitudinal cohort of 417 patients with transposition of the great arteries (median age, 24 years at baseline [interquartile range, 18-30]; 63% men) independent of the model development and internal validation cohort was studied. The performance of the prediction model in predicting risk at 5 years was assessed, and additional predictors of major clinical events were evaluated separately in our cohort. Twenty-five patients (5.9%) met the major clinical events end point within 5 years. Model validation showed good discrimination between high and low 5-year risk patients (Harrell C index of 0.73 [95% CI, 0.65-0.81]) but tended to overestimate this risk (calibration slope of 0.20 [95% CI, 0.03-0.36]). In our population, the strongest independent predictors of major clinical events were a history of heart failure and at least mild impairment of the subpulmonary left ventricle function. CONCLUSIONS: We reported the first external validation of a major clinical events risk model in a large cohort of adults with transposition of the great arteries. The model allows for distinguishing patients at low risk from those at intermediate to high risk. Previous episode of heart failure and subpulmonary left ventricle dysfunction appear to be key markers in the prognosis of patients. Further optimizing risk models are needed to individualize risk predictions in patients with transposition of the great arteries.</p

External Validation of a Risk Score Model for Predicting Major Clinical Events in Adults After Atrial Switch

BACKGROUND: A risk model has been proposed to provide a patient individualized estimation of risk for major clinical events (heart failure events, ventricular arrhythmia, all-cause mortality) in patients with transposition of the great arteries and atrial switch surgery. We aimed to externally validate the model. METHODS AND RESULTS: A retrospective, multicentric, longitudinal cohort of 417 patients with transposition of the great arteries (median age, 24 years at baseline [interquartile range, 18-30]; 63% men) independent of the model development and internal validation cohort was studied. The performance of the prediction model in predicting risk at 5 years was assessed, and additional predictors of major clinical events were evaluated separately in our cohort. Twenty-five patients (5.9%) met the major clinical events end point within 5 years. Model validation showed good discrimination between high and low 5-year risk patients (Harrell C index of 0.73 [95% CI, 0.65-0.81]) but tended to overestimate this risk (calibration slope of 0.20 [95% CI, 0.03-0.36]). In our population, the strongest independent predictors of major clinical events were a history of heart failure and at least mild impairment of the subpulmonary left ventricle function. CONCLUSIONS: We reported the first external validation of a major clinical events risk model in a large cohort of adults with transposition of the great arteries. The model allows for distinguishing patients at low risk from those at intermediate to high risk. Previous episode of heart failure and subpulmonary left ventricle dysfunction appear to be key markers in the prognosis of patients. Further optimizing risk models are needed to individualize risk predictions in patients with transposition of the great arteries.</p

Clonal chromosomal mosaicism and loss of chromosome Y in elderly men increase vulnerability for SARS-CoV-2

The pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19) had an estimated overall case fatality ratio of 1.38% (pre-vaccination), being 53% higher in males and increasing exponentially with age. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, we found 133 cases (1.42%) with detectable clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations (mCA) and 226 males (5.08%) with acquired loss of chromosome Y (LOY). Individuals with clonal mosaic events (mCA and/or LOY) showed a 54% increase in the risk of COVID-19 lethality. LOY is associated with transcriptomic biomarkers of immune dysfunction, pro-coagulation activity and cardiovascular risk. Interferon-induced genes involved in the initial immune response to SARS-CoV-2 are also down-regulated in LOY. Thus, mCA and LOY underlie at least part of the sex-biased severity and mortality of COVID-19 in aging patients. Given its potential therapeutic and prognostic relevance, evaluation of clonal mosaicism should be implemented as biomarker of COVID-19 severity in elderly people. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, individuals with clonal mosaic events (clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations and/or loss of chromosome Y) showed an increased risk of COVID-19 lethality

Natural History and Clinical Predictors of Atrial Tachycardia in Adults With Congenital Heart Disease

BACKGROUND: Atrial tachycardias (ATs) are a significant source of morbidity in adults with congenital heart disease (CHD). This study evaluates the incidence and clinical predictors of AT in a cohort of patients with CHD.METHODS AND RESULTS: We included 3311 adults (median age at entry 22.6 years, 50.6% males) with CHD (49% simple, 39% moderate, and 12% complex) prospectively followed up in a tertiary center for 37 607 person-years. Predictors of AT were identified by multivariable Cox regression analysis accounting for left truncation. An external validation was performed in a contemporary cohort of 1432 patients. Overall, 153 (4.6%) patients presented AT. AT burden was highest in complex CHD, such as single ventricle (22.8%) and D-transposition of the great arteries (22.1%). Hazard rates of AT across lifetime, age at presentation, and the time lapse between surgery and the first AT episode varied among the most common CHD. Independent risk factors for developing AT were univentricular physiology, previous intracardiac repair, systemic right ventricle, pulmonary hypertension, pulmonary regurgitation, pulmonary atrioventricular valve regurgitation, pulmonary and systemic ventricular dysfunction. At the age of 40 years, AT-free survival in patients with 0, 1, 2, and >= 3 risk factors was 100%, 94%, 76%, and 50%, respectively. These findings were confirmed in the validation cohort.CONCLUSIONS: Natural history of AT differed among the most common forms of CHD. Simple clinical parameters, easily obtained by noninvasive means, were independent predictors of AT in adults with CHD. Although risk was negligible in patients without any of these factors, their addition progressively increased AT burden

A new score for life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in adults with transposition of the great arteries and a systemic right ventricle

AIMS: To investigate the incidence of major adverse ventricular arrhythmias and related events (MAREs) and to develop a stratification tool predicting MAREs in adults with a systemic right ventricle (sRV). METHODS AND RESULTS: In a multicentre approach, all adults (≥16 years old) with a sRV undergoing follow-up between 2000 and 2018 were identified. The incidence of MAREs, defined as sudden cardiac death, sustained ventricular tachycardia, and appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy, was analysed. The association of MAREs with clinical, electrical, and echocardiographic parameters was evaluated. A total of 1184 patients (median age 27.1 years; interquartile range 19.9-34.9 years; 59% male; 70% with atrial switch repair for D-transposition of the great arteries) were included. The incidence of MAREs was 6.3 per 1000 patient-years. On multivariate analysis, age, history of heart failure, syncope, QRS duration, severe sRV dysfunction and at least moderate left ventricular outflow tract obstruction were retained in the final model with a C-index of 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.72-0.83] and a calibration slope of 0.93 (95% CI 0.64-1.21). For every five ICDs implanted in patients with a 5-year MARE risk >10%, one patient may potentially be spared from a MARE. CONCLUSION: Sudden cardiac death remains a devastating cause of death in a contemporary adult cohort with a sRV. A prediction model based on clinical, electrocardiographic, and echocardiographic parameters was devised to estimate MARE risk and to identify high-risk patients who may benefit from primary prevention ICD implantation