Policies to Reduce CO2 Emissions: Fallacies and Evidence from the United States and California

Since the 1990s, advocates of policy to prevent catastrophic climate change have been divided over the appropriate economic instruments to curb CO2 emissions-carbon taxes or schemes of emission trading. Barack Obama claimed that policies implemented during his presidency set in motion irreversible trends toward a clean-energy economy, with the years 2008-2015 given as evidence of decoupling between CO2 emissions and economic growth. This is despite California being the only state in the USA that has implemented a specific policy to curb emissions, a cap-and-trade scheme in place since 2013. To assess Obama's claims and the effectiveness of policies to reduce CO2 emissions, we analyze national and state-level data from the USA over the period 1990-2015. We find: (a) annual changes in emissions strongly correlated with the growth conditions of the economy; (b) no evidence for decoupling; and (c) a trajectory of CO2 emissions in California which does not at all support the claim that the cap-and-trade system implemented there has reduced CO2 emissions.Series: SRE - Discussion Paper

Long-run determinants of atmospheric CO2: Granger-causality and cointegration analysis

Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 grew annually 1.12 +- 0.48 parts per million (ppm) in 1958-1984, and 1.72 +- 0.54 ppm (mean +- standard deviation) in 1985-2009, so that the rate growth is growing itself. Natural phenomena that influence short-run changes in CO2 atmospheric levels (through their influence on CO2 emissions and sinks) are stationary processes that cannot explain the growth of CO2 levels at an increasing rate. Cointegration tests show at a high level of statistical significance that the annual increase of CO2 concentrations is roughly proportional to “human activities” as measured by the money value of the world economy and the size of the world population. We find that population and world GDP help to predict CO2 concentrations, but CO2 concentrations do not help to predict the othervariables; that is, there is Ganger causality from population and world economic output to CO2. Though the smallness of the time series involved and the theoretical and practical issues posed by cointegration allow only for a limited confidence in these results, they have obvious major implications. For business-as-usual conditions and a world economy growing annually 3.5%—the mean annual growth of the world economy since 1960—the required world population to maintain or reduce CO2 levels would be 1.3 billion or less. For a world population of 7 billion as the present one, CO2 atmospheric levels would decrease if the global economy contracted annually 24.5% or more.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/88162/1/Long-run determinants of CO2 - A3- Dec 2011+refs.pd

Macroeconomic effects on mortality revealed by panel analysis with nonlinear trends

Many investigations have used panel methods to study the relationships between fluctuations in economic activity and mortality. A broad consensus has emerged on the overall procyclical nature of mortality: perhaps counter-intuitively, mortality typically rises above its trend during expansions. This consensus has been tarnished by inconsistent reports on the specific age groups and mortality causes involved. We show that these inconsistencies result, in part, from the trend specifications used in previous panel models. Standard econometric panel analysis involves fitting regression models using ordinary least squares, employing standard errors which are robust to temporal autocorrelation. The model specifications include a fixed effect, and possibly a linear trend, for each time series in the panel. We propose alternative methodology based on nonlinear detrending. Applying our methodology on data for the 50 US states from 1980 to 2006, we obtain more precise and consistent results than previous studies. We find procyclical mortality in all age groups. We find clear procyclical mortality due to respiratory disease and traffic injuries. Predominantly procyclical cardiovascular disease mortality and countercyclical suicide are subject to substantial state-to-state variation. Neither cancer nor homicide have significant macroeconomic association.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/12-AOAS624 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

On Social Progress and Sustainability: Will Buenos Aires Exist when the Young of Today are Old?

Se presentan y cuestionan varios conceptos sobre sostenibilidad y progreso social, se dan alternativas y se analiza brevemente la relación entre crecimiento económico y progreso en condiciones de salud (medidas según la mortalidad de menores de cinco años) en la Argentina en los años 1960-2003. Se discuten algunas informaciones recientes referentes a las previsiones científicas de efectos del cambio climático y ciertos conflictos políticos suscitados por esas previsiones. Concepts related to sustainability and social progress are discussed and questioned. Alternative views are then discussed, and the relation between economic growth and progress in health conditions (as measured by the under 5 mortality rate) in Argentina in the years 1960-2003 is briefly analyzed. The paper concludes by discussing recent reports on scientific forecasts of the effects of climate change and some political conflicts triggered by those forecasts.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/79569/1/Progreo social y sostenibilidad - Buenos Aires.pd

Sobre progreso social y sostenibilidad: ¿Existirá Buenos Aires cuando los jóvenes de hoy sean viejos?

The concepts related to sustainability and social progress contained in a paper published in Salud Colectiva by Goñi and Goin are discussed and questioned. Alternative views are then discussed, and the relation between economic growth and progress in health conditions (as measured by the under 5 mortality rate) in Argentina in the years 1960-2003 is briefly analyzed. The paper concludes by discussing recent reports on scientific forecasts of the effects of climate change and some political conflicts triggered by those forecasts.Se presentan y cuestionan los conceptos sobre sostenibilidad y progreso social de un artículo de Goñi y Goin publicado en Salud Colectiva, se dan alternativas a la visión de dichos autores, se analiza brevemente la relación entre crecimiento económico y progreso en condiciones de salud (medidas según la mortalidad de menores de cinco años) en la Argentina en los años 1960-2003, y se discuten informaciones recientes referentes a las previsiones científicas de efectos del cambio climático y ciertos conflictos políticos suscitados por esas previsiones

Spijker y Gumà confirman que durante la crisis económica en España hubo una mejora de indicadores de salud

Jeroen Spijker y Jordi Gumà (1) analizan los cambios de un indicador subjetivo de salud en tres encuestas que se hicieron en 2006, 2010 y 2014 en España; según Eurostat, la tasa de desempleo alcanzó un mínimo de 6,1% en marzo de 2007 y durante la crisis subió hasta alcanzar un máximo de 26,3% en julio de 2013. Spiker y Gumà comparan tres situaciones: 2006, cuando la expansión económica, en gran parte debida al sector de la construcción (“el ladrillazo”), se acercaba a su final; 2010, cuando la recesión estaba en pleno desarrollo y el desempleo llegaba al 20%; y 2014, cuando la crisis comenzaba a remitir. Los resultados de Spijker y Gumà son, a mi juicio, uno más de los estudios que confirman que en economías de mercado asentadas, los periodos de recesión coinciden con mejoras de la salud.Discusión sobre: Spijker J, Gumà J. El efecto de la crisis económica sobre la salud en España según el nivel educativo y la relación con la actividad: ¿importa también la duración de la crisis? Salud Colectiva. 2018;14(4):655- 670. doi: 10.18294/sc.2018.129

Mortality and macroeconomic fluctuations in contemporary Sweden

Recent research has provided strong evidence that, in the United States in particular and in high- or middle-income economies in general, mortality tends to evolve better in recessions than in expansions. It has been suggested that Sweden may be an exception to this pattern. The present investigation shows, however, that in the period 1968–2003 mortality oscillated procyclically in Sweden, deviating from its trend upward during expansions and downward during recessions. This pattern is evidenced by the oscillations of life expectancy, total mortality, and age and sex-specific mortality rates at the national level, and also by regional mortality rates for the major demographic groups during recent decades. Results are robust for different economic indicators, methods of detrending, and models. In lag regression models macroeconomic effects on annual mortality tend to appear lagged 1 year. As in other countries, traffic mortality rises in expansions and declines in recessions, and the same is found for total cardiovascular mortality. However, macroeconomic effects on ischemic heart disease mortality appear at lag two and are hard to interpret. Reasons for the procyclical oscillations of mortality, for inconsistent results found in previous studies, as well as for the differences observed between Sweden and the United States are discussed.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/85375/1/Mortality & Macro Fluct in Sweden (EJP 2011).pd

Recessions and Mortality in Spain, 1980–1997

The relationship between economic fluctuations and mortality is assessed with data from Spain during the years 1980–1997, when national unemployment oscillated between 7% and 24%. Mortality rates of the Spanish provinces are modeled in fixed-effect panel regressions as functions of the demographic structure and the economic conditions. Unemployment effects on general mortality, sex-specific mortality, and mortality for major causes of death are negative, i.e., death rates increase procyclically when joblessness diminishes in an economic expansion. Homicides and female suicides are only weakly related or unrelated to economic fluctuations, but male suicides escalate countercyclically during economic downturns. L’article s’intéresse aux relations entre fluctuations économiques et mortalité en Espagne sur la période 1980–1997, au cours de laquelle le taux de chômage a oscillé entre 7 et 24%. Un modèle de régression à effets constants sur données de panel est appliqué aux taux de mortalité par provinces espagnoles, prenant en compte la structure démographique et les conditions économiques. Le chômage a un effet négatif sur la mortalité totale, la mortalité par sexe et les principales causes de décès. Autrement dit, les taux de mortalité augmentent quand, en phase d’expansion économique, le chômage diminue. Les homicides et les suicides féminins sont faiblement ou pas du tout liés aux fluctuations économiques alors que les suicides masculins augmentent lorsque la situation économique se détériore.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/42728/1/10680_2005_Article_4767.pd

Macroeconomic fluctuations and mortality in postwar Japan

Recent research has shown that, once the long-term declining trends are excluded, mortality rates in industrial countries tend to rise in economic expansions and fall in recessions. In the present work the comovements between economic fluctuations and mortality changes in postwar Japan are investigated by analyzing time series of mortality rates and eight economic indicators. To eliminate spurious associations due to trends, series were detrended either with the Hodrick-Prescott filter or through differencing. As previously found in other industrial economies, in Japan general mortality and age-specific death rates tend to increase in expansions and drop in recessions, both for males and females. The effect is slightly stronger for males, and particularly noticeable in those aged 45–64. Deaths attributed to heart disease, pneumonia, accidents, liver disease, and senility, making up about 41% of total mortality, tend to fluctuate procyclically, increasing in expansions. Suicides, and deaths attributed to diabetes and hypertensive disease, making up about 4% of total mortality, fluctuate countercyclically, increasing in recessions. Deaths attributed to other causes, making up about half of total deaths, don’t show a clearly defined relationship with the fluctuations of the economy.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/60935/1/Tapia - Economic fluct & mortality in postwar Japan (expanded version).pd