ESTIMATING THE SYSTEM ORDER BY SUBSPACE METHODS

This paper discusses how to determine the order of a state-space model. To do so, we start by revising existing approaches and find in them three basic shortcomings: i) some of them have a poor performance in short samples, ii) most of them are not robust and iii) none of them can accommodate seasonality. We tackle the first two issues by proposing new and refined criteria. The third issue is dealt with by decomposing the system into regular and seasonal sub-systems. The performance of all the procedures considered is analyzed through Monte Carlo simulations.

Concurs de projectes per a la redacció del projecte bàsic i executiu i la posterior direcció de les obres i coordinació de seguretat i salut, per a la construcció dels nous vestidors del camp d’esports municipal

Segon premiPostprint (published version

Mortality of NBA Players: risk factors and comparison with the general US population

Concerns have been raised recently by players’ associations regarding the risk of death among retired players. Using a retrospective cohort study, we analyzed factors associated with the mortality of National Basketball Association (NBA) players and compared their life expectancy with that of the general population. We analyzed a cohort of 3985 players who participated in the NBA from its inception in 1946 to April 2015 (481 active and 3504 former players). We used the data for the 3504 former NBA players, of whom 687 (19.1%) died before 15 April 2015, to study the elapsed time between the end of their NBA careers until death. Cox proportional hazards models were employed in the multivariate survival analysis. After adjusting for age at the end of the NBA career and calendar year, we found that mortality is associated with height and ethnicity. Taller players and African-American players had a higher instantaneous risk of death than shorter players or white players. In addition, the life expectancy of players (regardless of height and ethnicity) has increased since the inception of the NBA. This is one of the first studies using such an extensive cohort of professional basketball players and Cox proportional hazards models. Results confirmed that height is associated with mortality. In addition, ethnicity is also linked to mortality; white players and small players live longer. Our study is useful for devising strategies for health interventions and the proper allocation of resources with respect to the general population.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

The vulnerability of Pyrenean ski resorts to climate-induced changes in the snowpack

Winter tourism is the main source of income and the driving force of local development in many mountain areas. However, in recent years, the industry has been identified as being extremely vulnerable to future climate change. Although the Pyrenees has the largest ski area in Europe after the Alps, there are few detailed climate change vulnerability assessments on the ski resorts based in this region. This paper analyzes the vulnerability of the Pyrenean ski resorts to projected changes in the snowpack under various future climate scenarios. In addition, the study analyzes the sustainability of the snowmaking systems to offset the climate variability of natural snow cover. On average, the study predicts a shorter ski-season length, especially in low-altitude ski resorts in a moderate climate change scenario and for all ski resorts in a more intensive climate change scenario. However, a significant regional variability has been identified for the projected impacts at very short geographical distances within the studied area. Moreover, this paper shows that snowmaking cannot completely solve the problem for all ski resorts in the Pyrenees, as the measure can only act as a robust adaptation strategy in the region provided climate change is limited to +2 °C snowmaking.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author’s final draft

Informe sobre los estudios realizados sobre las lesiones que afectan a diferentes elementos constructivos del Palacio de San Esteban, Murcia, y sobre la inspección efectuada sobre el mismo

Preprin

Managing the Next Wave of Influenza and/or SARS-CoV-2 in the ICU—Practical Recommendations from an Expert Group for CAPA/IAPA Patients

COVID-19; Critical patients; Intensive care unitCOVID-19; Pacientes críticos; Unidad de cuidados intensivosCOVID-19; Pacients crítics; Unitat de cures intensivesThe aim of this study was to establish practical recommendations for the diagnosis and treatment of influenza-associated invasive aspergillosis (IAPA) based on the available evidence and experience acquired in the management of patients with COVID-19-associated pulmonary aspergillosis (CAPA). The CAPA/IAPA expert group defined 14 areas in which recommendations would be made. To search for evidence, the PICO strategy was used for both CAPA and IAPA in PubMed, using MeSH terms in combination with free text. Based on the results, each expert developed recommendations for two to three areas that they presented to the rest of the group in various meetings in order to reach consensus. As results, the practical recommendations for the management of CAPA/IAPA patients have been grouped into 12 sections. These recommendations are presented for both entities in the following situations: when to suspect fungal infection; what diagnostic methods are useful to diagnose these two entities; what treatment is recommended; what to do in case of resistance; drug interactions or determination of antifungal levels; how to monitor treatment effectiveness; what action to take in the event of treatment failure; the implications of concomitant corticosteroid administration; indications for the combined use of antifungals; when to withdraw treatment; what to do in case of positive cultures for Aspergillus spp. in a patient with severe viral pneumonia or Aspergillus colonization; and how to position antifungal prophylaxis in these patients. Available evidence to support the practical management of CAPA/IAPA patients is very scarce. Accumulated experience acquired in the management of CAPA patients can be very useful for the management of IAPA patients. The expert group presents eminently practical recommendations for the management of CAPA/IAPA patients

Enfermedades autoinmunes sistémicas en pacientes con infección por el virus de la hepatitis C: caracterización de 1020 casos (Registro HISPAMEC).

Objective. To describe the clinical and immunologic characteristics of a large series of patients with systemic autoimmune diseases (SAD) associated with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Methods. The HISPAMEC Registry is a multicenter international study group dedicated to collecting data on patients diagnosed with SAD with serological evidence of chronic HCV infection. The information sources are cases reported by physicians of the HISPAMEC Study Group and periodic surveillance of reported cases by a Medline search updated up to December 31, 2007. Results. One thousand twenty HCV patients with SAD were included in the registry. Patients were reported from Southern Europe (60%), North America (15%), Asia (14%), Northern Europe (9%), South America (1%), and Australia (1%). Countries reporting the most cases were Spain (236 cases), France (222 cases), Italy (144 cases), USA (120 cases), and Japan (95 cases). The most frequently reported SAD were Sjögren’s syndrome (SS; 483 cases), rheumatoid arthritis (RA; 150 cases), systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE; 129 cases), polyarteritis nodosa (78 cases), antiphospholipid syndrome (59 cases), inflammatory myopathies (39 cases), and sarcoidosis (28 cases). Twenty patients had 2 or more SAD. Epidemiological data were available in 677 cases. Four hundred eighty-seven (72%) patients were female and 186 (28%) male, with a mean age of 49.5 ± 1.0 years at SAD diagnosis and 50.5 ± 1.1 years at diagnosis of HCV infection. The main immunologic features were antinuclear antibody (ANA) in 61% of patients, rheumatoid factor (RF) in 57%, hypocomplementemia in 52%, and cryoglobulins in 52%. The main differential aspect between primary and HCV-related SAD was the predominance of cryoglobulinemic-related markers (cryoglobulins, RF, hypocomplementemia) over specific SAD-related markers (anti-ENA antibodies, anti-dsDNA, anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide) in patients with HCV. Conclusion. In the selected cohort, the SAD most commonly reported in association with chronic HCV infection were SS (nearly half the cases), RA and SLE. Nearly two thirds of SAD-HCV cases were reported from the Mediterranean area. In these patients, ANA, RF and cryoglobulins are the predominant immunological features. (First Release April 15 2009; J Rheumatol 2009;36:1442–8; doi:10.3899/jrheum.080874)

European traditional tomatoes galore: a result of farmers' selection of a few diversity-rich loci

A comprehensive collection of 1254 tomato accessions, corresponding to European traditional and modern varieties, early domesticated varieties, and wild relatives, was analyzed by genotyping by sequencing. A continuous genetic gradient between the traditional and modern varieties was observed. European traditional tomatoes displayed very low genetic diversity, with only 298 polymorphic loci (95% threshold) out of 64 943 total variants. European traditional tomatoes could be classified into several genetic groups. Two main clusters consisting of Spanish and Italian accessions showed higher genetic diversity than the remaining varieties, suggesting that these regions might be independent secondary centers of diversity with a different history. Other varieties seem to be the result of a more recent complex pattern of migrations and hybridizations among the European regions. Several polymorphic loci were associated in a genome-wide association study with fruit morphological traits in the European traditional collection. The corresponding alleles were found to contribute to the distinctive phenotypic characteristic of the genetic varietal groups. The few highly polymorphic loci associated with morphological traits in an otherwise a low-diversity population suggests a history of balancing selection, in which tomato farmers likely maintained the morphological variation by inadvertently applying a high selective pressure within different varietal types