The pattern of growth and poverty reduction in China

China has seen a huge reduction in the incidence of extreme poverty since the economic reforms that started in the late 1970s. Yet, the growth process has been highly uneven across sectors and regions. The paper tests whether the pattern of China´s growth mattered to poverty reduction using a new provincial panel data set constructed for this purpose. The econometric tests support the view that the primary sector (mainly agriculture) has been the main driving force in poverty reduction over the period since 1980. It was the sectoral unevenness in the growth process, rather than its geographic unevenness, that handicapped poverty reduction. Yes, China has had great success in reducing poverty through economic growth, but this happened despite the unevenness in its sectoral pattern of growth. The idea of a trade-off between these sectors in terms of overall progress against poverty in China turns out to be a moot point, given how little evidence there is of any poverty impact of non-primary sector growth, controlling for primary-sector growth. While the non-primary sectors were key drivers of aggregate growth, it was the primary sector that did the heavy lifting against poverty.Rural Poverty Reduction,Achieving Shared Growth,Regional Economic Development,Subnational Economic Development

Spain has reason to be concerned at its latest unemployment figures

Spain has suffered from a persistent unemployment problem since the financial crisis, with the unemployment rate remaining stubbornly above 20 per cent. Jose G. Montalvo writes on the release of the latest Spanish unemployment figures, which saw the unemployment rate increase in the first quarter of 2015. He notes that while the latest figures have to be put against the backdrop of an overall reduction in unemployment during the last two years, there are nevertheless strong reasons for concern over the future trajectory of the Spanish labour market

Ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars

The authors analyze the relationship between ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars. Several recent papers have argued that the uncertainty about the relative power of the contenders in a war will tend to increase its duration. In these models, uncertainty is directly related to the relative size of the contenders. The authors argue that the duration of civil wars increases the more polarized a society is. Uncertainty is not necessarily linked to the structure of the population but it could be traced back to the measurement of the size of the different groups in the society. Given a specific level of measurement error or uncertainty, more polarization implies lengthier wars. The empirical results show that ethnically polarized countries have to endure longer civil wars than ethnically less polarized societies.Social Conflict and Violence,Population Policies,Peace&Peacekeeping,Post Conflict Reintegration,Services&Transfers to Poor

Finite Mixture Analysis of Beauty-Contest Data from Multiple Samples

This paper develops a finite mixture distribution analysis of Beauty- Contest data obtained from diverse groups of experiments. ML estimation using the EM approach provides estimates for the means and variances of the component distributions, which are common to all the groups, and estimates of the mixing proportions, which are specific to each group. This estimation is performed without imposing constraints on the parameters of the composing distributions. The statistical analysis indicates that many individuals follow a common pattern of reasoning described as iterated best reply (degenerate), and shows that the proportions of people thinking at different levels of depth vary across groups.Beauty-Contest experiments, reasoning hierarchy, finite mixture distribution, EM algorithm

Who Wants to Work in a Rural Health Post? The Role of Intrinsic Motivation, Rural Background and Faith-Based Institutions in Rwanda and Ethiopia

Most developing countries face shortages of health workers in rural areas. This has profound consequences for health service delivery, and ultimately for health outcomes. To design policies that rectify these geographic imbalances it is vital to understand what factors determine health workers' choice to work in rural areas. But empirical analysis of health worker preferences has remained limited due to the lack of data. Using unique contingent valuation data from a cohort survey of 412 nursing and medical students in Rwanda, this paper examines the determinants of future health workers' willingness to work in rural areas, as measured by rural reservation wages, using regression analysis. These data are also combined with those from an identical survey in Ethiopia to enable a two-country analysis. We find that health workers with higher intrinsic motivation – measured as the importance attached to helping the poor – as well as those who have grown up in a rural area, and Adventists who participate in a local bonding scheme are all significantly more willing to work in a rural area. The main Rwanda result for intrinsic motivation is strikingly similar to that obtained for Ethiopia and Rwanda together. These results suggest that in addition to economic incentives, intrinsic motivation and rural origin play an important role in health workers' decisions to work in a rural area, and that faith-based institutions matter.health care delivery, health workers, labour supply, public service

Who Wants to Work in a Rural Health Post? The Role of Intrinsic Motivation, Rural Background and Faith-Based Institutions in Rwanda and Ethiopia

Background: Most developing countries face shortages of health workers in rural areas. This has profound consequences for health service delivery, and ultimately for health outcomes. To design policies that rectify these geographic imbalances it is vital to understand what factors determine health workers’ choice to work in rural areas. But empirical analysis of health worker preferences has remained limited due to the lack of data. Methods: Using unique contingent valuation data from a cohort survey of 412 nursing and medical students in Rwanda, this paper examines the determinants of future health workers’ willingness to work in rural areas, as measured by rural reservation wages, using regression analysis. These data are also combined with those from an identical survey in Ethiopia to enable a two-country analysis. Results: Health workers with higher intrinsic motivation - measured as the importance attached to helping the poor - as well as those who have grown up in a rural area, and Adventists who participate in a local bonding scheme are all significantly more willing to work in a rural area. The main Rwanda result for intrinsic motivation is strikingly similar to that obtained for Ethiopia and Rwanda together. Discussion: The results suggest that in addition to economic incentives, intrinsic motivation and rural origin play an important role in health workers’ decisions to work in a rural area, and that faith-based institutions matter.