The World Bank's Unified Survey projections : how accurate are they? an ex-post evaluation of US91-US97

Since 1984, the Unified Survey has been the World Bank's principle mechanism for gathering quantitative macroeconomic information from country teams on Bank member countries. After gathering annual data those teams also do most-likely-scenario projections. The author examines the numerical projections of macroeconomic indicators carried out by World Bank country teams for Unified Surveys for fiscal years 1991-97. He studies the accuracy of short-term projects (for the current year, first year, and three years ahead) for 23 countries in the different World Bank regions. He also compares the Unified Survey projections with the International Monetary Fund's (IMF's) projections for its fall World Economic Outlook (WEO). He finds that: 1) The Unified Survey projections are inaccurate when evaluated over the whole period investigated (1990-96). However, their accuracy has improved over time. 2) Improvements are notable in projections for investment, GDP inflation, and government deficit. Projections of external indicators - such as import and export growth - are still substantially inaccurate and should be greatly improved. 3) The Unified Survey projections are as accurate as - or more accurate than - the WEO projections. 4) One cannot characterize the United Survey projections as optimistic. This is the first systematic attempt to evaluate the accuracy of country team macroeconomic projections over time and the first to compare these with the IMF's WEO projections.Poverty Impact Evaluation,Economic Theory&Research,Scientific Research&Science Parks,Public Health Promotion,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Scientific Research&Science Parks,Science Education,Poverty Impact Evaluation,Governance Indicators

Economic growth, income distribution, and poverty in Poland during transition

The authors attempt to analyze the linkages between macroeconomic policies and economic growth variables, their movement over time, and their impact on poverty in the case of Poland. Poland, a middle-income country, is of particular interest because its data sources allow for a relatively detailed analysis of such developments, and the macroeconomic environment and the economic growth variables show a relatively sizable degree of variance. In addition, Poland has struggled in the past few years to reduce poverty while still experiencing positive economic growth. The authors show that in Poland, poverty-reducing growth depends heavily on the ability of the economy to generate jobs. During the early years of transition, net job growth was positive, while after the Russian crisis of 1998, productivity gains were accomplished mostly through labor shedding, henceforth, increasing poverty in Poland. In addition, the authors identify how fiscal and social protection policies affect income distribution and poverty in Poland.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Services&Transfers to Poor,Poverty Impact Evaluation,Economic Conditions and Volatility,Inequality,Governance Indicators,Environmental Economics&Policies,Achieving Shared Growth,Economic Theory&Research

Is growth bad for the environment? Pollution, abatement, and endogenous growth

The authors investigate the implications of pollution as a byproduct of production and analyze how environmental concern affects the optimal rate of economic growth and optimal government policy. The government must levy taxes on income to finance both productive government spending and abatement activities. It must levy an optimal tax. Too high a tax rate harms prospects for growth and too low a tax rate is bad for the environment. The authors distinguish between two approaches to incorporate the environment into the model stock approach and the flow approach. The flow approach assumes that the level of environmental quality changes instantly if production or abatement levels change (this is relevant for analyzing externalities associated, for example, with noise). The stock approach assumes that pollution and abatement indirectly influence the environment by affecting the rate of change in the environment over time (this is more relevant for analyzing problems of acid rain). They conclude that: win-win situations (in which improvements in economic growth and environmental quality go hand in hand) cannot arise under the flow approach, but can arise under the stock approach - if and only if the intertemporal elasticity of substitution exceeds unity; and maximizing the economy's growth rate is never optimal unless consumers care nothing about the environment.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Growth,Governance Indicators,Public Sector Economics&Finance

Two-sector disequilibrium growth

We investigate the effects of (i) profit distribution to either laborers or capital-owners, (ii) sector-specific or efficient rationing schemes, and (iii) government consumption in a two-sector disequilibrium growth model with sluggish real wage rate adjustment (which affects capital accumulation)

On opulence driven poverty traps

Endogenous population growth, i.e., making the rate of population growth dependent on society's opulence, causes parametric changes to have a larger impact and can cause multiplicity of steady states in a dynamic intertemporal optimization framework. This provides a simple explanation for the possibility of differing growth paths between countries (using a standard production function) or another explanation of the poverty trap. We give two examples (opulence sensitivity and production sensitivity) that both give rise to three steady states in which poor (rich) countries will evolve over time to the low (high) income steady state. In both examples there are middle income countries that will choose the low (high) income steady state if they are impatient (patient), where patience is measured through the rate of time preference o. Foreign aid in the form of a large transfer of capital from abroad enables poor and impatient middle income countries to move to the high income steady state

Finding toxicological information: An approach for occupational health professionals

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>It can be difficult for occupational health professionals to assess which toxicological databases available on the Internet are the most useful for answering their questions. Therefore we evaluated toxicological databases for their ability to answer practical questions about exposure and prevention. We also propose recommended practices for searching for toxicological properties of chemicals.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used a systematic search to find databases available on the Internet. Our criteria for the databases were the following: has a search engine, includes factual information on toxic and hazardous chemicals harmful for human health, and is free of charge. We developed both a qualitative and a quantitative rating method, which was used by four independent assessors to determine appropriateness, the quality of content, and ease of use of the database. Final ratings were based on a consensus of at least two evaluators.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Out of 822 results we found 21 databases that met our inclusion criteria. Out of these 21 databases 14 are administered in the US, five in Europe, one in Australia, and one in Canada. Nine are administered by a governmental organization. No database achieved the maximum score of 27. The databases GESTIS, ESIS, Hazardous Substances Data Bank, TOXNET and NIOSH Pocket Guide to Chemical Hazards all scored more than 20 points. The following approach was developed for occupational health professionals searching for the toxicological properties of chemicals: start with the identity of the chemical; then search for health hazards, exposure route and measurement; next the limit values; and finally look for the preventive measures.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>A rating system of toxicological databases to assess their value for occupational health professionals discriminated well between databases in terms of their appropriateness, quality of information, and ease of use. Several American and European databases yielded high scores and provide a valuable source for occupational health professionals.</p

Occupational exposure limits for manufactured nanomaterials, a systematic review

The toxicological properties of manufactured nanomaterials (MNMs) can be different from their bulk-material and uncertainty remains about the adverse health effects they may have on humans. Proposals for OELs have been put forward which can be useful for risk management and workers' protection. We performed a systematic review of proposals for OELs for MNMs to better understand the extent of such proposals, as well as their derivation methods. We searched PubMed and Embase with an extensive search string and also assessed the references in the included studies. Two authors extracted the data independently. We identified 20 studies that proposed in total 56 OEL values. Of these, two proposed a generic level for all MNMs, 14 proposed a generic OEL for a category of MNMs and 40 proposed an OEL for a specific nanomaterial. For specific fibers, four studies proposed a similar value but for carbon nanotubes (CNTs) the values differed with a factor ranging from 30 to 50 and for metals with a factor from 100 to 300. The studies did not provide explanations for this variation. We found that exposure to MNMs measured at selected workplaces may exceed even the highest proposed OEL. This indicates that the application and use of OELs may be useful for exposure reduction. OELs can provide a valuable reference point for exposure reduction measures in workplaces. There is a need for more and better supported OELs based on a more systematic approach to OEL derivation

How the interrelated physical, social and organizational environment impacts daily life of residents with dementia on a Green Care Farm

Green Care Farms (GCF) are innovative long-term care environments and an alternative to regular nursing homes in the Netherlands. Following a culture change movement, GCFs have radically altered the care environment. Research suggests positive effects on residents. However, knowledge is limited regarding their physical, social and organizational environment. This article explores the care environment of 24-h GCFs for people with dementia and its impact on residents and their daily life. An ethnographic study using mixed methods was carried out at a GCF in the Netherlands between June and October 2021. Researchers lived on the GCF and completed 28 days of participatory observations in three groups. During the day, informal conversations were held with residents (; n; = 48), staff and family members. Twenty four semi-structured interviews were conducted with residents, their family members, staff and the managers, complemented by a focus group with staff. The physical environment was additionally assessed with the OAZIS-dementia tool. Data collection methods informed each other. Qualitative data was thematically analyzed, quantitative data descriptively. Four themes were identified as crucial during daily life on the GCF: stimulating the senses, engaging in purposeful activities, sharing responsibilities and creating a community in a new home. Realizing these topics in practice, physical, social and organizational environmental components were highly interrelated. The physical environment encouraged and facilitated meaningful in-/outdoor activities and social encounters. The organizational environment supported the use of the physical environment by aligning processes and transporting the vision. The social environment focused on collaboration and creating a home-like atmosphere by including residents in household- and farm chores. This community-building led to more meaningful activities and social interaction. In conclusion, this study revealed the central influence of the management in paving the way for a new form of care delivery. As leaders shape the three environments, the organization influences the design of the physical environment and the actions taking place within it. By creating a community, the care home benefits residents, their families and staff equally. The conscious interrelation and harmonization of the physical, social and organizational components of a long-term care environment has the potential to improve the daily life of residents

Is growth bad for the environment? Pollution, abatement and endogenous growth

Recentiy, the importance of environmental and economic "win-win" situations has been stressed, indicating that care of the environment requires economic growth, while economic growth in turn cannot take place without taking proper care of the environment. We generalize a popular endogenous growth model with constant returns to scale in a broad measure of the capital stock, by making consumers care not only about current and future consumption levels, but also about the current and future quali'y of the environment, to see under what circumstances "win-win" situations can arise. The capital stock is decomposed into private capital and productive government spending. Production of goods and services causes pollution which is detrimental to the environment. The government can invest in abatement processes to clean up the environment and in productive government spending by taxing production (= income). There is, therefore, both an environmental externality and a public good, i.e. productive government spending. This brings us within the realms of second-best economics. We investigate the decentralized market economy as well as the command economy. Two approaches to model the environment can be distinguished in the literature: the stock approach and the flow approach. The flow approach assumes that the level of environmental quality changes instantaneously if the production level changes or if the level of abatement changes and is particularly relevant for analysing the environmental externality associated with noise. The stock approach, on the other hand, assumes that pollution and abatement indirectly influence the environment by affecting the rate of change of the environment over time and is more relevant for analyzing the problems of acid rain