Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Summary Background Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. Methods We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung’s disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. Findings We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung’s disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middleincome countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in lowincome countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. Interpretation Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between lowincome, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

Distinguishing patients with laboratory-confirmed chikungunya from dengue and other acute febrile illnesses, Puerto Rico, 2012-2015.

Chikungunya, a mosquito-borne viral, acute febrile illness (AFI) is associated with polyarthralgia and polyarthritis. Differentiation from other AFI is difficult due to the non-specific presentation and limited availability of diagnostics. This 3-year study identified independent clinical predictors by day post-illness onset (DPO) at presentation and age-group that distinguish chikungunya cases from two groups: other AFI and dengue. Specimens collected from participants with fever ≤7 days were tested for chikungunya, dengue viruses 1-4, and 20 other pathogens. Of 8,996 participants, 18.2% had chikungunya, and 10.8% had dengue. Chikungunya cases were more likely than other groups to be older, report a chronic condition, and present <3 DPO. Regardless of timing of presentation, significant positive predictors for chikungunya versus other AFI were: joint pain, muscle, bone or back pain, skin rash, and red conjunctiva; with dengue as the comparator, red swollen joints (arthritis), joint pain, skin rash, any bleeding, and irritability were predictors. Chikungunya cases were less likely than AFI and dengue to present with thrombocytopenia, signs of poor circulation, diarrhea, headache, and cough. Among participants presenting <3 DPO, predictors for chikungunya versus other AFI included: joint pain, skin rash, and muscle, bone or back pain, and absence of thrombocytopenia, poor circulation and respiratory or gastrointestinal symptoms; when the comparator was dengue, joint pain and arthritis, and absence of thrombocytopenia, leukopenia, and nausea were early predictors. Among all groups presenting 3-5 DPO, pruritic skin became a predictor for chikungunya, joint, muscle, bone or back pain were no longer predictive, while arthritis became predictive in all age-groups. Absence of thrombocytopenia was a significant predictor regardless of DPO or comparison group. This study identified robust clinical indicators such as joint pain, skin rash and absence of thrombocytopenia that can allow early identification of and accurate differentiation between patients with chikungunya and other common causes of AFI

Characteristics and clinical features of participants at study enrollment by pathogen detected, acute febrile illness study, May 7, 2012–May 6, 2015, Puerto Rico.

<p>Characteristics and clinical features of participants at study enrollment by pathogen detected, acute febrile illness study, May 7, 2012–May 6, 2015, Puerto Rico.</p

Number of laboratory-positive dengue, chikungunya, influenza and other respiratory viral illness by month of illness onset, acute febrile illness study, May 7, 2012–May 6, 2015, Puerto Rico.

<p>Number of laboratory-positive dengue, chikungunya, influenza and other respiratory viral illness by month of illness onset, acute febrile illness study, May 7, 2012–May 6, 2015, Puerto Rico.</p

Number and proportion of enrolled participants by pathogens detected, overall and by age group, acute febrile illness study, May 7, 2012–May 6, 2015, Puerto Rico.

<p>Number and proportion of enrolled participants by pathogens detected, overall and by age group, acute febrile illness study, May 7, 2012–May 6, 2015, Puerto Rico.</p

Early predictors of laboratory-positive dengue versus all other acute febrile illnesses by age group, acute febrile illness study, May 7, 2012–May 6, 2015, Puerto Rico.

<p>Early predictors of laboratory-positive dengue versus all other acute febrile illnesses by age group, acute febrile illness study, May 7, 2012–May 6, 2015, Puerto Rico.</p

Clinical and epidemiologic characteristics of dengue and other etiologic agents among patients with acute febrile illness, Puerto Rico, 2012–2015

<div><p>Identifying etiologies of acute febrile illnesses (AFI) is challenging due to non-specific presentation and limited availability of diagnostics. Prospective AFI studies provide a methodology to describe the syndrome by age and etiology, findings that can be used to develop case definitions and multiplexed diagnostics to optimize management. We conducted a 3-year prospective AFI study in Puerto Rico. Patients with fever ≤7 days were offered enrollment, and clinical data and specimens were collected at enrollment and upon discharge or follow-up. Blood and oro-nasopharyngeal specimens were tested by RT-PCR and immunodiagnostic methods for infection with dengue viruses (DENV) 1–4, chikungunya virus (CHIKV), influenza A and B viruses (FLU A/B), 12 other respiratory viruses (ORV), enterovirus, <i>Leptospira</i> spp., and <i>Burkholderia pseudomallei</i>. Clinical presentation and laboratory findings of participants infected with DENV were compared to those infected with CHIKV, FLU A/B, and ORV. Clinical predictors of laboratory-positive dengue compared to all other AFI etiologies were determined by age and day post-illness onset (DPO) at presentation. Of 8,996 participants enrolled from May 7, 2012 through May 6, 2015, more than half (54.8%, 4,930) had a pathogen detected. Pathogens most frequently detected were CHIKV (1,635, 18.2%), FLU A/B (1,074, 11.9%), DENV 1–4 (970, 10.8%), and ORV (904, 10.3%). Participants with DENV infection presented later and a higher proportion were hospitalized than those with other diagnoses (46.7% versus 27.3% with ORV, 18.8% with FLU A/B, and 11.2% with CHIKV). Predictors of dengue in participants presenting <3 DPO included leukopenia, thrombocytopenia, headache, eye pain, nausea, and dizziness, while negative predictors were irritability and rhinorrhea. Predictors of dengue in participants presenting 3–5 DPO were leukopenia, thrombocytopenia, facial/neck erythema, nausea, eye pain, signs of poor circulation, and diarrhea; presence of rhinorrhea, cough, and red conjunctiva predicted non-dengue AFI. By enrolling febrile patients at clinical presentation, we identified unbiased predictors of laboratory-positive dengue as compared to other common causes of AFI. These findings can be used to assist in early identification of dengue patients, as well as direct anticipatory guidance and timely initiation of correct clinical management.</p></div

Clinical features of participants at enrollment, acute febrile illness study, May 7, 2012–May 6, 2015, Puerto Rico.

<p>Clinical features of participants at enrollment, acute febrile illness study, May 7, 2012–May 6, 2015, Puerto Rico.</p

Late predictors of laboratory-positive dengue versus all other acute febrile illnesses for all ages, acute febrile illness study, May 7, 2012–May 6, 2015, Puerto Rico^*.

<p>Late predictors of laboratory-positive dengue versus all other acute febrile illnesses for all ages, acute febrile illness study, May 7, 2012–May 6, 2015, Puerto Rico^{<a href="http://www.plosntds.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005859#t007fn001" target="_blank">*</a>}.</p